Chindia Targoviste v CSM Satu Mare prediction · Liga II

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Chindia TargovisteDrawCSM Satu Mare

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 09:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Chindia Targoviste 65%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chindia Targoviste are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chindia Targoviste 65%, draw 19%, CSM Satu Mare 15%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Chindia Targoviste v CSM Satu MareBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Chindia Targoviste win65%

Draw19%

CSM Satu Mare win15%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadionul Eugen Popescu

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chindia Targoviste

CSM Satu Mare

5Days since last match8

Last match: 20 Oct · Liga II

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga II

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Chindia Targoviste	10	+12	21
19	CSM Satu Mare	10	−7	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chindia targoviste winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 21 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

65% The market61%

Us65%

~~Market~~61%

We make Chindia Targoviste a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chindia Targoviste v CSM Satu Mare~~2.21 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in Liga II this season · since 29 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 21 v 6~~4 v 19

~~The market · Chindia Targoviste win~~61% · ours 65%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chindia Targoviste win The market, margin stripped

Published at 64%, 65% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chindia Targoviste win	65%	61%	+4
Draw	19%	23%	−4
CSM Satu Mare win	15%	16%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	60%	53%	+7
Both teams to score	53%	51%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	76%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	38%	33%	+5
Chindia Targoviste or draw	85%	84%	+1
Chindia Targoviste clean sheet	40%	–	–
CSM Satu Mare clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.3%

0123450 4.8 4.4 2.1 1 9.9 8.9 4.2 2 10.3 9.3 4.4 3 7.5 6.7 3.1 4 4.2 3.8 5 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Chindia Targoviste down, CSM Satu Mare across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,507 Liga II matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga II matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 6.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chindia Targoviste at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). CSM Satu Mare away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.21 goals for Chindia Targoviste, 0.93 for CSM Satu Mare. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~CSM 2–4 CHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga II this season · since 29 Aug

CHINDIA TARGOVISTE

WLWWWW3–1 · 2–3 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 4–2

CSM SATU MARE

LDDLDD0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Politehnica Timisoara	11	+13	27
2	Slatina	11	+9	25
3	Popești-Leordeni	11	+11	24
4	Chindia Targoviste	10	+12	21
5	Cetatea Suceava	11	+10	21
6	Metalul Buzău	11	+6	21
7	CSM Reşiţa	11	+3	21
8	Concordia	11	+8	19
9	FC Bacau	11	+12	18
10	Bihor Oradea	11	+8	18
11	Gloria Bistriţa	11	+1	18
12	CS Afumati	10	+2	17
13	Metaloglobus	10	−4	12
14	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	10	−5	11
15	ASA Targu Mures	10	−6	11
16	Unirea Slobozia	11	−1	8
17	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	10	−8	7
18	CS Dinamo București	11	−16	7
19	CSM Satu Mare	10	−7	6
20	Viitorul Şelimbăr	10	−13	6
21	Ştefăneşti	11	−19	6
22	Dumbrăviţa	11	−16	3