CS Afumati v CSA Steaua Bucureşti prediction · Liga II

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CS AfumatiDrawCSA Steaua Bucureşti

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 09:00

Before kick-off · Match result · CS Afumati 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CS Afumati are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CS Afumati 42%, draw 24%, CSA Steaua Bucureşti 33%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on CS Afumati v CSA Steaua BucureştiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

CS Afumati win42%

Draw24%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti win33%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueCNF Buftea

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CS Afumati

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga II

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	CS Afumati	10	+2	17
17	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	10	−8	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cs afumati winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market45%

Us42%

~~Market~~45%

We make CS Afumati a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CS Afumati v CSA Steaua Bucureşti~~1.54 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in Liga II this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 7~~12 v 17

~~The market · CS Afumati win~~45% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CS Afumati win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CS Afumati win	42%	45%	−3
Draw	24%	27%	−3
CSA Steaua Bucureşti win	33%	28%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	54%	52%	+2
Both teams to score	57%	56%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	75%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	32%	31%	+1
CS Afumati or draw	67%	72%	−5
CS Afumati clean sheet	27%	–	–
CSA Steaua Bucureşti clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.0 7.8 5.1 2.3 1 9.0 11.3 7.5 3.4 2 6.7 8.6 5.6 2.5 3 3.5 4.4 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CS Afumati down, CSA Steaua Bucureşti across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,513 Liga II matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga II matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CS Afumati at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). CSA Steaua Bucureşti away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for CS Afumati, 1.33 for CSA Steaua Bucureşti. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~AFU 0–1 CSA · AFU 0–4 CSA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga II this season · since 29 Aug

CS AFUMATI

WWDWWL2–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 0–2

CSA STEAUA BUCUREŞTI

LDLWDD1–2 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Politehnica Timisoara	11	+13	27
2	Slatina	11	+9	25
3	Popești-Leordeni	11	+11	24
4	Chindia Targoviste	10	+12	21
5	Cetatea Suceava	11	+10	21
6	Metalul Buzău	11	+6	21
7	CSM Reşiţa	11	+3	21
8	Concordia	11	+8	19
9	FC Bacau	11	+12	18
10	Bihor Oradea	11	+8	18
11	Gloria Bistriţa	11	+1	18
12	CS Afumati	10	+2	17
13	Metaloglobus	10	−4	12
14	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	10	−5	11
15	ASA Targu Mures	10	−6	11
16	Unirea Slobozia	11	−1	8
17	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	10	−8	7
18	CS Dinamo București	11	−16	7
19	CSM Satu Mare	10	−7	6
20	Viitorul Şelimbăr	10	−13	6
21	Ştefăneşti	11	−19	6
22	Dumbrăviţa	11	−16	3