Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe v Universitatea Craiova prediction · Liga I

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheDrawUniversitatea Craiova

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Universitatea Craiova 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Universitatea Craiova are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 27%, draw 27%, Universitatea Craiova 46%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe v Universitatea CraiovaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe win27%

Draw27%

Universitatea Craiova win46%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueStadionul Municipal

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Universitatea Craiova

9Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga I

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Universitatea Craiova	12	+18	26
12	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	12	−5	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · universitatea craiova winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

46% The market61%

Us46%

~~Market~~61%

We make Universitatea Craiova a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe v Universitatea Craiova~~0.99 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in Liga I this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 14 v 26~~12 v 3

~~The market · Universitatea Craiova win~~61% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Universitatea Craiova win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe win	27%	16%	+11
Draw	27%	23%	+4
Universitatea Craiova win	46%	61%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	43%	51%	−8
Both teams to score	47%	49%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	69%	74%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	22%	30%	−8
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or draw	54%	39%	+15
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe clean sheet	25%	–	–
Universitatea Craiova clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 9.6 12.6 8.9 4.2 1 8.9 12.6 8.6 4.1 2 4.6 6.2 4.3 2.0 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe down, Universitatea Craiova across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,696 Liga I matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga I matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Universitatea Craiova away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe, 1.40 for Universitatea Craiova. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~UNI 2–1 SEP · SEP 1–2 UNI · UNI 3–2 SEP · SEP 1–3 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga I this season · since 29 Aug

SEPSI OSK SFANTU GHEORGHE

WLWLLD1–0 · 0–5 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

UNIVERSITATEA CRAIOVA

DWWWWW1–1 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 5–0 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Bucuresti	12	+20	29
2	Rapid	12	+11	27
3	Universitatea Craiova	12	+18	26
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	13	+1	23
5	Universitatea Cluj	13	+5	22
6	FCSB	12	−2	18
7	Farul Constanta	12	0	17
8	CFR 1907 Cluj	12	−1	16
9	Corvinul Hunedoara	13	−2	16
10	Uta Arad	12	−2	15
11	FC Botosani	13	0	14
12	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	12	−5	14
13	Arges Pitesti	12	−5	12
14	Oţelul	12	−5	11
15	FC Voluntari	13	−16	8
16	Csikszereda	13	−17	5