Universitatea Craiova v Farul Constanta prediction · Liga I

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 21:31

Universitatea Craiova 2–0 Farul Constanta UNIVERSITATEA CRAIOVA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Universitatea Craiova win~~64%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.196

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.161

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Universitatea Craiova win at 64%.
1′KICK-OFF Universitatea Craiova v Farul Constanta
2′Little has changed for our model: Universitatea Craiova 64% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 64–21–15
15′We said Universitatea Craiova at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–11–4
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Universitatea Craiova 1–0 Farul Constanta
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Universitatea Craiova win: 64% at kick-off, 85% now
16′16′: Simon Elisor on the scoresheet for Universitatea Craiova, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 85–11–4
22′We said Universitatea Craiova at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–12–4
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 84–12–4
45′HALF-TIME Universitatea Craiova 1–0 Farul Constanta
45′SECOND HALF Universitatea Craiova 1–0 Farul Constanta
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Farul Constanta · On: Narek Grigoryan · Off: Gustavo Marins
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Farul Constanta · On: Alexandru Goncear · Off: Răzvan Marincean
48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Ionuț Vână · Farul Constanta
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Luca Băsceanu · Universitatea Craiova
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Universitatea Craiova · On: Nicușor Bancu · Off: Ronaldo Romario Webster
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Universitatea Craiova · On: Alexandru Cicâldău · Off: Samuel Teles
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Universitatea Craiova · On: Stefan Baiaram · Off: Luca Băsceanu
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Universitatea Craiova · On: Vladimir Screciu · Off: Baptiste Roux
74′We said Universitatea Craiova at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Farul Constanta · On: Nicolas Popescu · Off: Tony Njike
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Universitatea Craiova · On: Assad Al-Hamlawi · Off: Simon Elisor
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Farul Constanta · On: Valentin Constantin Ticu · Off: Ionuț Larie
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Universitatea Craiova win: 64% at kick-off, 94% now
83′We said Universitatea Craiova at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′We said Universitatea Craiova at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Universitatea Craiova 2–0 Farul Constanta
88′Universitatea Craiova ahead on 87′ through Oleksandr Romanchuk. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Nikola Stevanović · Universitatea Craiova
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Nicolas Popescu · Farul Constanta
FTFULL TIME Universitatea Craiova 2–0 Farul Constanta
FTUniversitatea Craiova 2–0 Farul Constanta · Universitatea Craiova win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Universitatea Craiova are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Universitatea Craiova 64%, draw 21%, Farul Constanta 15%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Universitatea Craiova v Farul ConstantaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Universitatea Craiova win64%

Draw21%

Farul Constanta win15%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadionul Ion Oblemenco

RefereeIulian Calin

Line-ups

Universitatea Craiova

3-4-3

Farul Constanta

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Universitatea Craiova

Farul Constanta

3Days since last match7

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga I

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Universitatea Craiova	11	+16	23
6	Farul Constanta	11	+2	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Universitatea Craiova

3-4-3

21 L. Popescu

3 O. Romanchuk

24 N. Stevanović

5 B. Roux

17 C. Mora

23 Samuel Teles

8 T. Băluță

31 R. Webster

30 D. Matei

22 S. Elisor

29 L. Băsceanu

Coach · Filipe Coelho

Substitutes

10 · Ș. Baiaram

11 · N. Bancu

19 · Heriberto Tavares

20 · A. Cicâldău

4 · A. Crețu

1 · A. Maxim

7 · S. Nsimba

18 · M. Rădulescu

16 · João Lameira

90 · R. Sava

6 · V. Screciu

9 · A. Al Hamlawi

Farul Constanta

3-4-3

12 R. Munteanu

6 V. Dican

17 I. Larie

4 Gustavo Marins

24 S. Bouzamoucha

23 T. Njiké

70 M. Ahlinvi

11 C. Ganea

8 I. Vînă

99 Răzvan Marincean

20 E. Rădăslăvescu

Coach · Ovidiu Sabău

Substitutes

2 · D. Maftei

33 · João Ferreira

9 · M. Hyseni

30 · N. Grigoryan

29 · A. Goncear

1 · A. Buzbuchi

3 · V. Țicu

71 · R. Tănasă

27 · Hassane Rachid Seyd Sabour Traoré

80 · N. Popescu

Our number · universitatea craiova winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

64% The market68%

Us64%

~~Market~~68%

We make Universitatea Craiova a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Universitatea Craiova v Farul Constanta~~2.00 – 0.83

~~Form · last six in Liga I this season · since 23 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 23 v 17~~3 v 6

~~The market · Universitatea Craiova win~~68% · ours 64%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Universitatea Craiova win The market, margin stripped

Published at 65%, 64% now. The market has gone from 62% to 68% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Universitatea Craiova win	64%	68%	−4
Draw	21%	20%	+1
Farul Constanta win	15%	13%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	54%	57%	−3
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	36%	−4
Universitatea Craiova or draw	85%	87%	−2
Universitatea Craiova clean sheet	44%	–	–
Farul Constanta clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.6%

0123450 6.3 4.8 2.1 1 11.6 9.9 4.1 2 11.6 9.6 4.0 3 7.7 6.4 2.7 4 3.9 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Universitatea Craiova down, Farul Constanta across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,690 Liga I matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga I matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Universitatea Craiova at home: 3.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Farul Constanta away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.00 goals for Universitatea Craiova, 0.83 for Farul Constanta. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 18:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FAR 4–1 UNI · UNI 2–0 FAR · UNI 1–0 FAR · FAR 3–2 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga I this season · since 23 Aug

UNIVERSITATEA CRAIOVA

WDWWWW3–1 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 5–0 · 1–0

FARUL CONSTANTA

DDDWLW1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 4–2 · 0–4 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Bucuresti	12	+20	29
2	Rapid	12	+11	27
3	Universitatea Craiova	11	+16	23
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	12	−1	20
5	Universitatea Cluj	11	+2	18
6	Farul Constanta	11	+2	17
7	Corvinul Hunedoara	12	+1	16
8	CFR 1907 Cluj	11	0	16
9	FCSB	11	−3	15
10	FC Botosani	12	+2	14
11	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	12	−5	14
12	Uta Arad	11	−3	12
13	Oţelul	12	−5	11
14	Arges Pitesti	11	−5	11
15	FC Voluntari	11	−14	8
16	Csikszereda	12	−18	2