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Petrolul Ploiesti v Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Petrolul Ploiesti
1–1Full time
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Liga I · SAT 17 OCT · Stadionul Ilie Oana

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Petrolul Ploiesti 1–1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe PETROLUL PLOIESTI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Petrolul Ploiesti win40%
The market said45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.744
The market’s Brier score0.793

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Petrolul Ploiesti win at 40%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Petrolul Ploiesti 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–30
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Petrolul Ploiesti v Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
  4. 26′A goal for Petrolul Ploiesti on 25′. 0–0 · 36–36–28
  5. 26′Teixeira leo scores for Petrolul Ploiesti on 26′. 0–0 · 36–36–28
  6. 27′We said Petrolul Ploiesti at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–20–8
  7. 27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Petrolul Ploiesti 1–0 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · Teixeira leo
  8. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Petrolul Ploiesti win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 73–20–8
  10. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Ovidiu Nicuşor Burcă · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
  11. 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Petrolul Ploiesti 1–1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
  12. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Petrolul Ploiesti win: 40% at kick-off, 34% now
  13. 34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Petrolul Ploiesti win 34%)
  14. 36′Doru Andrei scores for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe on 34′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 33–40–26
  15. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Boris Cmiljanić · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Petrolul Ploiesti 1–1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
  17. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Petrolul Ploiesti win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
  18. 46′SECOND HALF Petrolul Ploiesti 1–1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
  19. 51′We said Petrolul Ploiesti at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–49–23
  20. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Petrolul Ploiesti · On: israel ola · Off: Alejandro Bran Corrected
  21. 61′We said Petrolul Ploiesti at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–56–20
  22. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Nicolae Ionuț Paun · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
  23. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · On: Moses Dramwi Mawa · Off: Boris Cmiljanić
  24. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' mark tutu · Petrolul Ploiesti
  25. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Petrolul Ploiesti win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
  26. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · On: Aboubakar Keita · Off: Nicolae Ionuț Paun
  27. 70′We said Petrolul Ploiesti at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–66–16
  28. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Robert Silaghi · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
  29. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Petrolul Ploiesti · On: David Paraschiv · Off: Luciano Gaston Vega Albornoz
  30. 76′We said Petrolul Ploiesti at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–12
  31. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Petrolul Ploiesti win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
  32. 82′We said Petrolul Ploiesti at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–8
  33. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · On: Hunor. Batzula · Off: Doru Andrei
  34. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · On: Carl·Davordzie · Off: Dimitri Oberlin
  35. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · On: Victor Daguin · Off: Robert Silaghi
  36. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Petrolul Ploiesti · On: Tiberiu Căpuşă · Off: Sergiu Hanca
  37. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Petrolul Ploiesti · On: Calal Hüseynov · Off: Teixeira leo
  38. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Petrolul Ploiesti · On: Rareș Leescu · Off: mark tutu
  39. 89′We said Petrolul Ploiesti at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
  40. FTFULL TIME Petrolul Ploiesti 1–1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
  41. FTPetrolul Ploiesti 1–1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · Petrolul Ploiesti win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Petrolul Ploiesti are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Petrolul Ploiesti 40%, draw 30%, Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 31%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Petrolul Ploiesti v Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Petrolul Ploiesti win40%
Draw30%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:15

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadionul Ilie Oana

RefereeAndrei Chivulete

Line-ups

Petrolul Ploiesti

4-4-2

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Petrolul Ploiesti

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

6Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga I

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga I

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Petrolul Ploiesti11−119
11Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe11−513

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Petrolul Ploiesti

4-4-2

38 L. Zima

22 M. Țuțu

4 P. Papp

71 B. Malula

2 A. Dumitrescu

19 Léo Teixeira

20 S. Hanca

10 A. Bran

7 Rodrigo Martins

9 D. Nlundulu

8 L. Vega

Coach · Ricardo Sousa

Substitutes

66 · T. Căpușă

28 · M. Costache

18 · C. Hüseynov

80 · M. Ioniță

99 · O. Dele

30 · R. Leescu

29 · K. Ludewig

40 · R. Manolache

21 · David Ionut

1 · Ștefan Alexandru Rădulescu

24 · Adam Zaian

26 · Liviu Argeșanu

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

4-3-3

33 S. Gyenge

25 B. Oteliță

31 L. Rose

4 S. Karamoko

3 Fábio Vianna

6 N. Păun

7 R. Silaghi

27 Raul Cîmpean

17 D. Andrei

9 B. Cmiljanić

11 D. Oberlin

Coach · O. Burcă

Substitutes

91 · D. Lazar

82 · D. Vîrtej

8 · A. Keita

20 · Nacho Heras

19 · G. Ghimfuș

14 · M. Mawa

21 · A. Dobrosavlevici

88 · C. Davordzie

28 · V. Daguin

23 · Hunor Batzula

Our number · petrolul ploiesti winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
40% The market45%
Us40%
Market45%

We make Petrolul Ploiesti a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Petrolul Ploiesti v Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe1.17 – 0.98
Form · last six in Liga I this season · since 21 AugW3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 19 v 134 v 11
The market · Petrolul Ploiesti win45% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 14:13
Our probability · Petrolul Ploiesti win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Petrolul Ploiesti win40%45%−5
Draw30%28%+2
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe win31%27%+4
Over 2.5 goals36%47%−11
Both teams to score43%51%−8
Over 1.5 goals63%71%−8
Over 3.5 goals17%26%−9
Petrolul Ploiesti or draw69%73%−4
Petrolul Ploiesti clean sheet38%––
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe clean sheet32%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%
0123450 12.2 11.3 5.7 1 13.3 13.3 6.4 2.1 2 7.9 7.6 3.7 3 3.1 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Petrolul Ploiesti down, Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.33
Over 2.54 of 9
Both scored6 of 9
Last meetingsPET 2–1 SEP · PET 1–0 SEP · SEP 1–1 PET · PET 1–2 SEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga I this season · since 21 Aug

PETROLUL PLOIESTI

LWWDWL0–2 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–3

SEPSI OSK SFANTU GHEORGHE

DWLWLL1–1 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Dinamo Bucuresti12+2029
2Rapid11+924
3Universitatea Craiova11+1623
4Petrolul Ploiesti11−119
5Universitatea Cluj11+218
6Farul Constanta11+217
7Corvinul Hunedoara11+316
8CFR 1907 Cluj11016
9FCSB11−315
10FC Botosani12+214
11Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe11−513
12Uta Arad11−312
13Oţelul12−511
14Arges Pitesti11−511
15FC Voluntari11−148
16Csikszereda12−182

The competition's standings before kick-off.