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Model 1.2

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Progresul Spartac v Petrolul Ploiesti

Progresul Spartac
15:00Upcoming
Petrolul Ploiesti

Cupa României · TUE 27 OCT · Stadionul Progresul Spartac

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Progresul SpartacDrawPetrolul Ploiesti
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00
Before kick-off · Match result · Petrolul Ploiesti 79%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Petrolul Ploiesti are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Progresul Spartac 6%, draw 15%, Petrolul Ploiesti 79%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Progresul Spartac v Petrolul PloiestiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Progresul Spartac win6%
Draw15%
Petrolul Ploiesti win79%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueStadionul Progresul Spartac

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Progresul Spartac

Petrolul Ploiesti

11Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga III - Serie 5

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga I

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · petrolul ploiesti winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:26 · locked at kick-off
79% The market–
Us79%

We make Petrolul Ploiesti a 79% chance to win. The model expects 0.6–2.5, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Progresul Spartac v Petrolul Ploiesti0.58 – 2.49
Form · Cupa României this season · since 29 JulyW3 D1 L1 · W0 D1 L1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
75%80%85% 21 OCT 00:0125 OCT 00:56
Our probability · Petrolul Ploiesti win

Published at 77%, 79% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Progresul Spartac win6%––
Draw15%––
Petrolul Ploiesti win79%––
Over 2.5 goals59%––
Both teams to score40%––
Over 1.5 goals81%––
Over 3.5 goals37%––
Progresul Spartac or draw21%––
Progresul Spartac clean sheet8%––
Petrolul Ploiesti clean sheet56%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 14.5%
0123450 4.9 11.4 14.5 12.0 7.5 3.71 2.5 6.9 8.3 6.9 4.3 2.12 2.4 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Progresul Spartac down, Petrolul Ploiesti across0–5 goals a side shown (95.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cupa României this season · since 29 July

PROGRESUL SPARTAC

WWWDL2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–5

PETROLUL PLOIESTI

DL2–2 · 0–1