Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Liga II › ASA Targu Mures v Chindia Targoviste

Back
Romania flag

ASA Targu Mures v Chindia Targoviste

ASA Targu Mures
2–4Full time
Chindia Targoviste

Liga II · TUE 20 OCT · Stadionul Trans-Sil

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 18:01
ASA Targu Mures 2–4 Chindia Targoviste ASA TARGU MURES WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said ASA Targu Mures win42%
The market said29%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.673
The market’s Brier score0.463

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said ASA Targu Mures win at 42%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: ASA Targu Mures was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–24–34
  3. 1′KICK-OFF ASA Targu Mures v Chindia Targoviste
  4. 2′A goal for Chindia Targoviste on 1′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 21–21–58
  5. 2′We said ASA Targu Mures at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–21–58
  6. 2′⚽ GOAL · 1' ASA Targu Mures 0–1 Chindia Targoviste
  7. 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' ASA Targu Mures win: 42% at kick-off, 21% now
  8. 2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Chindia Targoviste win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was ASA Targu Mures win 42%)
  9. 13′We said ASA Targu Mures at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–22–59
  10. 20′We said ASA Targu Mures at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 0–2 · 6–12–82
  11. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' ASA Targu Mures 0–2 Chindia Targoviste
  12. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' ASA Targu Mures win: 42% at kick-off, 6% now
  13. 22′Chindia Targoviste score on 21′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 6–11–83
  14. 23′SUBSTITUTION · 4' ASA Targu Mures · On: G. Dumitru · Off: A. F. Iancu
  15. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' ASA Targu Mures 1–2 Chindia Targoviste
  16. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' ASA Targu Mures win: 42% at kick-off, 17% now
  17. 26′ASA Targu Mures find the net on 25′. 1–2. 1–2 · 16–22–61
  18. 27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Chindia Targoviste
  19. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' ASA Targu Mures 1–3 Chindia Targoviste
  20. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' ASA Targu Mures win: 42% at kick-off, 5% now
  21. 29′A goal for Chindia Targoviste on 29′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 5–11–84
  22. 31′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 5–11–85
  23. 33′We said ASA Targu Mures at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–3 · 4–10–85
  24. 44′We said ASA Targu Mures at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 2–3 · 12–23–65
  25. 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' ASA Targu Mures 2–3 Chindia Targoviste
  26. 45′ASA Targu Mures score on 45′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 12–23–65
  27. 45′SECOND HALF ASA Targu Mures 2–3 Chindia Targoviste
  28. 46′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 11–23–66
  29. 47′HALF-TIME ASA Targu Mures 2–3 Chindia Targoviste
  30. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' ASA Targu Mures
  31. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' ASA Targu Mures
  32. 74′6 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 0–2–97
  33. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' ASA Targu Mures 2–4 Chindia Targoviste
  34. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' ASA Targu Mures win: 42% at kick-off, under 1% now
  35. 75′Chindia Targoviste find the net on 75′. 2–4. 2–4 · 0–2–98
  36. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' ASA Targu Mures
  37. 94′Full time, 2–4. We called ASA Targu Mures at 42% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–4 · 0–0–100
  38. FTFULL TIME ASA Targu Mures 2–4 Chindia Targoviste
  39. FTASA Targu Mures 2–4 Chindia Targoviste · ASA Targu Mures win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ASA Targu Mures are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ASA Targu Mures 42%, draw 24%, Chindia Targoviste 34%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on ASA Targu Mures v Chindia TargovisteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

ASA Targu Mures win42%
Draw24%
Chindia Targoviste win34%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStadionul Trans-Sil

Line-ups

ASA Targu Mures

Chindia Targoviste

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ASA Targu Mures

Chindia Targoviste

10Days since last match10

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga II

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga II

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Chindia Targoviste9+1018
14ASA Targu Mures9−411

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

ASA Targu Mures

Formation not confirmed

5 A. Horsia

6 A. F. Iancu

7 O. Siafa

9 M. Samake

13 M. Dohatca

24 M. Cioiu

30 Z. Demeter

55 E. Vinau

77 R. Trif

80 A. Moga

93 F. Iacob

Coach · Eusebiu Tudor

Substitutes

1 · R. Geanta

10 · Jair

11 · D. Faragau

12 · D. Barabas

16 · R. Calugar

20 · S. Ekollo

21 · B. Kocsis

23 · G. Dumitru

28 · L. Galdea

90 · A. Capac

Chindia Targoviste

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Mocan

2 F. Gaspar

6 D. Celea

16 S. Issah

5 M. Briceag

77 V. Bogdan

11 G. Honciu

8 Totti

7 A. Baluta

21 S. Camara

9 R. Mihai

Coach · Leontin Grozavu

Substitutes

33 · G. Isvoranu

27 · C. Costin

44 · A. Bilali

20 · B. Petre

17 · K. Doukoure

23 · I. Rosu

59 · D. Popadiuc

98 · M. Vladu

10 · C. Negut

Our number · asa targu mures winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 20 Oct 04:00 · locked at kick-off
42% The market29%
Us42%
Market29%

We make ASA Targu Mures a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · ASA Targu Mures v Chindia Targoviste1.61 – 1.42
Form · last six in Liga II this season · since 21 AugW3 D1 L2 · W4 D0 L2
Table places · points 11 v 1814 v 6
The market · ASA Targu Mures win29% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40%45% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 15:10
Our probability · ASA Targu Mures win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 29% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
ASA Targu Mures win42%29%+13
Draw24%27%−3
Chindia Targoviste win34%44%−10
Over 2.5 goals58%55%+3
Both teams to score59%59%0
Over 1.5 goals80%77%+3
Over 3.5 goals36%35%+1
ASA Targu Mures or draw66%56%+10
ASA Targu Mures clean sheet25%––
Chindia Targoviste clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%
0123450 5.2 7.0 4.9 2.3 1 8.1 10.8 7.5 3.6 2 6.4 8.6 5.9 2.8 3 3.5 4.6 3.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+ASA Targu Mures down, Chindia Targoviste across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025/26
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsASA 0–2 CHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga II this season · since 21 Aug

ASA TARGU MURES

WLWDWL1–0 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 4–3 · 0–1

CHINDIA TARGOVISTE

LWLWWW1–2 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Slatina10+1125
2FC Politehnica Timisoara10+1224
3Popești-Leordeni10+1021
4CSM Reşiţa10+521
5FC Bacau10+1318
6Chindia Targoviste9+1018
7Concordia10+818
8Cetatea Suceava10+818
9Metalul Buzău10+318
10CS Afumati10+217
11Bihor Oradea10+615
12Gloria Bistriţa10015
13Metaloglobus10−412
14ASA Targu Mures9−411
15CSM Ramnicu Valcea10−511
16Unirea Slobozia10−17
17CSA Steaua Bucureşti10−87
18CS Dinamo București10−157
19CSM Satu Mare10−76
20Viitorul Şelimbăr10−136
21Ştefăneşti10−166
22Dumbrăviţa10−153

The competition's standings before kick-off.