Petrolul Ploiesti v CFR 1907 Cluj prediction · Liga I

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Petrolul PloiestiDrawCFR 1907 Cluj

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · CFR 1907 Cluj 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CFR 1907 Cluj are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Petrolul Ploiesti 32%, draw 28%, CFR 1907 Cluj 41%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Petrolul Ploiesti v CFR 1907 ClujBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Petrolul Ploiesti win32%

Draw28%

CFR 1907 Cluj win41%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Petrolul Ploiesti

CFR 1907 Cluj

8Days since last match13

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga I

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga I

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	13	+1	23
9	CFR 1907 Cluj	12	−1	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cfr 1907 cluj winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market37%

Us41%

~~Market~~37%

We make CFR 1907 Cluj a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Petrolul Ploiesti v CFR 1907 Cluj~~1.12 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Liga I this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 23 v 16~~4 v 9

~~The market · CFR 1907 Cluj win~~37% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CFR 1907 Cluj win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Petrolul Ploiesti win	32%	34%	−2
Draw	28%	30%	−2
CFR 1907 Cluj win	41%	37%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	44%	41%	+3
Both teams to score	49%	48%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	70%	66%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	23%	22%	+1
Petrolul Ploiesti or draw	59%	63%	−4
Petrolul Ploiesti clean sheet	28%	–	–
CFR 1907 Cluj clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.2 11.4 7.5 3.3 1 9.8 12.9 8.2 3.6 2 5.6 7.1 4.6 2.0 3 2.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Petrolul Ploiesti down, CFR 1907 Cluj across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,699 Liga I matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga I matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.5% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Petrolul Ploiesti at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). CFR 1907 Cluj away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Petrolul Ploiesti, 1.31 for CFR 1907 Cluj. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~CFR 2–1 PET · PET 1–0 CFR · CFR 2–0 PET · PET 0–0 CFR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga I this season · since 4 Sept

PETROLUL PLOIESTI

WDWLDW2–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 3–1

CFR 1907 CLUJ

DLWLWL0–0 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Bucuresti	12	+20	29
2	Rapid	13	+8	27
3	Universitatea Craiova	12	+18	26
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	13	+1	23
5	Universitatea Cluj	13	+5	22
6	FCSB	13	+1	21
7	Uta Arad	13	−1	18
8	Farul Constanta	12	0	17
9	CFR 1907 Cluj	12	−1	16
10	Corvinul Hunedoara	13	−2	16
11	FC Botosani	13	0	14
12	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	12	−5	14
13	Arges Pitesti	13	−6	12
14	Oţelul	12	−5	11
15	FC Voluntari	13	−16	8
16	Csikszereda	13	−17	5