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FC Botosani v Uta Arad

FC Botosani

2–0Full time

Uta Arad

Liga I · SAT 10 OCT · Stadionul Municipal

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:06

FC Botosani 2–0 Uta Arad FC BOTOSANI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Botosani win~~45%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.459

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.563

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 40 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Botosani win at 45%.
2′KICK-OFF FC Botosani v Uta Arad
5′Little has changed for our model: FC Botosani 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–29
9′Sebastian Mailat scores for FC Botosani on 11′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 44–28–28
9′PENALTY MISSED · 9' Sebastian Mailat · FC Botosani
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' FC Botosani 1–0 Uta Arad · Sebastian Mailat
16′17′ and it is 1–0: Lucas de Vega Lima on the scoresheet for FC Botosani. 1–0 · 72–18–10
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' FC Botosani win: 45% at kick-off, 72% now
20′⚽ GOAL · 17' FC Botosani 2–0 Uta Arad · Lucas de Vega Lima
22′We said FC Botosani at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' FC Botosani win: 45% at kick-off, 91% now
27′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Denis Alberto Taroi · Uta Arad
27′SUBSTITUTION · 27' Uta Arad · On: Marinos Tzionis · Off: Denis Alberto Taroi Corrected
45′SECOND HALF FC Botosani 2–0 Uta Arad
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' FC Botosani 3–0 Uta Arad · Andrei Dumiter
54′⚽ GOAL · 11' FC Botosani 2–0 Uta Arad · Sebastian Mailat
54′⚽ GOAL · 17' FC Botosani 2–0 Uta Arad · Lucas de Vega Lima
54′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Denis Alberto Taroi · Uta Arad
54′SUBSTITUTION · 27' Uta Arad · On: Marinos Tzionis · Off: Denis Alberto Taroi Corrected
55′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Sota Mino · Uta Arad
56′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Lucas de Vega Lima · FC Botosani
68′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Alexandru Benga · Uta Arad
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC Botosani · On: Mykola Kovtalyuk · Off: Sebastian Mailat Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC Botosani · On: Ştefan Bodişteanu · Off: Zoran Mitrov Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FC Botosani · On: Charles Petro · Off: Lucas de Vega Lima Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Uta Arad · On: Dmitro Pospelov · Off: Samuel Gueulette Corrected
78′⚽ GOAL · 11' FC Botosani 2–0 Uta Arad · Sebastian Mailat
78′⚽ GOAL · 17' FC Botosani 2–0 Uta Arad · Lucas de Vega Lima
78′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Denis Alberto Taroi · Uta Arad
78′SUBSTITUTION · 27' Uta Arad · On: Marinos Tzionis · Off: Denis Alberto Taroi Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Uta Arad · On: Jayson Papeau · Off: Antoni Ivanov Corrected
78′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Lucas de Vega Lima · FC Botosani
78′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Sota Mino · Uta Arad
78′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Alexandru Benga · Uta Arad
78′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC Botosani · On: Mykola Kovtalyuk · Off: Sebastian Mailat Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC Botosani · On: Ştefan Bodişteanu · Off: Zoran Mitrov Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FC Botosani · On: Charles Petro · Off: Lucas de Vega Lima Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Uta Arad · On: Dmitro Pospelov · Off: Samuel Gueulette Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Uta Arad · On: Roland Remus Patrik Sabau · Off: robert badescu Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Uta Arad · On: Ismet Sinani · Off: Marius Coman Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FC Botosani · On: Mihai Bordeianu · Off: Enriko Papa Corrected
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Ştefan Bodişteanu · FC Botosani
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FC Botosani · On: Alexandru Tiganasu · Off: Hervin Ongenda Corrected
91′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Dmitro Pospelov · Uta Arad
FTFULL TIME FC Botosani 2–0 Uta Arad
FTFC Botosani 2–0 Uta Arad · FC Botosani win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FC Botosani win45%

