Uta Arad v CFR 1907 Cluj prediction · Liga I

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:02

Uta Arad 1–0 CFR 1907 Cluj CFR 1907 CLUJ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CFR 1907 Cluj win~~40%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.653

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.499

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CFR 1907 Cluj win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: CFR 1907 Cluj was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 34–26–39
1′KICK-OFF Uta Arad v CFR 1907 Cluj
23′7 shots for Uta Arad, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 32–31–37
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Renato Pantalon · CFR 1907 Cluj
30′Uta Arad have had 8 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 32–33–36
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was CFR 1907 Cluj win 33%)
45′Uta Arad have had 12 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 29–39–32
45′HALF-TIME Uta Arad 0–0 CFR 1907 Cluj
45′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Adi Nalić · CFR 1907 Cluj
46′SECOND HALF Uta Arad 0–0 CFR 1907 Cluj
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' CFR 1907 Cluj win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Dmitro Pospelov · Uta Arad
55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 26–45–29
55′We said CFR 1907 Cluj at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 1–0 · 71–22–7
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Uta Arad 1–0 CFR 1907 Cluj
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' CFR 1907 Cluj win: 40% at kick-off, 7% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Uta Arad win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 22%)
56′Uta Arad ahead on 55′ through omar sawy el. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–22–7
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' CFR 1907 Cluj · On: Andres Emil Sfait · Off: Lorenzo Biliboc
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' CFR 1907 Cluj · On: Ervin Omic · Off: Adi Nalić
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' CFR 1907 Cluj · On: Sergiu Buş · Off: Anton Krešić
65′We said CFR 1907 Cluj at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Uta Arad · On: Denis Alberto Taroi · Off: omar sawy el
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' CFR 1907 Cluj · On: Alexandru Păun · Off: Ovidiu Perianu
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' CFR 1907 Cluj win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Uta Arad · On: Ismet Sinani · Off: Marius Coman
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Uta Arad · On: Marinos Tzionis · Off: Jayson Papeau
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' CFR 1907 Cluj · On: Jelani Trevisan · Off: Andrei Cordea
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Alexandru Benga · Uta Arad
FTFULL TIME Uta Arad 1–0 CFR 1907 Cluj
FTUta Arad 1–0 CFR 1907 Cluj · CFR 1907 Cluj win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CFR 1907 Cluj are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Uta Arad 34%, draw 26%, CFR 1907 Cluj 40%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Uta Arad v CFR 1907 ClujBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Uta Arad win34%

Draw26%

CFR 1907 Cluj win40%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:15

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadionul Francisc von Neumann

RefereeMarcel Birsan

Line-ups

Uta Arad

4-2-3-1

CFR 1907 Cluj

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Uta Arad

CFR 1907 Cluj

8Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga I

Last match: 12 Oct · Liga I

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	CFR 1907 Cluj	11	0	16
12	Uta Arad	11	−3	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Uta Arad

4-2-3-1

1 Márcio Rosa

15 P. Ouaneh

4 A. Benga

60 D. Pospelov

6 A. Ivanov

5 S. Mino

8 A. Roman

42 O. El Sawy

77 J. Papeau

11 H. Abdallah

9 M. Coman

Coach · A. Mihalcea

Substitutes

20 · Denis Taroi

10 · M. Tzionis

7 · Ismet Sinani

17 · Roland Remus Patrik Sabau

19 · Denis Ile

33 · A. Gorcea

22 · R. Bădescu

CFR 1907 Cluj

3-4-3

31 O. Vâlceanu

3 I. Gelashvili

41 A. Krešić

42 R. Pantalon

47 C. Braun

6 O. Perianu

7 A. Nalić

45 M. Camora

11 A. Cordea

9 S. Dražić

17 L. Biliboc

Coach · M. Şumudică

Substitutes

99 · J. Dumas

21 · C. Ignat

86 · V. Kun

19 · S. Buș

23 · A. Ziblim

96 · Á. Tordai

77 · A. Sfait

40 · Leonard Saca

18 · E. Omić

29 · B. Omrani

66 · Cristian David

10 · A. Paun

Our number · cfr 1907 cluj winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:44 · locked at kick-off

40% The market30%

Us40%

~~Market~~30%

We make CFR 1907 Cluj a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Uta Arad v CFR 1907 Cluj~~1.31 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Liga I this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 16~~12 v 8

~~The market · CFR 1907 Cluj win~~30% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CFR 1907 Cluj win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. The market has gone from 32% to 30% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Uta Arad win	34%	42%	−8
Draw	26%	28%	−2
CFR 1907 Cluj win	40%	30%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	51%	51%	0
Both teams to score	55%	55%	0
Over 1.5 goals	75%	74%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	30%	−1
Uta Arad or draw	60%	70%	−10
Uta Arad clean sheet	25%	–	–
CFR 1907 Cluj clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.0 9.1 6.6 3.1 1 8.4 12.2 8.4 4.0 2 5.6 7.8 5.5 2.6 3 2.5 3.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Uta Arad down, CFR 1907 Cluj across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,690 Liga I matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga I matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Uta Arad at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). CFR 1907 Cluj away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Uta Arad, 1.42 for CFR 1907 Cluj. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~UTA 0–1 CFR · CFR 1–1 UTA · UTA 1–4 CFR · CFR 1–3 UTA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga I this season · since 22 Aug

UTA ARAD

DWWLWL0–0 · 3–1 · 5–1 · 2–4 · 1–0 · 0–2

CFR 1907 CLUJ

WDLWLW3–2 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Bucuresti	12	+20	29
2	Rapid	12	+11	27
3	Universitatea Craiova	11	+16	23
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	12	−1	20
5	Universitatea Cluj	11	+2	18
6	Farul Constanta	11	+2	17
7	Corvinul Hunedoara	12	+1	16
8	CFR 1907 Cluj	11	0	16
9	FCSB	11	−3	15
10	FC Botosani	12	+2	14
11	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	12	−5	14
12	Uta Arad	11	−3	12
13	Oţelul	12	−5	11
14	Arges Pitesti	11	−5	11
15	FC Voluntari	11	−14	8
16	Csikszereda	12	−18	2