Farul Constanta v Petrolul Ploiesti prediction · Liga I

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Farul Constanta 3–1 Petrolul Ploiesti FARUL CONSTANTA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Farul Constanta win~~48%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.399

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.392

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Farul Constanta win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Farul Constanta 48% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–24
7′5′ and it is 1–0: Cristian Ganea on the scoresheet for Farul Constanta. 1–0 · 76–16–8
11′We said Farul Constanta at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–7
23′Farul Constanta ahead on 22′ through Matteo Ahlinvi. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
26′We said Farul Constanta at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
28′Farul Constanta ahead on 22′ through Matteo Ahlinvi. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
35′Alejandro Bran scores for Petrolul Ploiesti on 33′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 78–17–5
38′Alejandro Bran scores for Petrolul Ploiesti on 33′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 78–17–5
42′We said Farul Constanta at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 2–1 · 79–17–5
44′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 79–17–4
45′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 79–17–4
49′We said Farul Constanta at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–4
68′We said Farul Constanta at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
84′We said Farul Constanta at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Farul Constanta win: 48% at kick-off, 95% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Farul Constanta win: 48% at kick-off, 79% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Farul Constanta win: 48% at kick-off, 97% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Farul Constanta win: 48% at kick-off, 79% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Farul Constanta win: 48% at kick-off, 97% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Farul Constanta win: 48% at kick-off, 79% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Farul Constanta win: 48% at kick-off, 97% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Farul Constanta win: 48% at kick-off, 79% now
90′We said Farul Constanta at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′89′ and it is 3–1: Răzvan Marincean on the scoresheet for Farul Constanta. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Farul Constanta 3–1 Petrolul Ploiesti · Alejandro Bran
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Farul Constanta win: 48% at kick-off, 97% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Farul Constanta win: 48% at kick-off, 79% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Farul Constanta 3–1 Petrolul Ploiesti · Răzvan Marincean
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Andres Dumitrescu · Petrolul Ploiesti
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Farul Constanta win: 48% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME Farul Constanta 3–1 Petrolul Ploiesti
FTFarul Constanta 3–1 Petrolul Ploiesti · Farul Constanta win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Farul Constanta win48%

Draw27%

Petrolul Ploiesti win24%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 19:00

VenueStadionul Viitorul

RefereeHoratiu Fesnic

Line-ups

Farul Constanta

3-4-3

Petrolul Ploiesti

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Farul Constanta

Petrolul Ploiesti

21Days since last match20

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	10	+1	19
9	Farul Constanta	10	0	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Farul Constanta

3-4-3

12 R. Munteanu

24 S. Bouzamoucha

17 I. Larie

6 V. Dican

8 I. Vina

23 T. Njike

70 M. Ahlinvi

11 C. Ganea

10 E. Sylvestre

9 M. Hyseni

20 E. Radaslavescu

Coach · Ioan Sabau

Substitutes

1 · A. Buzbuchi

33 · Joao Ferreira

3 · V. Ticu

2 · D. Maftei

27 · H. Traore

80 · N. Popescu

29 · A. Goncear

30 · N. Grigoryan

71 · R. Tanasa

99 · R. Marincean

Petrolul Ploiesti

4-2-3-1

38 L. Zima

22 M. Tutu

4 P. Papp

71 B. Malula

2 A. Dumitrescu

8 Lucho Vega

20 S. Hanca

19 L. Santos Teixeira

10 A. J. Bran Flores

7 R. Martins

9 D. N'Lundulu

Coach · Ricardo Sousa

Substitutes

12 · S. Georgescu

66 · T. Capusa

29 · K. Ludewig

18 · C. Huseynov

24 · A. Zaian

80 · M. Ionita

21 · D. Paraschiv

99 · D. Israel

28 · M. Costache

30 · R. Leescu

Our number · farul constanta winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

48% The market49%

Us48%

~~Market~~49%

We make Farul Constanta a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Farul Constanta win	48%	49%	0
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Petrolul Ploiesti win	24%	25%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	41%	53%	−12
Both teams to score	45%	56%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	68%	76%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	21%	32%	−11
Farul Constanta or draw	76%	75%	+1
Farul Constanta clean sheet	40%	–	–
Petrolul Ploiesti clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.5%

0123450 10.1 8.6 4.1 1 13.5 12.6 5.7 2 9.7 8.7 4.0 3 4.6 4.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Farul Constanta down, Petrolul Ploiesti across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,682 Liga I matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga I matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.8% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.70 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Farul Constanta at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Petrolul Ploiesti away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Farul Constanta, 0.92 for Petrolul Ploiesti. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FAR 2–0 PET · PET 0–1 FAR · FAR 2–1 PET · PET 0–1 FAR

Form · last six in Liga I

FARUL CONSTANTA

DDDDWL1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 4–2 · 0–4

PETROLUL PLOIESTI

WLWWDW2–1 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Bucuresti	11	+18	26
2	Rapid	10	+8	21
3	Universitatea Craiova	10	+15	20
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	10	+1	19
5	Universitatea Cluj	10	+3	18
6	Corvinul Hunedoara	11	+3	16
7	FCSB	11	−3	15
8	FC Botosani	11	+4	14
9	Farul Constanta	10	0	14
10	CFR 1907 Cluj	10	−1	13
11	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	11	−5	13
12	Uta Arad	11	−3	12
13	Arges Pitesti	10	−4	11
14	Oţelul	11	−5	10
15	FC Voluntari	11	−14	8
16	Csikszereda	10	−17	1