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Cetatea Suceava v Dumbrăviţa

Cetatea Suceava

3–1Full time

Dumbrăviţa

Liga II · SAT 10 OCT · Areni Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 11:42

Cetatea Suceava 3–1 Dumbrăviţa CETATEA SUCEAVA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cetatea Suceava win~~61%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.234

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.177

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cetatea Suceava win at 61%.
1′KICK-OFF Cetatea Suceava v Dumbrăviţa
2′Much as we predicted: Cetatea Suceava was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–22–17
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Cetatea Suceava win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Cetatea Suceava
45′HALF-TIME Cetatea Suceava 0–0 Dumbrăviţa
46′SECOND HALF Cetatea Suceava 0–0 Dumbrăviţa
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Cetatea Suceava 1–0 Dumbrăviţa
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Cetatea Suceava 2–0 Dumbrăviţa
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Dumbrăviţa
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Cetatea Suceava 2–1 Dumbrăviţa
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Cetatea Suceava 3–1 Dumbrăviţa
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Dumbrăviţa
FTFULL TIME Cetatea Suceava 3–1 Dumbrăviţa
FTCetatea Suceava 3–1 Dumbrăviţa · Cetatea Suceava win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cetatea Suceava win61%

Draw22%

Dumbrăviţa win17%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 09:00

Venue · Areni Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Cetatea Suceava

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Micu

3 V. Cimbru

11 A. Aftanache

15 G. Raducan

21 V. Ilie

23 C. Perju

27 C. Golofca

33 G. David

80 L. Fulop

94 S. Ferhaoui

99 R. Sumanariu

Coach · Petre Grigoras

Substitutes

4 · S. Visinar

7 · A. Cerlinca

9 · V. Kyrychenko

10 · M. Ilie

13 · A. Ciobanu

14 · M. Bai

16 · R. Farcas

20 · C. Tucaliuc

29 · A. Burdet

30 · D. Bujor

77 · A. Mihai

Dumbrăviţa

Formation not confirmed

5 N. Pop

7 B. Vasile

10 R. Gunie

11 R. Curescu

17 A. Butu

21 D. Dussaut

24 C. S. Gladun

25 B. Panaite

27 S. Popovici

30 A. Seroni

99 R. Miklos

Coach · Florin Fabian

Substitutes

3 · F. Cibi

4 · A. Negrea

6 · D. Krista

13 · C. Padurariu

14 · D. Mucuta

15 · R. Butnarasu

18 · N. Leczki

19 · D. Datcu

22 · P. Toroc

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Cetatea Suceava

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Micu

3 V. Cimbru

11 A. Aftanache

15 G. Raducan

21 V. Ilie

23 C. Perju

27 C. Golofca

33 G. David

80 L. Fulop

94 S. Ferhaoui

99 R. Sumanariu

Coach · Petre Grigoras

Substitutes

4 · S. Visinar

7 · A. Cerlinca

9 · V. Kyrychenko

10 · M. Ilie

13 · A. Ciobanu

14 · M. Bai

16 · R. Farcas

20 · C. Tucaliuc

29 · A. Burdet

30 · D. Bujor

77 · A. Mihai

Dumbrăviţa

Formation not confirmed

5 N. Pop

7 B. Vasile

10 R. Gunie

11 R. Curescu

17 A. Butu

21 D. Dussaut

24 C. S. Gladun

25 B. Panaite

27 S. Popovici

30 A. Seroni

99 R. Miklos

Coach · Florin Fabian

Substitutes

3 · F. Cibi

4 · A. Negrea

6 · D. Krista

13 · C. Padurariu

14 · D. Mucuta

15 · R. Butnarasu

18 · N. Leczki

19 · D. Datcu

22 · P. Toroc

Our number · cetatea suceava winPublished 10 Oct 09:05

61% The market66%

Us61%

~~Market~~66%

We make Cetatea Suceava a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cetatea suceava win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 61% to 66% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cetatea Suceava win	61%	66%	−5
Draw	22%	21%	+1
Dumbrăviţa win	17%	13%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	52%	56%	−4
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	78%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	31%	35%	−5
Cetatea Suceava or draw	83%	87%	−4
Cetatea Suceava clean sheet	42%	–	–
Dumbrăviţa clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.8%

0123450 6.8 5.7 2.6 1 11.8 10.2 4.5 2 10.9 9.3 4.1 3 6.9 5.8 2.6 4 3.4 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cetatea Suceava down, Dumbrăviţa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,485 Liga II matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga II matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.3% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Cetatea Suceava at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 4). Dumbrăviţa away: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Cetatea Suceava, 0.88 for Dumbrăviţa. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga II

CETATEA SUCEAVA

WLDDWD2–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 2–2

DUMBRĂVIŢA

DDLLLL1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–6 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slatina	8	+12	22
2	FC Politehnica Timisoara	9	+11	21
3	CSM Reşiţa	8	+5	18
4	FC Bacau	8	+11	15
5	Chindia Targoviste	8	+9	15
6	Popești-Leordeni	8	+5	15
7	Concordia	8	+4	15
8	Metalul Buzău	8	+2	14
9	CS Afumati	8	0	14
10	Cetatea Suceava	8	+4	12
11	Gloria Bistriţa	8	+2	12
12	Metaloglobus	8	−1	11
13	ASA Targu Mures	8	−3	11
14	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	8	−3	11
15	Bihor Oradea	8	+3	9
16	Viitorul Şelimbăr	8	−7	6
17	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	9	−8	6
18	Ştefăneşti	8	−9	6
19	Unirea Slobozia	8	−1	4
20	CSM Satu Mare	8	−7	4
21	Dumbrăviţa	8	−11	3
22	CS Dinamo București	8	−18	3