CS Afumati v Ştefăneşti prediction · Liga II

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 11:42

CS Afumati 4–0 Ştefăneşti CS AFUMATI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CS Afumati win~~52%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.340

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.149

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CS Afumati win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: CS Afumati 52% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–24–23
2′Little has changed for our model: CS Afumati 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–23
23′A goal for CS Afumati on 23′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
29′29′ and it is 2–0: CS Afumati have scored. 2–0 · 94–5–1
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' CS Afumati win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' CS Afumati win: 52% at kick-off, 94% now
39′We said CS Afumati at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' CS Afumati win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' CS Afumati win: 52% at kick-off, 94% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' CS Afumati win: 52% at kick-off, 95% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' CS Afumati win: 52% at kick-off, 95% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' CS Afumati win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' CS Afumati win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' CS Afumati win: 52% at kick-off, 95% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' CS Afumati win: 52% at kick-off, 95% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' CS Afumati win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' CS Afumati win: 52% at kick-off, 95% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' CS Afumati win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' CS Afumati win: 52% at kick-off, 95% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' CS Afumati win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' CS Afumati win: 52% at kick-off, 95% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' CS Afumati win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
45′HALF-TIME CS Afumati 2–0 Ştefăneşti
46′SECOND HALF CS Afumati 2–0 Ştefăneşti
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Ştefăneşti
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' CS Afumati 3–0 Ştefăneşti
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' CS Afumati 4–0 Ştefăneşti
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Ştefăneşti
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' CS Afumati
FTFULL TIME CS Afumati 4–0 Ştefăneşti
FTCS Afumati 4–0 Ştefăneşti · CS Afumati win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

CS Afumati win52%

Draw24%

Ştefăneşti win24%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 09:00

VenueCNF Buftea

Line-ups

CS Afumati

Ştefăneşti

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

CS Afumati

Ştefăneşti

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	CS Afumati	8	0	14
19	Ştefăneşti	8	−9	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

CS Afumati

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Dumitrescu

3 A. Lazar

6 C. Sersescu

7 A. Enache

10 I. Zaina

11 G. Mihoreanu

15 L. Lis

17 C. Robicek

21 V. Gallo

25 A. Raicu

26 C. McCarthy

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · A. Paun

4 · M. Diomande

8 · M. Sacara

9 · M. Sanogo

12 · A. Cimpoesu

14 · V. Marica

16 · O. Kaplan

20 · V. Ghinet

24 · D. Stancu

30 · P. Strizu

Ştefăneşti

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Mociu

3 J. Patrascu

5 M. Bakayoko

7 M. Dumitru

11 R. Malaele

14 A. Gheorghe

19 S. Senciuc

20 G. Plumbuitu

23 S. Zimta

97 D. Patru

98 R. Bobocea

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · K. Dobozi

9 · S. Serban

10 · S. Gheorghe

26 · S. Stavrositu

44 · S. Ionita

77 · I. Man

90 · D. Matarau

99 · A. Lapadat

16 · A. Bivolaru

Our number · cs afumati winPublished 11 Oct 09:04

52% The market69%

Us52%

~~Market~~69%

We make CS Afumati a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cs afumati win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 67% to 68% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CS Afumati win	52%	69%	−16
Draw	24%	19%	+5
Ştefăneşti win	24%	12%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	50%	61%	−10
Both teams to score	51%	52%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	80%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	29%	40%	−11
CS Afumati or draw	76%	88%	−11
CS Afumati clean sheet	37%	–	–
Ştefăneşti clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.3%

0123450 7.2 7.1 3.6 1 11.3 11.1 5.7 2.0 2 9.2 9.1 4.7 3 5.2 5.1 2.6 4 2.3 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CS Afumati down, Ştefăneşti across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,493 Liga II matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga II matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.7% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

CS Afumati at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ştefăneşti away: 0.25 scored, 2.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for CS Afumati, 1.03 for Ştefăneşti. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga II

CS AFUMATI

LDWWDW0–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0

ŞTEFĂNEŞTI

LWLLLL0–2 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slatina	9	+10	22
2	FC Politehnica Timisoara	9	+11	21
3	CSM Reşiţa	9	+7	21
4	Chindia Targoviste	9	+10	18
5	Popești-Leordeni	9	+8	18
6	Metalul Buzău	9	+3	17
7	FC Bacau	8	+11	15
8	Cetatea Suceava	9	+6	15
9	Concordia	9	+3	15
10	Gloria Bistriţa	9	+3	15
11	CS Afumati	8	0	14
12	ASA Targu Mures	9	−4	11
13	Metaloglobus	9	−4	11
14	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	9	−4	11
15	Bihor Oradea	8	+3	9
16	Unirea Slobozia	9	0	7
17	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	9	−8	6
18	Viitorul Şelimbăr	9	−8	6
19	Ştefăneşti	8	−9	6
20	CSM Satu Mare	9	−7	5
21	CS Dinamo București	9	−18	4
22	Dumbrăviţa	9	−13	3