Draw27%

Uta Arad win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:15

Venue · Stadionul Municipal

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

FC Botosani

4-3-3

99 G. Anestis

2 B. J. Bayeye

23 E. Diaw

4 A. Miron

73 N. Ilas

21 L. De Vega

67 E. Papa

26 H. Ongenda

11 Z. Mitrov

41 A. Dumiter

7 S. Mailat

Coach · Marius Croitoru

Substitutes

27 · I. C. Gurau

30 · A. Tiganasu

44 · R. Sadiku

25 · A. Suchianu

8 · R. Idowu

37 · M. Bordeianu

3 · C. Petro

77 · Gabriel Gama

9 · J. Markovic

10 · S. Bodisteanu

90 · M. Preda

22 · M. Kovtalyuk

Uta Arad

4-2-3-1

1 M. Rosa

14 S. Gueulette

4 A. Benga

22 R. Badescu

3 D. Alomerovic

6 A. Ivanov

5 S. Mino

11 H. Abdallah

8 A. Roman

20 D. Taroi

9 M. Coman

Coach · Adrian Mihalcea

Substitutes

33 · A. Gorcea

60 · D. Pospelov

7 · I. Sinani

10 · M. Tzionis

77 · J. Papeau

42 · O. El Sawy

17 · R. Sabau

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Botosani

4-3-3

99 G. Anestis

2 B. J. Bayeye

23 E. Diaw

4 A. Miron

73 N. Ilas

21 L. De Vega

67 E. Papa

26 H. Ongenda

11 Z. Mitrov

41 A. Dumiter

7 S. Mailat

Coach · Marius Croitoru

Substitutes

27 · I. C. Gurau

30 · A. Tiganasu

44 · R. Sadiku

25 · A. Suchianu

8 · R. Idowu

37 · M. Bordeianu

3 · C. Petro

77 · Gabriel Gama

9 · J. Markovic

10 · S. Bodisteanu

90 · M. Preda

22 · M. Kovtalyuk

Uta Arad

4-2-3-1

1 M. Rosa

14 S. Gueulette

4 A. Benga

22 R. Badescu

3 D. Alomerovic

6 A. Ivanov

5 S. Mino

11 H. Abdallah

8 A. Roman

20 D. Taroi

9 M. Coman

Coach · Adrian Mihalcea

Substitutes

33 · A. Gorcea

60 · D. Pospelov

7 · I. Sinani

10 · M. Tzionis

77 · J. Papeau

42 · O. El Sawy

17 · R. Sabau

Our number · fc botosani winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

45% The market39%

Us45%

~~Market~~39%

We make FC Botosani a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc botosani win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Botosani win	45%	39%	+6
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Uta Arad win	29%	33%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	47%	52%	−5
Both teams to score	51%	57%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	73%	75%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	31%	−5
FC Botosani or draw	71%	67%	+5
FC Botosani clean sheet	33%	–	–
Uta Arad clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.2 8.3 4.8 1 11.0 12.5 6.8 2.5 2 8.1 8.8 4.9 3 4.0 4.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Botosani down, Uta Arad across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,680 Liga I matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga I matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

15 previous meetings, 2.40 goals a meeting; 8 of 15 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Botosani at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Uta Arad away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for FC Botosani, 1.11 for Uta Arad. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 15:07. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

15 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 15

~~Both scored~~8 of 15

~~Last meetings~~UTA 3–1 FCB · UTA 2–1 FCB · FCB 2–1 UTA · UTA 1–0 FCB

Form · last six in Liga I

FC BOTOSANI

LWDWDL2–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 5–0 · 1–1 · 1–3

UTA ARAD

LDWWLW1–2 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 5–1 · 2–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Bucuresti	11	+18	26
2	Rapid	10	+8	21
3	Universitatea Craiova	10	+15	20
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	10	+1	19
5	Universitatea Cluj	10	+3	18
6	Corvinul Hunedoara	11	+3	16
7	Farul Constanta	10	0	14
8	CFR 1907 Cluj	10	−1	13
9	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	11	−5	13
10	Uta Arad	10	−1	12
11	FCSB	10	−4	12
12	FC Botosani	10	+2	11
13	Arges Pitesti	10	−4	11
14	Oţelul	10	−4	10
15	FC Voluntari	11	−14	8
16	Csikszereda	10	−17	1