Cetatea Suceava v Slatina prediction · Liga II

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 11:38

Cetatea Suceava 2–0 Slatina CETATEA SUCEAVA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cetatea Suceava win~~41%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.535

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.622

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cetatea Suceava win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cetatea Suceava was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–34
1′KICK-OFF Cetatea Suceava v Slatina
9′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Slatina
13′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Cetatea Suceava
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Slatina
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Cetatea Suceava
40′Cetatea Suceava find the net on 40′. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–21–9
40′We published Cetatea Suceava at 41%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–21–9
40′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 71–21–9
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Cetatea Suceava 1–0 Slatina
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Cetatea Suceava win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Cetatea Suceava
45′HALF-TIME Cetatea Suceava 1–0 Slatina
46′SECOND HALF Cetatea Suceava 1–0 Slatina
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Cetatea Suceava
56′We published Cetatea Suceava at 41%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
59′A goal for Cetatea Suceava on 59′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Cetatea Suceava 2–0 Slatina
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Cetatea Suceava win: 41% at kick-off, 95% now
60′We published Cetatea Suceava at 41%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Slatina
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Cetatea Suceava
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Slatina
83′We published Cetatea Suceava at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Cetatea Suceava 2–0 Slatina
FTCetatea Suceava 2–0 Slatina · Cetatea Suceava win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cetatea Suceava are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cetatea Suceava 41%, draw 25%, Slatina 34%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Cetatea Suceava v SlatinaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Cetatea Suceava win41%

Draw25%

Slatina win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueAreni Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cetatea Suceava

Slatina

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga II

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cetatea suceava winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 04:11 · locked at kick-off

41% The market36%

Us41%

~~Market~~36%

We make Cetatea Suceava a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cetatea Suceava v Slatina~~1.43 – 1.29

~~Form · last six in Liga II this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 25~~8 v 1

~~The market · Cetatea Suceava win~~36% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cetatea Suceava win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cetatea Suceava win	41%	36%	+5
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Slatina win	34%	36%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%	0
Both teams to score	54%	56%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	74%	0
Over 3.5 goals	29%	30%	−1
Cetatea Suceava or draw	66%	64%	+2
Cetatea Suceava clean sheet	29%	–	–
Slatina clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.1 8.7 5.5 2.4 1 9.7 11.7 7.5 3.3 2 6.8 8.3 5.2 2.3 3 3.3 4.0 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cetatea Suceava down, Slatina across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,507 Liga II matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga II matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Cetatea Suceava at home: 2.20 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 5). Slatina away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Cetatea Suceava, 1.29 for Slatina. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga II this season · since 29 Aug

CETATEA SUCEAVA

DDWDWW1–1 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 2–0

SLATINA

DWWWLW0–0 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slatina	10	+11	25
2	FC Politehnica Timisoara	10	+12	24
3	Chindia Targoviste	10	+12	21
4	Popești-Leordeni	10	+10	21
5	CSM Reşiţa	11	+3	21
6	FC Bacau	10	+13	18
7	Concordia	10	+8	18
8	Cetatea Suceava	10	+8	18
9	Bihor Oradea	11	+8	18
10	Metalul Buzău	10	+3	18
11	CS Afumati	10	+2	17
12	Gloria Bistriţa	10	0	15
13	Metaloglobus	10	−4	12
14	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	10	−5	11
15	ASA Targu Mures	10	−6	11
16	Unirea Slobozia	10	−1	7
17	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	10	−8	7
18	CS Dinamo București	10	−15	7
19	CSM Satu Mare	10	−7	6
20	Viitorul Şelimbăr	10	−13	6
21	Ştefăneşti	10	−16	6
22	Dumbrăviţa	10	−15	3