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Arges Pitesti v Uta Arad

Arges Pitesti
0–1Full time
Uta Arad

Liga I · SAT 24 OCT · Stadionul Orasenesc

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45
Arges Pitesti 0–1 Uta Arad ARGES PITESTI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Arges Pitesti win42%
The market said37%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.789
The market’s Brier score0.671

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Arges Pitesti win at 42%.
  2. 0′KICK-OFF Arges Pitesti v Uta Arad
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Arges Pitesti 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–30–28
  4. 16′We said Arges Pitesti at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–24–61
  5. 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Arges Pitesti 0–1 Uta Arad
  6. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Arges Pitesti win: 42% at kick-off, 15% now
  7. 16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Uta Arad win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Arges Pitesti win 39%)
  8. 17′Uta Arad score on 17′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 15–24–61
  9. 19′We said Arges Pitesti at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–61
  10. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Arges Pitesti win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
  11. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 12–24–64
  12. 41′We said Arges Pitesti at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
  13. 45′SECOND HALF Arges Pitesti 0–1 Uta Arad
  14. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Oluwatobiloba Alagbe · Arges Pitesti
  15. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Arges Pitesti · On: Taylor Luvambo · Off: Oluwatobiloba Alagbe Corrected
  16. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Arges Pitesti · On: Vadim Rață · Off: Patrick dulcea Corrected
  17. 48′HALF-TIME Arges Pitesti 0–1 Uta Arad
  18. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Arges Pitesti · On: Vadim Rață · Off: Claudiu Micovschi
  19. 55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Sota Mino · Uta Arad
  20. 61′We said Arges Pitesti at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
  21. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Uta Arad · On: Marinos Tzionis · Off: Jayson Papeau
  22. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Arges Pitesti · On: Gabriel Charpentier · Off: Ionut Laurentiu Radescu
  23. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Arges Pitesti win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
  24. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Vadim Rață · Arges Pitesti
  25. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Arges Pitesti · On: Robert Moldoveanu · Off: Ricardo Matos
  26. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Antoni Ivanov · Uta Arad
  27. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Leard·Sadriu · Arges Pitesti
  28. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Uta Arad · On: Ismet Sinani · Off: omar sawy el
  29. 90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Uta Arad
  30. 92′Uta Arad are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 0–3–97
  31. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Uta Arad · On: Samuel Gueulette · Off: Marius Coman
  32. 93′0–1 at the end. Our 42% on Arges Pitesti misses, and the record keeps it. 0–1 · 0–0–100
  33. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Florin Gheorghe·Borta · Arges Pitesti
  34. FTFULL TIME Arges Pitesti 0–1 Uta Arad
  35. FTArges Pitesti 0–1 Uta Arad · Arges Pitesti win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arges Pitesti are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arges Pitesti 42%, draw 30%, Uta Arad 28%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Arges Pitesti v Uta AradBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Arges Pitesti win42%
Draw30%
Uta Arad win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueStadionul Orasenesc

RefereeGabriel Mihuleac

Line-ups

Arges Pitesti

4-3-3

Uta Arad

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arges Pitesti

Uta Arad

5Days since last match6

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga I

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga I

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
10Uta Arad12−215
13Arges Pitesti12−512

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Arges Pitesti

4-3-3

77 I. Nikić

2 A. Tofan

23 F. Borţa

3 L. Sadriu

25 Tiago Gonçalves

11 Y. Pîrvu

69 O. Adefunyibomi

16 I. Rădescu

19 C. Micovschi

17 Ricardo Matos

20 P. Dulcea

Coach · Bogdan Andone

Substitutes

34 · C. Căbuz

15 · Guilherme Garutti

27 · Rober Sierra

92 · T. Luvambo

22 · V. Raţă

8 · M. Mamadou

80 · X. Emmers

96 · S. Balaure

9 · G. Charpentier

18 · Daniel Sandu

99 · R. Moldoveanu

31 · M. Serban

Uta Arad

4-2-3-1

1 Márcio Rosa

6 A. Ivanov

15 P. Ouaneh

22 R. Bădescu

3 S. Alomeroviс

5 S. Mino

8 A. Roman

42 O. El Sawy

77 J. Papeau

11 H. Abdallah

9 M. Coman

Coach · A. Mihalcea

Substitutes

14 · S. Gueulette

10 · M. Tzionis

33 · A. Gorcea

20 · Denis Taroi

7 · Ismet Sinani

17 · Roland Remus Patrik Sabau

18 · Piciorus Deean Kevin Ionut

Our number · arges pitesti winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
42% The market37%
Us42%
Market37%

We make Arges Pitesti a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Arges Pitesti v Uta Arad1.18 – 0.90
Form · last six in Liga I this season · since 29 AugW0 D2 L4 · W4 D0 L2
Table places · points 12 v 1513 v 10
The market · Arges Pitesti win37% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 15:13
Our probability · Arges Pitesti win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Arges Pitesti win42%37%+5
Draw30%30%0
Uta Arad win28%33%−5
Over 2.5 goals35%42%−7
Both teams to score41%49%−8
Over 1.5 goals62%67%−5
Over 3.5 goals16%22%−6
Arges Pitesti or draw72%67%+5
Arges Pitesti clean sheet41%––
Uta Arad clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.5%
0123450 12.9 11.0 5.1 1 14.5 13.2 5.9 2 8.7 7.7 3.5 3 3.5 3.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Arges Pitesti down, Uta Arad across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.29
Over 2.52 of 7
Both scored2 of 7
Last meetingsARG 0–1 UTA · UTA 3–3 ARG · ARG 2–2 UTA · UTA 0–1 ARG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga I this season · since 29 Aug

ARGES PITESTI

LLDLLD0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–2

UTA ARAD

WWLWLW3–1 · 5–1 · 2–4 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Dinamo Bucuresti12+2029
2Rapid12+1127
3Universitatea Craiova12+1826
4Petrolul Ploiesti13+123
5Universitatea Cluj13+522
6FCSB12−218
7Farul Constanta12017
8CFR 1907 Cluj12−116
9Corvinul Hunedoara13−216
10Uta Arad12−215
11FC Botosani13014
12Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe12−514
13Arges Pitesti12−512
14Oţelul12−511
15FC Voluntari12−158
16Csikszereda12−182

The competition's standings before kick-off.