Corvinul Hunedoara v Arges Pitesti prediction · Liga I

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Corvinul HunedoaraDrawArges Pitesti

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Corvinul Hunedoara 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Corvinul Hunedoara are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Corvinul Hunedoara 41%, draw 31%, Arges Pitesti 28%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Corvinul Hunedoara v Arges PitestiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Corvinul Hunedoara win41%

Draw31%

Arges Pitesti win28%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueStadionul Francisc von Neuman

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Corvinul Hunedoara

Arges Pitesti

8Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga I

Last match: 24 Oct · Liga I

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Corvinul Hunedoara	13	−2	16
13	Arges Pitesti	13	−6	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · corvinul hunedoara winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market46%

Us41%

~~Market~~46%

We make Corvinul Hunedoara a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Corvinul Hunedoara v Arges Pitesti~~1.13 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Liga I this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 16 v 12~~10 v 13

~~The market · Corvinul Hunedoara win~~46% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Corvinul Hunedoara win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Corvinul Hunedoara win	41%	46%	−5
Draw	31%	30%	+1
Arges Pitesti win	28%	24%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	32%	42%	−10
Both teams to score	39%	48%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	59%	67%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	14%	22%	−8
Corvinul Hunedoara or draw	72%	76%	−4
Corvinul Hunedoara clean sheet	42%	–	–
Arges Pitesti clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.0%

0123450 14.2 11.7 5.2 1 15.0 13.1 5.7 2 8.6 7.3 3.2 3 3.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Corvinul Hunedoara down, Arges Pitesti across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,699 Liga I matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga I matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.5% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Corvinul Hunedoara at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Arges Pitesti away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Corvinul Hunedoara, 0.87 for Arges Pitesti. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ARG 0–1 COR · ARG 2–0 COR · COR 2–0 ARG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga I this season · since 6 Sept

CORVINUL HUNEDOARA

LLWWLL0–2 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 0–3

ARGES PITESTI

LDLLDL0–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Bucuresti	12	+20	29
2	Rapid	13	+8	27
3	Universitatea Craiova	12	+18	26
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	13	+1	23
5	Universitatea Cluj	13	+5	22
6	FCSB	13	+1	21
7	Uta Arad	13	−1	18
8	Farul Constanta	12	0	17
9	CFR 1907 Cluj	12	−1	16
10	Corvinul Hunedoara	13	−2	16
11	FC Botosani	13	0	14
12	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	12	−5	14
13	Arges Pitesti	13	−6	12
14	Oţelul	12	−5	11
15	FC Voluntari	13	−16	8
16	Csikszereda	13	−17	5