Bihor Oradea v CSM Reşiţa prediction · Liga II

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 17:01

Bihor Oradea 2–0 CSM Reşiţa BIHOR ORADEA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bihor Oradea win~~51%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.363

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.474

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bihor Oradea win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bihor Oradea 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–23–27
1′KICK-OFF Bihor Oradea v CSM Reşiţa
16′Bihor Oradea find the net on 16′. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–16–10
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Bihor Oradea 1–0 CSM Reşiţa
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Bihor Oradea win: 51% at kick-off, 74% now
17′We said Bihor Oradea at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–16–10
24′A goal for Bihor Oradea on 23′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
24′We said Bihor Oradea at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Bihor Oradea 2–0 CSM Reşiţa
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Bihor Oradea win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Bihor Oradea
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' CSM Reşiţa
45′HALF-TIME Bihor Oradea 2–0 CSM Reşiţa
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' CSM Reşiţa
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Bihor Oradea
46′SECOND HALF Bihor Oradea 2–0 CSM Reşiţa
48′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 2–0 · 94–5–1
51′We said Bihor Oradea at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' CSM Reşiţa
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Bihor Oradea
67′SUBSTITUTION · 46' CSM Reşiţa · On: M. Bosnaeg · Off: E. Lenghel
67′SUBSTITUTION · 46' CSM Reşiţa · On: S. Savija · Off: S. Visic
83′We said Bihor Oradea at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Bihor Oradea
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Bihor Oradea
FTFULL TIME Bihor Oradea 2–0 CSM Reşiţa
FTBihor Oradea 2–0 CSM Reşiţa · Bihor Oradea win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bihor Oradea are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bihor Oradea 51%, draw 23%, CSM Reşiţa 27%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Bihor Oradea v CSM ReşiţaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Bihor Oradea win51%

Draw23%

CSM Reşiţa win27%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadionul Iuliu Bodola

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bihor Oradea

CSM Reşiţa

5Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga II

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	CSM Reşiţa	10	+5	21
11	Bihor Oradea	10	+6	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bihor oradea winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 18 Oct 00:20 · locked at kick-off

51% The market44%

Us51%

~~Market~~44%

We make Bihor Oradea a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bihor Oradea v CSM Reşiţa~~1.84 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Liga II this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 21~~11 v 5

~~The market · Bihor Oradea win~~44% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bihor Oradea win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bihor Oradea win	51%	44%	+7
Draw	23%	27%	−4
CSM Reşiţa win	27%	29%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	59%	54%	+5
Both teams to score	59%	58%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	77%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	37%	33%	+4
Bihor Oradea or draw	73%	71%	+2
Bihor Oradea clean sheet	29%	–	–
CSM Reşiţa clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.8 6.0 3.7 1 8.5 10.2 6.4 2.7 2 7.6 9.2 5.7 2.4 3 4.6 5.6 3.5 4 2.2 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bihor Oradea down, CSM Reşiţa across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,506 Liga II matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga II matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.5% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 4.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bihor Oradea at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). CSM Reşiţa away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Bihor Oradea, 1.26 for CSM Reşiţa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~4.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~CSM 2–3 BIH · BIH 2–3 CSM · BIH 1–3 CSM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga II this season · since 29 Aug

BIHOR ORADEA

WLWLWW4–0 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 2–0

CSM REŞIŢA

WWLWWL2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slatina	10	+11	25
2	FC Politehnica Timisoara	10	+12	24
3	Chindia Targoviste	10	+12	21
4	Popești-Leordeni	10	+10	21
5	CSM Reşiţa	10	+5	21
6	FC Bacau	10	+13	18
7	Concordia	10	+8	18
8	Cetatea Suceava	10	+8	18
9	Metalul Buzău	10	+3	18
10	CS Afumati	10	+2	17
11	Bihor Oradea	10	+6	15
12	Gloria Bistriţa	10	0	15
13	Metaloglobus	10	−4	12
14	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	10	−5	11
15	ASA Targu Mures	10	−6	11
16	Unirea Slobozia	10	−1	7
17	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	10	−8	7
18	CS Dinamo București	10	−15	7
19	CSM Satu Mare	10	−7	6
20	Viitorul Şelimbăr	10	−13	6
21	Ştefăneşti	10	−16	6
22	Dumbrăviţa	10	−15	3