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Chindia Targoviste v Concordia

Chindia Targoviste

3–2Full time

Concordia

Liga II · SAT 10 OCT · Stadionul Eugen Popescu

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 11:42

Chindia Targoviste 3–2 Concordia CHINDIA TARGOVISTE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chindia Targoviste win~~48%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.400

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.364

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chindia Targoviste win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Chindia Targoviste 48% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–24–28
1′KICK-OFF Chindia Targoviste v Concordia
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Chindia Targoviste 1–0 Concordia
9′⚽ GOAL · 10' Chindia Targoviste 1–0 Concordia
14′Chindia Targoviste ahead on 10′ through G. Honciu. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–17–10
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Chindia Targoviste win: 48% at kick-off, 73% now
23′We said Chindia Targoviste at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–17–9
28′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Chindia Targoviste
35′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–8
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Chindia Targoviste 2–0 Concordia · G. Honciu
36′⚽ GOAL · 37' Chindia Targoviste 2–0 Concordia
45′SECOND HALF Chindia Targoviste 2–0 Concordia
54′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Chindia Targoviste
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Chindia Targoviste 3–0 Concordia · A. Baluta
59′⚽ GOAL · 60' Chindia Targoviste 3–0 Concordia
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Chindia Targoviste 3–1 Concordia · R. Mihai
63′⚽ GOAL · 64' Chindia Targoviste 3–1 Concordia
65′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Concordia
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Chindia Targoviste 3–2 Concordia · S. Samanes
78′⚽ GOAL · 79' Chindia Targoviste 3–2 Concordia
79′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Concordia
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Concordia
FTFULL TIME Chindia Targoviste 3–2 Concordia
FTChindia Targoviste 3–2 Concordia · Chindia Targoviste win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Chindia Targoviste win48%

Draw24%

Concordia win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 09:00

Venue · Stadionul Eugen Popescu

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Chindia Targoviste

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Mocan

2 F. Gaspar

4 D. Mboumbouni

5 M. Briceag

7 A. Baluta

8 Totti

10 C. Negut

11 G. Honciu

16 S. Issah

17 K. Doukoure

21 S. Camara

Coach · Leontin Grozavu

Substitutes

9 · R. Mihai

20 · B. Petre

23 · I. Rosu

27 · C. Costin

33 · G. Isvoranu

44 · A. Bilali

59 · D. Popadiuc

70 · X. Estacio

98 · M. Vladu

Concordia

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Briciu

5 L. Pareja

6 I. Pop

8 S. Carrasco

10 R. Ion

11 A. Chamorro

19 G. Iancu

20 I. Huluba

21 M. Dobrescu

33 D. Ghindovean

77 S. Samanes

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · D. Dumitrascu

14 · I. Padureanu

17 · S. Panoiu

22 · N. Carnat

23 · I. Soler

24 · D. Falcusan

25 · D. Sula

26 · Y. Stanciu

28 · G. Ganea

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Chindia Targoviste

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Mocan

2 F. Gaspar

4 D. Mboumbouni

5 M. Briceag

7 A. Baluta

8 Totti

10 C. Negut

11 G. Honciu

16 S. Issah

17 K. Doukoure

21 S. Camara

Coach · Leontin Grozavu

Substitutes

9 · R. Mihai

20 · B. Petre

23 · I. Rosu

27 · C. Costin

33 · G. Isvoranu

44 · A. Bilali

59 · D. Popadiuc

70 · X. Estacio

98 · M. Vladu

Concordia

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Briciu

5 L. Pareja

6 I. Pop

8 S. Carrasco

10 R. Ion

11 A. Chamorro

19 G. Iancu

20 I. Huluba

21 M. Dobrescu

33 D. Ghindovean

77 S. Samanes

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · D. Dumitrascu

14 · I. Padureanu

17 · S. Panoiu

22 · N. Carnat

23 · I. Soler

24 · D. Falcusan

25 · D. Sula

26 · Y. Stanciu

28 · G. Ganea

Our number · chindia targoviste winPublished 10 Oct 09:05

48% The market51%

Us48%

~~Market~~51%

We make Chindia Targoviste a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · chindia targoviste win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 48% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chindia Targoviste win	48%	51%	−2
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Concordia win	28%	24%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	56%	55%	+2
Both teams to score	57%	57%	0
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	34%	+1
Chindia Targoviste or draw	72%	76%	−4
Chindia Targoviste clean sheet	30%	–	–
Concordia clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.7 6.6 4.1 1 9.0 10.9 6.6 2.8 2 7.6 9.0 5.6 2.3 3 4.3 5.2 3.2 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chindia Targoviste down, Concordia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,485 Liga II matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga II matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.3% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 1.80 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chindia Targoviste at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Concordia away: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Chindia Targoviste, 1.24 for Concordia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~CON 0–1 CHI · CON 2–1 CHI · CHI 1–1 CON · CHI 0–1 CON

Form · last six in Liga II

CHINDIA TARGOVISTE

WLWLWW3–0 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 4–0 · 1–0

CONCORDIA

WLWLWL2–1 · 1–5 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 5–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slatina	8	+12	22
2	FC Politehnica Timisoara	9	+11	21
3	CSM Reşiţa	8	+5	18
4	FC Bacau	8	+11	15
5	Chindia Targoviste	8	+9	15
6	Popești-Leordeni	8	+5	15
7	Concordia	8	+4	15
8	Metalul Buzău	8	+2	14
9	CS Afumati	8	0	14
10	Cetatea Suceava	8	+4	12
11	Gloria Bistriţa	8	+2	12
12	Metaloglobus	8	−1	11
13	ASA Targu Mures	8	−3	11
14	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	8	−3	11
15	Bihor Oradea	8	+3	9
16	Viitorul Şelimbăr	8	−7	6
17	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	9	−8	6
18	Ştefăneşti	8	−9	6
19	Unirea Slobozia	8	−1	4
20	CSM Satu Mare	8	−7	4
21	Dumbrăviţa	8	−11	3
22	CS Dinamo București	8	−18	3