Farul Constanta v Oţelul prediction · Liga I

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Farul ConstantaDrawOţelul

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Farul Constanta 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Farul Constanta are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Farul Constanta 47%, draw 26%, Oţelul 27%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Farul Constanta v OţelulBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Farul Constanta win47%

Draw26%

Oţelul win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueStadionul Viitorul

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Farul Constanta

Oţelul

7Days since last match9

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga I

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga I

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Farul Constanta	12	0	17
14	Oţelul	12	−5	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · farul constanta winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

47% The market48%

Us47%

~~Market~~48%

We make Farul Constanta a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Farul Constanta v Oţelul~~1.49 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Liga I this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 17 v 11~~8 v 14

~~The market · Farul Constanta win~~48% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Farul Constanta win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Farul Constanta win	47%	48%	−1
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Oţelul win	27%	25%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	47%	50%	−3
Both teams to score	51%	54%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	72%	73%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	29%	−3
Farul Constanta or draw	73%	75%	−2
Farul Constanta clean sheet	35%	–	–
Oţelul clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.1 8.2 4.4 1 11.4 12.3 6.5 2.3 2 8.6 9.0 4.8 3 4.3 4.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Farul Constanta down, Oţelul across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,699 Liga I matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga I matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.5% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Farul Constanta at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Oţelul away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Farul Constanta, 1.07 for Oţelul. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~OTE 3–2 FAR · OTE 2–2 FAR · FAR 3–2 OTE · OTE 0–0 FAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga I this season · since 28 Aug

FARUL CONSTANTA

DDWLWL0–0 · 0–0 · 4–2 · 0–4 · 3–1 · 0–2

OŢELUL

DLLLLD2–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Bucuresti	12	+20	29
2	Rapid	13	+8	27
3	Universitatea Craiova	12	+18	26
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	13	+1	23
5	Universitatea Cluj	13	+5	22
6	FCSB	13	+1	21
7	Uta Arad	13	−1	18
8	Farul Constanta	12	0	17
9	CFR 1907 Cluj	12	−1	16
10	Corvinul Hunedoara	13	−2	16
11	FC Botosani	13	0	14
12	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	12	−5	14
13	Arges Pitesti	13	−6	12
14	Oţelul	12	−5	11
15	FC Voluntari	13	−16	8
16	Csikszereda	13	−17	5