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FCSB v Oţelul

FCSB

1–0Full time

Oţelul

Liga I · SAT 10 OCT · Arena Națională

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:01

FCSB 1–0 Oţelul FCSB WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FCSB win~~55%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.302

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.200

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FCSB win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: FCSB was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–23–21
1′KICK-OFF FCSB v Oţelul
3′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Habib Sylla · Oţelul
13′Much as we predicted: FCSB was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–26–21
13′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Ofri Arad · FCSB
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Valentin Crețu · FCSB
45′SECOND HALF FCSB 0–0 Oţelul
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Denis Bordun · Oţelul
47′SECOND HALF FCSB 0–0 Oţelul
51′🟥 RED CARD · 51' Oţelul
51′🟥 RED CARD · 51' Habib Sylla · Oţelul
54′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Oţelul · On: Dominick Zator · Off: Ze Turbo Corrected
54′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Oţelul · On: Alexandru Viorel Bălănică · Off: Denis Bordun Corrected
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' FCSB · On: Joao Paulo Fernandes · Off: Ofri Arad Corrected
56′SUBSTITUTION · 57' FCSB · On: Alexandru Stoian · Off: Paul Arnold Garita Corrected
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Giannis Christopoulos · Oţelul
64′⚽ GOAL · 65' FCSB 0–0 Oţelul · Alexandru Stoian
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' FCSB 1–0 Oţelul · Alexandru Stoian
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' FCSB · On: Dennis Politic · Off: Meriton Korenica Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' FCSB · On: Eddy Gnahoré · Off: Juri Cisotti Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Oţelul · On: João Paulino · Off: Andrei Ciobanu Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Oţelul · On: Dan Cristian Neicu · Off: Pedro Nuno Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Oţelul · On: Dragos Andrei Aftene · Off: Rafael Brito Corrected
FTFULL TIME FCSB 1–0 Oţelul
FTFCSB 1–0 Oţelul · FCSB win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FCSB win55%

Draw23%

Oţelul win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:30

Venue · Arena Națională

Referee · George Catalin Roman

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

FCSB

4-2-3-1

32 S. Tarnovanu

2 V. Cretu

5 J. Dawa

3 A. Duarte

4 R. Padurariu

73 K. Muhar

15 O. Arad

11 D. Miculescu

31 J. Cisotti

7 M. Korenica

14 A. Garita

Coach · Marius Baciu

Substitutes

13 · M. Popa

33 · R. Radunovic

21 · D. Batubinsika

18 · Joao Paulo

8 · E. Gnahore

22 · M. Toma

77 · L. Stancu

20 · D. Politic

90 · A. Stoian

19 · D. Avram

Oţelul

4-3-3

1 C. Dur-Bozoanca

5 H. Sylla

3 G. Christopoulos

6 P. Iacob

28 M. Silva

17 A. Ciobanu

8 R. Brito

27 N. Pedro

24 D. Bordun

11 Ze Turbo

9 Patrick

Coach · Stjepan Tomas

Substitutes

13 · M. Contra

44 · D. Zator

16 · D. Neicu

18 · D. Aftene

7 · Joao Paulino

15 · D. Neicu

30 · M. Frunza

77 · A. Balanica

20 · R. Olteanu

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FCSB

4-2-3-1

32 S. Tarnovanu

2 V. Cretu

5 J. Dawa

3 A. Duarte

4 R. Padurariu

73 K. Muhar

15 O. Arad

11 D. Miculescu

31 J. Cisotti

7 M. Korenica

14 A. Garita

Coach · Marius Baciu

Substitutes

13 · M. Popa

33 · R. Radunovic

21 · D. Batubinsika

18 · Joao Paulo

8 · E. Gnahore

22 · M. Toma

77 · L. Stancu

20 · D. Politic

90 · A. Stoian

19 · D. Avram

Oţelul

4-3-3

1 C. Dur-Bozoanca

5 H. Sylla

3 G. Christopoulos

6 P. Iacob

28 M. Silva

17 A. Ciobanu

8 R. Brito

27 N. Pedro

24 D. Bordun

11 Ze Turbo

9 Patrick

Coach · Stjepan Tomas

Substitutes

13 · M. Contra

44 · D. Zator

16 · D. Neicu

18 · D. Aftene

7 · Joao Paulino

15 · D. Neicu

30 · M. Frunza

77 · A. Balanica

20 · R. Olteanu

Our number · fcsb winPublished 10 Oct 19:30

55% The market64%

Us55%

~~Market~~64%

We make FCSB a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fcsb win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 66% to 64% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FCSB win	55%	64%	−8
Draw	23%	21%	+2
Oţelul win	21%	15%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	54%	58%	−4
Both teams to score	53%	52%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	36%	−4
FCSB or draw	79%	85%	−6
FCSB clean sheet	36%	–	–
Oţelul clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 6.3 5.9 3.2 1 10.5 11.0 5.5 2 9.5 9.6 4.9 3 5.7 5.8 3.0 4 2.6 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FCSB down, Oţelul across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,680 Liga I matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga I matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FCSB at home: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Oţelul away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for FCSB, 1.03 for Oţelul. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 19:02. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~2 of 7

~~Last meetings~~FCS 4–0 OTE · OTE 1–4 FCS · FCS 1–0 OTE · OTE 1–4 FCS

Form · last six in Liga I

FCSB

WLLLDL3–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–5

OŢELUL

DWDLLL1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Bucuresti	11	+18	26
2	Rapid	10	+8	21
3	Universitatea Craiova	10	+15	20
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	10	+1	19
5	Universitatea Cluj	10	+3	18
6	Corvinul Hunedoara	11	+3	16
7	Farul Constanta	10	0	14
8	CFR 1907 Cluj	10	−1	13
9	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	11	−5	13
10	Uta Arad	10	−1	12
11	FCSB	10	−4	12
12	FC Botosani	10	+2	11
13	Arges Pitesti	10	−4	11
14	Oţelul	10	−4	10
15	FC Voluntari	11	−14	8
16	Csikszereda	10	−17	1