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FCSB v Rapid

FCSB
4–1Full time
Rapid

Liga I · SAT 24 OCT · Arena Națională

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:41
FCSB 4–1 Rapid FCSB WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said FCSB win45%
The market said40%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.453
The market’s Brier score0.545

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay25 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FCSB win at 45%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF FCSB v Rapid
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: FCSB 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–29
  4. 11′We said FCSB at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–23–56
  5. 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' FCSB 0–1 Rapid
  6. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' FCSB win: 45% at kick-off, 21% now
  7. 11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Rapid win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was FCSB win 44%)
  8. 12′Filip Stojiljković scores for Rapid on 11′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 20–23–57
  9. 16′We said FCSB at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–57
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 16–24–60
  11. 31′FCSB have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 16–24–60
  12. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' FCSB win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
  13. 35′We said FCSB at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–61
  14. 42′FCSB have had 9 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 12–24–63
  15. 43′SUBSTITUTION · 42' FCSB · On: Alexandru Stoian · Off: Paul Arnold Garita
  16. 45′HALF-TIME FCSB 0–1 Rapid
  17. 45′SECOND HALF FCSB 0–1 Rapid
  18. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FCSB · On: Aymen Boutoutaou · Off: David Miculescu
  19. 52′We said FCSB at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
  20. 56′12 shots for FCSB, 3 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 8–23–69
  21. 59′58′: Karlo Muhar on the scoresheet for FCSB. 0–1 · 7–23–70
  22. 59′We said FCSB at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–48–22
  23. 59′⚽ GOAL · 58' FCSB 1–1 Rapid · Karlo Muhar
  24. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' FCSB win: 45% at kick-off, 30% now
  25. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Rapid win 70%)
  26. 60′We said FCSB at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–49–22
  27. 62′16 shots for FCSB, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 28–51–21
  28. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Rapid · On: Vladan Bubanja · Off: Alexandru Dobre
  29. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' FCSB · On: Joao Paulo Fernandes · Off: Meriton Korenica
  30. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Rapid · On: Claudiu Petrila · Off: Olimpiu Moruțan
  31. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' FCSB win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
  32. 69′We said FCSB at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 2–1 · 82–15–2
  33. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' FCSB 2–1 Rapid
  34. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' FCSB win: 45% at kick-off, 82% now
  35. 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' FCSB win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 58%)
  36. 70′FCSB ahead on 69′ through Aymen Boutoutaou. 2–1. 2–1 · 83–15–2
  37. 71′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 83–15–2
  38. 74′We said FCSB at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  39. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' FCSB win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
  40. 79′Joao Paulo Fernandes scores for FCSB on 79′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  41. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Rapid · On: J. Kodor · Off: Chec Bebel Doumbia
  42. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Rapid · On: Ebenezer Annan · Off: Latif Ouedraogo
  43. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Rapid · On: Sheriff Sinyan · Off: Alexandru Paşcanu
  44. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' FCSB 3–1 Rapid · Joao Paulo Fernandes
  45. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' FCSB win: 45% at kick-off, 99% now
  46. 80′We said FCSB at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  47. 81′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  48. 81′We said FCSB at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  49. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' FCSB 4–1 Rapid
  50. 82′81′: Aymen Boutoutaou on the scoresheet for FCSB, making it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  51. 83′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  52. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FCSB · On: Dylan Batubinsika · Off: Risto Radunović
  53. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FCSB · On: Dennis Politic · Off: Juri Cisotti
  54. 90′4–1 at the end. Our 45% on FCSB comes in. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  55. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Constantin Grameni · Rapid
  56. FTFULL TIME FCSB 4–1 Rapid
  57. FTFCSB 4–1 Rapid · FCSB win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FCSB are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FCSB 45%, draw 25%, Rapid 29%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on FCSB v RapidBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

FCSB win45%
Draw25%
Rapid win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueArena Națională

RefereeHoratiu Fesnic

Line-ups

FCSB

4-2-3-1

Rapid

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FCSB

Rapid

5Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga I

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga I

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Rapid12+1127
6FCSB12−218

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FCSB

4-2-3-1

32 Ș. Târnovanu

2 V. Crețu

5 J. Dawa

3 André Duarte

33 R. Radunović

73 K. Muhar

4 Ricardo Padurariu

11 D. Miculescu

31 J. Cisotti

7 M. Korenica

14 A. Garita

Coach · L. Reghecampf

Substitutes

28 · A. Boutoutaou

21 · D. Batubinsika

8 · E. Gnahoré

97 · R. Labonne

18 · João Paulo

20 · D. Politic

98 · D. Popa

13 · M. Popa

17 · M. Popescu

77 · L. Stancu

90 · A. Stoian

Rapid

4-2-3-1

99 B. Ungureanu

19 R. Onea

5 A. Pașcanu

6 L. Kramer

66 W. L. Ouedraogo

44 C. B. Doumbia

8 C. Grameni

29 A. Dobre

80 O. Moruțan

7 M. Kamara

9 F. Stojilković

Coach · D. Pancu

Substitutes

77 · J. Kodor

18 · S. Sinyan

17 · S. Senciuc

10 · C. Petrila

23 · C. Manea

42 · A. Kumer

90 · T. Jambor

13 · D. Ciobotariu

22 · V. Bubanja

27 · E. Annan

16 · M. Aioani

20 · Andrei Sucu

Our number · fcsb winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
45% The market40%
Us45%
Market40%

We make FCSB a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · FCSB v Rapid1.54 – 1.19
Form · last six in Liga I this season · since 30 AugW2 D1 L3 · W5 D1 L0
Table places · points 18 v 276 v 2
The market · FCSB win40% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 18:29
Our probability · FCSB win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
FCSB win45%40%+5
Draw25%28%−3
Rapid win29%33%−4
Over 2.5 goals51%51%0
Both teams to score54%57%−3
Over 1.5 goals75%75%0
Over 3.5 goals29%31%−2
FCSB or draw71%67%+4
FCSB clean sheet31%––
Rapid clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%
0123450 6.9 7.7 4.7 1 9.9 12.0 7.0 2.8 2 7.7 9.0 5.3 2.1 3 4.0 4.6 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+FCSB down, Rapid across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.90
Over 2.57 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsFCS 2–1 RAP · RAP 2–2 FCS · RAP 1–2 FCS · FCS 3–3 RAP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga I this season · since 30 Aug

FCSB

LLDLWW1–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–5 · 1–0 · 2–1

RAPID

DWWWWW1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 4–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Dinamo Bucuresti12+2029
2Rapid12+1127
3Universitatea Craiova12+1826
4Petrolul Ploiesti13+123
5Universitatea Cluj13+522
6FCSB12−218
7Farul Constanta12017
8CFR 1907 Cluj12−116
9Corvinul Hunedoara13−216
10Uta Arad12−215
11FC Botosani13014
12Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe12−514
13Arges Pitesti12−512
14Oţelul12−511
15FC Voluntari13−168
16Csikszereda13−175

The competition's standings before kick-off.