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Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe v Dinamo Bucuresti

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

0–2Full time

Dinamo Bucuresti

Liga I · FRI 9 OCT · Stadionul Municipal

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0–2 Dinamo Bucuresti DINAMO BUCURESTI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dinamo Bucuresti win~~37%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.588

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.265

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Bucuresti win at 37%.
1′KICK-OFF Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe v Dinamo Bucuresti
2′Little has changed for our model: Dinamo Bucuresti 37% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 34–28–38
5′🟨 YELLOW · 4' Cascardo Gustavo · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
16′SUBSTITUTION · 15' Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · On: B. Oteliță · Off: Cascardo Gustavo Corrected
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0–1 Dinamo Bucuresti
25′Dinamo Bucuresti ahead on 24′ through Martin Pascual. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–21–68
25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0–1 Dinamo Bucuresti · Martin Pascual
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Dinamo Bucuresti win: 37% at kick-off, 68% now
26′We said Dinamo Bucuresti at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 0–1 · 10–21–68
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 10–21–69
34′We said Dinamo Bucuresti at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0–2 Dinamo Bucuresti · Martin Pascual
37′Alberto Soro scores for Dinamo Bucuresti on 36′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–92
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Dinamo Bucuresti win: 37% at kick-off, 92% now
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0–2 Dinamo Bucuresti · Alberto Soro
38′We said Dinamo Bucuresti at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 0–2 · 2–7–92
45′HALF-TIME Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0–2 Dinamo Bucuresti
46′SECOND HALF Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0–2 Dinamo Bucuresti
53′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · On: Boris Cmiljanić · Off: Moses Dramwi Mawa Corrected
53′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · On: Dimitri Oberlin · Off: Victor Daguin Corrected
54′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · On: Raul Cîmpean · Off: Hunor. Batzula Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Dinamo Bucuresti · On: Matthias Verreth · Off: D. Zandbergen Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Dinamo Bucuresti · On: Diogo Pinto · Off: Daniel Armstrong Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Dinamo Bucuresti · On: Darío Benavides · Off: David Mario Irimia Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Dinamo Bucuresti · On: Ianis Târbă · Off: Mamoudou Karamoko Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · On: Aboubakar Keita · Off: Robert Silaghi Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Lindsay Rose · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
90′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Dinamo Bucuresti · On: Oliver Hintsa · Off: Catalin Cirjan Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Ianis Târbă · Dinamo Bucuresti
FTSepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0–2 Dinamo Bucuresti · Dinamo Bucuresti win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe win34%

Draw28%

Dinamo Bucuresti win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Stadionul Municipal

Referee · Viorel Nicusor Flueran

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

4-3-3

91 D. Lazar

2 Gustavo Cascardo

82 D. Virtej

31 L. Rose

3 F. Vianna

28 V. Daguin

6 N. I. Paun

7 R. Silaghi

17 D. Andrei

14 M. Mawa

23 H. Batzula

Coach · Ovidiu Burca

Substitutes

33 · S. Gyenge

4 · S. Karamoko

21 · A. Dobrosavlevici

25 · B. Otelita

77 · A. Aganovic

19 · G. Ghimfus

8 · A. Keita

11 · D. Oberlin

88 · C. Davordzie

27 · R. Cimpean

9 · B. Cmiljanic

Dinamo Bucuresti

4-4-2

36 A. Bellaarouch

20 D. Irimia

44 M. Pascual

15 N. Stoinov

31 R. Oprut

77 D. Armstrong

29 A. Soro

90 I. Marginean

10 C. Cirjan

97 D. Zandbergen

9 M. Karamoko

Coach · Nuno Campos

Substitutes

73 · A. Rosca

5 · I. Fetai

30 · M. Dutu

66 · S. Opris

22 · D. Benavides

19 · R. Radu

6 · M. Verreth

8 · D. Pinto

21 · C. Mihai

18 · O. Hintsa

26 · A. Mazilu

23 · I. Tarba

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

4-3-3

91 D. Lazar

2 Gustavo Cascardo

82 D. Virtej

31 L. Rose

3 F. Vianna

28 V. Daguin

6 N. I. Paun

7 R. Silaghi

17 D. Andrei

14 M. Mawa

23 H. Batzula

Coach · Ovidiu Burca

Substitutes

33 · S. Gyenge

4 · S. Karamoko

21 · A. Dobrosavlevici

25 · B. Otelita

77 · A. Aganovic

19 · G. Ghimfus

8 · A. Keita

11 · D. Oberlin

88 · C. Davordzie

27 · R. Cimpean

9 · B. Cmiljanic

Dinamo Bucuresti

4-4-2

36 A. Bellaarouch

20 D. Irimia

44 M. Pascual

15 N. Stoinov

31 R. Oprut

77 D. Armstrong

29 A. Soro

90 I. Marginean

10 C. Cirjan

97 D. Zandbergen

9 M. Karamoko

Coach · Nuno Campos

Substitutes

73 · A. Rosca

5 · I. Fetai

30 · M. Dutu

66 · S. Opris

22 · D. Benavides

19 · R. Radu

6 · M. Verreth

8 · D. Pinto

21 · C. Mihai

18 · O. Hintsa

26 · A. Mazilu

23 · I. Tarba

Our number · dinamo bucuresti winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

37% The market58%

Us37%

~~Market~~58%

We make Dinamo Bucuresti a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 21 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · dinamo bucuresti win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe win	34%	18%	+16
Draw	28%	24%	+5
Dinamo Bucuresti win	37%	58%	−21
Over 2.5 goals	42%	53%	−10
Both teams to score	48%	52%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	69%	76%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	22%	32%	−10
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or draw	63%	42%	+21
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe clean sheet	30%	–	–
Dinamo Bucuresti clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.8 11.0 6.9 2.9 1 10.5 13.1 7.8 3.2 2 6.2 7.4 4.5 3 2.4 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe down, Dinamo Bucuresti across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,678 Liga I matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga I matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.71 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Bucuresti away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe, 1.23 for Dinamo Bucuresti. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.71

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~DIN 1–1 SEP · SEP 1–1 DIN · SEP 2–1 DIN · DIN 0–3 SEP

Form · last six in Liga I

SEPSI OSK SFANTU GHEORGHE

DDWLWL0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 3–1 · 0–1

DINAMO BUCURESTI

WWDWWW1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Bucuresti	10	+16	23
2	Rapid	10	+8	21
3	Universitatea Craiova	10	+15	20
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	10	+1	19
5	Universitatea Cluj	10	+3	18
6	Farul Constanta	10	0	14
7	Corvinul Hunedoara	10	+2	13
8	CFR 1907 Cluj	10	−1	13
9	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	10	−3	13
10	Uta Arad	10	−1	12
11	FCSB	10	−4	12
12	FC Botosani	10	+2	11
13	Arges Pitesti	10	−4	11
14	Oţelul	10	−4	10
15	FC Voluntari	10	−13	8
16	Csikszereda	10	−17	1