CSA Steaua Bucureşti v Metaloglobus prediction · Liga II

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 11:32

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 0–0 Metaloglobus CSA STEAUA BUCUREŞTI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CSA Steaua Bucureşti win~~50%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.912

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.845

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CSA Steaua Bucureşti win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: CSA Steaua Bucureşti 50% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–23–27
1′KICK-OFF CSA Steaua Bucureşti v Metaloglobus
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' CSA Steaua Bucureşti win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
45′HALF-TIME CSA Steaua Bucureşti 0–0 Metaloglobus
45′SECOND HALF CSA Steaua Bucureşti 0–0 Metaloglobus
48′We said CSA Steaua Bucureşti at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–38–24
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was CSA Steaua Bucureşti win 36%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 39–36–24
57′We said CSA Steaua Bucureşti at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–44–22
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' CSA Steaua Bucureşti win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
66′We said CSA Steaua Bucureşti at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–52–19
72′We said CSA Steaua Bucureşti at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–60–16
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' CSA Steaua Bucureşti win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
77′We said CSA Steaua Bucureşti at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–13
81′We said CSA Steaua Bucureşti at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' CSA Steaua Bucureşti win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
85′We said CSA Steaua Bucureşti at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Metaloglobus
90′0–0 at the end. Our 50% on CSA Steaua Bucureşti misses, and the record keeps it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
92′We said CSA Steaua Bucureşti at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–3
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Metaloglobus
FTFULL TIME CSA Steaua Bucureşti 0–0 Metaloglobus
FTCSA Steaua Bucureşti 0–0 Metaloglobus · CSA Steaua Bucureşti win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CSA Steaua Bucureşti are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CSA Steaua Bucureşti 50%, draw 23%, Metaloglobus 27%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on CSA Steaua Bucureşti v MetaloglobusBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

CSA Steaua Bucureşti win50%

Draw23%

Metaloglobus win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStadionul Steaua

Line-ups

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

Metaloglobus

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

Metaloglobus

9Days since last match7

Last match: 8 Oct · Liga II

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga II

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Metaloglobus	9	−4	11
17	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	9	−8	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

Formation not confirmed

6 I. Dinu

13 A. Ilie

19 B. Carvalho

20 F. Rasdan

30 I. Tolea

32 A. Abou

33 M. Simon

34 C. A. Albu

76 S. Rotaru

80 J. Gonzalez Mora

90 D. Garcia

Coach · Daniel Oprita

Substitutes

1 · I. Pletea

5 · C. D. Dorado Perez

11 · P. Caldieraro

14 · N. Popovici

17 · M. Bobaru

21 · A. Nofitovici

23 · C. Gonzalez

26 · M. Adascalitei

77 · L. Vlasceanu

Metaloglobus

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Gavrilas

4 G. Caramalau

6 L. Banu

7 J. Gutierrez

10 F. Purece

11 A. Irimia

14 A. Oancea

17 I. Ndon

21 M. Martac

22 R. Neacsu

75 Erico Da SIlva

Coach · Florin Bratu

Substitutes

5 · T. Pojar

8 · A. Pandele

9 · N. Constantinescu

12 · Junior Morais

13 · A. Sava

16 · A. Dumitru

19 · S. Todoran

33 · A. Soare

34 · I. Ailenei

77 · T. Vladut

78 · V. Stancovici

Our number · csa steaua bucureşti winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:26 · locked at kick-off

50% The market47%

Us50%

~~Market~~47%

We make CSA Steaua Bucureşti a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CSA Steaua Bucureşti v Metaloglobus~~1.77 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Liga II this season · since 23 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 11~~17 v 14

~~The market · CSA Steaua Bucureşti win~~47% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CSA Steaua Bucureşti win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 50% now. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CSA Steaua Bucureşti win	50%	47%	+3
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Metaloglobus win	27%	28%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	57%	54%	+3
Both teams to score	57%	57%	0
Over 1.5 goals	79%	76%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	35%	33%	+2
CSA Steaua Bucureşti or draw	73%	72%	+1
CSA Steaua Bucureşti clean sheet	30%	–	–
Metaloglobus clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.4 6.5 3.9 1 9.1 10.5 6.5 2.7 2 7.7 9.1 5.5 2.3 3 4.5 5.3 3.3 4 2.1 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CSA Steaua Bucureşti down, Metaloglobus across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,495 Liga II matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga II matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at home: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Metaloglobus away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for CSA Steaua Bucureşti, 1.24 for Metaloglobus. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MET 0–3 CSA · CSA 3–1 MET · MET 0–0 CSA · CSA 1–1 MET

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga II this season · since 23 Aug

CSA STEAUA BUCUREŞTI

DLDLWD2–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–1

METALOGLOBUS

WLLDWL2–1 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slatina	9	+10	22
2	FC Politehnica Timisoara	9	+11	21
3	CSM Reşiţa	9	+7	21
4	Chindia Targoviste	9	+10	18
5	Popești-Leordeni	9	+8	18
6	CS Afumati	9	+4	17
7	Metalul Buzău	9	+3	17
8	FC Bacau	9	+10	15
9	Cetatea Suceava	9	+6	15
10	Concordia	9	+3	15
11	Gloria Bistriţa	9	+3	15
12	Bihor Oradea	9	+4	12
13	ASA Targu Mures	9	−4	11
14	Metaloglobus	9	−4	11
15	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	9	−4	11
16	Unirea Slobozia	9	0	7
17	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	9	−8	6
18	Viitorul Şelimbăr	9	−8	6
19	Ştefăneşti	9	−13	6
20	CSM Satu Mare	9	−7	5
21	CS Dinamo București	9	−18	4
22	Dumbrăviţa	9	−13	3