FC Botosani v Petrolul Ploiesti prediction · Liga I

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 18:31

FC Botosani 1–3 Petrolul Ploiesti FC BOTOSANI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Botosani win~~48%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.871

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.805

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 39 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Botosani win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Botosani was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–28–25
1′KICK-OFF FC Botosani v Petrolul Ploiesti
27′Petrolul Ploiesti find the net on 27′. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–26–58
27′We said FC Botosani at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–26–58
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' FC Botosani 0–1 Petrolul Ploiesti
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' FC Botosani win: 48% at kick-off, 16% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Petrolul Ploiesti win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was FC Botosani win 42%)
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 15–26–59
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' mamadou diarra · FC Botosani
33′We said FC Botosani at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Marius Marian Croitoru · FC Botosani
39′We said FC Botosani at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–10–87
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' FC Botosani 0–2 Petrolul Ploiesti
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' FC Botosani win: 48% at kick-off, 3% now
40′Mario Ioniță scores for Petrolul Ploiesti on 39′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–88
41′SUBSTITUTION · 40' FC Botosani · On: Charles Petro · Off: Hervin Ongenda
45′HALF-TIME FC Botosani 0–2 Petrolul Ploiesti
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Botosani · On: Rijad·Sadiku · Off: Andrei Miron
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Botosani · On: Mykola Kovtalyuk · Off: Enriko Papa
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' FC Botosani
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Petrolul Ploiesti
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' FC Botosani win: 48% at kick-off, 36% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Petrolul Ploiesti win 96%)
46′SECOND HALF FC Botosani 0–2 Petrolul Ploiesti
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Botosani · On: Gabriel Gama · Off: Ştefan Bodişteanu
50′🟨 YELLOW · 45+5' Andres Dumitrescu · Petrolul Ploiesti
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Rodrigo Martins · Petrolul Ploiesti
54′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–99
54′54′: Rodrigo Martins on the scoresheet for Petrolul Ploiesti, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' FC Botosani 0–3 Petrolul Ploiesti
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Petrolul Ploiesti · On: Adam Zaian · Off: Sergiu Hanca
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Rijad·Sadiku · FC Botosani
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' FC Botosani · On: Jovan Marković · Off: Zoran Mitrov
65′FC Botosani pull one back on 65′ through Andrei Dumiter. 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–95
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' FC Botosani 1–3 Petrolul Ploiesti · Andrei Dumiter
66′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–4–96
66′FC Botosani pull one back on 64′ through Andrei Dumiter. 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–96
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Breston Malula · Petrolul Ploiesti
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' FC Botosani 1–3 Petrolul Ploiesti · Andrei Dumiter
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' FC Botosani 1–3 Petrolul Ploiesti · Rodrigo Martins
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' FC Botosani win: 48% at kick-off, under 1% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Petrolul Ploiesti win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 43%)
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Petrolul Ploiesti · On: Rareș Leescu · Off: Mario Ioniță
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Petrolul Ploiesti · On: Calal Hüseynov · Off: Luciano Gaston Vega Albornoz
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Petrolul Ploiesti · On: israel ola · Off: Dan N'Lundulu
84′A red card for FC Botosani on 83′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–3 · 0–0–100
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Teixeira leo · Petrolul Ploiesti
85′🟥 RED CARD · 83' Narcis Ilas · FC Botosani
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Charles Petro · FC Botosani
97′SUBSTITUTION · 90+6' Petrolul Ploiesti · On: Kilian Ludewig · Off: Rodrigo Martins
98′🟥 RED CARD · 90+7' Rodrigo Martins · Petrolul Ploiesti
FTFULL TIME FC Botosani 1–3 Petrolul Ploiesti
FTFC Botosani 1–3 Petrolul Ploiesti · FC Botosani win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Botosani are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Botosani 48%, draw 28%, Petrolul Ploiesti 25%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on FC Botosani v Petrolul PloiestiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

FC Botosani win48%

Draw28%

Petrolul Ploiesti win25%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueStadionul Municipal

RefereeMarcel Birsan

Line-ups

FC Botosani

4-3-3

Petrolul Ploiesti

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Botosani

Petrolul Ploiesti

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga I

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga I

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	12	−1	20
11	FC Botosani	12	+2	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Botosani

4-3-3

99 G. Anestis

2 B. Bayeye

4 A. Miron

94 M. Diarra

73 N. Ilaș

21 Lucas de Vega

67 E. Papa

26 H. Ongenda

10 Ș. Bodișteanu

41 A. Dumiter

11 Z. Mitrov

Coach · M. Croitoru

Substitutes

27 · Ionuț Cristian Gurău

77 · Gama Gabriel

8 · R. Idowu

22 · M. Kovtalyuk

7 · S. Mailat

9 · J. Marković

3 · C. Petro

90 · Mario Preda

5 · R. Creţ

44 · R. Sadiku

14 · George Sorodoc

37 · M. Bordeianu

Petrolul Ploiesti

4-2-3-1

38 L. Zima

66 T. Căpușă

4 P. Papp

71 B. Malula

2 A. Dumitrescu

19 Léo Teixeira

20 S. Hanca

8 L. Vega

7 Rodrigo Martins

9 D. Nlundulu

80 M. Ioniță

Coach · Ricardo Sousa

Substitutes

18 · C. Hüseynov

26 · Liviu Argeșanu

10 · A. Bran

12 · Ș. Georgescu

99 · O. Dele

30 · R. Leescu

29 · K. Ludewig

40 · R. Manolache

21 · David Ionut

1 · Ștefan Alexandru Rădulescu

24 · Adam Zaian

Our number · fc botosani winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 04:06 · locked at kick-off

48% The market46%

Us48%

~~Market~~46%

We make FC Botosani a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Botosani v Petrolul Ploiesti~~1.38 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in Liga I this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 20~~11 v 4

~~The market · FC Botosani win~~46% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Botosani win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Botosani win	48%	46%	+2
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Petrolul Ploiesti win	25%	28%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	40%	55%	−15
Both teams to score	44%	58%	−14
Over 1.5 goals	67%	77%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	20%	34%	−14
FC Botosani or draw	75%	72%	+3
FC Botosani clean sheet	41%	–	–
Petrolul Ploiesti clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 10.6 9.1 4.2 1 13.8 12.7 5.7 2 9.6 8.6 3.9 3 4.5 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Botosani down, Petrolul Ploiesti across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,694 Liga I matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga I matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.9% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Botosani at home: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Petrolul Ploiesti away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for FC Botosani, 0.91 for Petrolul Ploiesti. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 15:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCB 1–1 PET · FCB 0–1 PET · PET 0–0 FCB · PET 0–2 FCB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga I this season · since 28 Aug

FC BOTOSANI

DWDLWL0–0 · 5–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 0–2

PETROLUL PLOIESTI

WWDWLD3–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Bucuresti	12	+20	29
2	Rapid	12	+11	27
3	Universitatea Craiova	12	+18	26
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	12	−1	20
5	Universitatea Cluj	12	+2	19
6	FCSB	12	−2	18
7	Farul Constanta	12	0	17
8	Corvinul Hunedoara	12	+1	16
9	CFR 1907 Cluj	12	−1	16
10	Uta Arad	12	−2	15
11	FC Botosani	12	+2	14
12	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	12	−5	14
13	Arges Pitesti	12	−5	12
14	Oţelul	12	−5	11
15	FC Voluntari	12	−15	8
16	Csikszereda	12	−18	2