Oţelul v Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe prediction · Liga I

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

OţelulDrawSepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Oţelul 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Oţelul are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Oţelul 44%, draw 28%, Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 28%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Oţelul v Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Oţelul win44%

Draw28%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe win28%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueStadionul Otelul

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Oţelul

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

15Days since last match14

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga I

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga I

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	12	−5	14
14	Oţelul	12	−5	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · oţelul winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

44% The market40%

Us44%

~~Market~~40%

We make Oţelul a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Oţelul v Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe~~1.35 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Liga I this season · since 28 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 14~~14 v 12

~~The market · Oţelul win~~40% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Oţelul win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oţelul win	44%	40%	+4
Draw	28%	30%	−2
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe win	28%	30%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	42%	41%	+1
Both teams to score	47%	48%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	68%	66%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	22%	−1
Oţelul or draw	72%	70%	+2
Oţelul clean sheet	37%	–	–
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.9 9.4 4.8 1 12.6 12.8 6.4 2.2 2 8.6 8.5 4.3 3 3.9 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oţelul down, Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,699 Liga I matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga I matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.5% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oţelul at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Oţelul, 1.01 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SEP 0–3 OTE · SEP 2–0 OTE · OTE 0–0 SEP · OTE 2–0 SEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga I this season · since 28 Aug

OŢELUL

DLLLLD2–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–1

SEPSI OSK SFANTU GHEORGHE

WLWLLD1–0 · 0–5 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Bucuresti	12	+20	29
2	Rapid	13	+8	27
3	Universitatea Craiova	12	+18	26
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	13	+1	23
5	Universitatea Cluj	13	+5	22
6	FCSB	13	+1	21
7	Uta Arad	13	−1	18
8	Farul Constanta	12	0	17
9	CFR 1907 Cluj	12	−1	16
10	Corvinul Hunedoara	13	−2	16
11	FC Botosani	13	0	14
12	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	12	−5	14
13	Arges Pitesti	13	−6	12
14	Oţelul	12	−5	11
15	FC Voluntari	13	−16	8
16	Csikszereda	13	−17	5