Lusail City v Al Shamal prediction · Stars League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:34

Lusail City 0–0 Al Shamal AL SHAMAL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Shamal win~~41%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.860

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.887

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Shamal win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Al Shamal 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 34–25–41
1′KICK-OFF Lusail City v Al Shamal
34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Omid Ebrahimi · Lusail City
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Musab Khoder · Al Shamal
45′SECOND HALF Lusail City 0–0 Al Shamal
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Franco Russo · Lusail City
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Al Shamal win 33%)
49′HALF-TIME Lusail City 0–0 Al Shamal
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Ali Nemati · Lusail City
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Al Shamal win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 27–42–31
58′We said Al Shamal at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 26–45–29
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Lusail City · On: Khaled Mansour · Off: Naif Al-Hadhrami
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Mowafak Awad · Al Shamal
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Al Shamal · On: Abdelkarim Hassan · Off: Mowafak Awad
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Al Shamal · On: Riyad Mahrez · Off: Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Al Shamal · On: Fahad Waad · Off: Ali Assadalla
68′We said Al Shamal at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 21–54–24
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Al Shamal win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
75′We said Al Shamal at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 17–64–19
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Lusail City · On: Ali Karami · Off: Mohamed Aiash
80′We said Al Shamal at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 13–73–14
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Lusail City · On: Tiago Geralnik · Off: Farhad Zavoshi
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Al Shamal win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
84′We said Al Shamal at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 8–83–9
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Lusail City · On: Mohamed Khaled · Off: Khaled Mohammed
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Rodrigo Machado · Lusail City
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Al Shamal · On: Abdullah Abdulsalam · Off: Nassim Benaissa
91′We said Al Shamal at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
96′0–0 at the end. Our 41% on Al Shamal misses, and the record keeps it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Lusail City 0–0 Al Shamal
FTLusail City 0–0 Al Shamal · Al Shamal win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Shamal are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lusail City 34%, draw 24%, Al Shamal 41%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Lusail City v Al ShamalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Lusail City win34%

Draw24%

Al Shamal win41%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:45

RoundMatchday 6

VenueLusail Stadium

Line-ups

Lusail City

4-1-4-1

Al Shamal

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lusail City

Al Shamal

7Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Stars League

Last match: 12 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Al Shamal	5	0	8
9	Lusail City	5	+2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lusail City

4-1-4-1

1 A. Shakouri

2 A. Pilali

4 F. Russo

27 M. Aiash

66 A. Nemati

6 O. Ebrahimi

7 F. Zavoshi

20 Naif Al Hadhrami

8 Khaled Mohammed

11 H. Firouzi

19 Rodrigo

Coach · Emanuel Mesquita

Substitutes

77 · Mohamed Al Ashwal

22 · T. Geralnik

70 · Mohamed Khaled

10 · S. Jjbril

30 · H. Kamal

3 · Ali Malolah

15 · Abdulhadi Kasr Al-Oun

96 · Amir Hassan

5 · A. Al Karatly

14 · K. Mansour

21 · A. Ndiaye

45 · Muhammad Taher Khan

Al Shamal

4-2-3-1

95 B. Seck

6 Musab Khoder

37 Ahmed Suhail

4 Pablo Marí

2 Moufak Awad

28 N. Benaïssa

70 Tiago Silva

10 Álex Collado

8 Ali Asad

22 W. Saïd

5 M. Ben Romdhane

Coach · David Prats

Substitutes

17 · Abdullah Abdulsalam

47 · Fahad Waad

3 · Abdelkarim Hassan

67 · Saoud Al Khater

78 · Ahmad Al Saeed

14 · Omar Ali

16 · F. Bais

26 · R. Mahrez

45 · Abdullah El Rady

24 · J. Murillo

27 · Ahmed Sayyar

23 · Michel Termanini

Our number · al shamal winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 17 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

41% The market50%

Us41%

~~Market~~50%

We make Al Shamal a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lusail City v Al Shamal~~1.44 – 1.60

~~Form · Stars League this season · since 20 Aug~~W1 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 8~~9 v 5

~~The market · Al Shamal win~~50% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Shamal win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lusail City win	34%	26%	+8
Draw	24%	24%	0
Al Shamal win	41%	50%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	58%	63%	−5
Both teams to score	60%	64%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	80%	83%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	36%	43%	−7
Lusail City or draw	59%	50%	+9
Lusail City clean sheet	21%	–	–
Al Shamal clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.3 7.5 6.1 3.3 1 6.8 11.2 8.5 4.6 2 5.1 7.8 6.1 3.2 3 2.5 3.8 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lusail City down, Al Shamal across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 694 Stars League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Stars League matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.6% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Lusail City at home: 4.00 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 1). Al Shamal away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Lusail City, 1.60 for Al Shamal. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Stars League this season · since 20 Aug

LUSAIL CITY

LDWDL0–1 · 3–3 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 0–1

AL SHAMAL

DWWDL2–2 · 3–1 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Rayyan SC	5	+8	13
2	Al Sadd	5	+11	12
3	Al-Arabi SC	6	+9	12
4	Al-Duhail SC	5	+6	9
5	Al Shamal	5	0	8
6	Al Wakrah	6	−1	8
7	Al Ahli Doha	6	−2	7
8	Al Shahaniya	6	−7	7
9	Lusail City	5	+2	5
10	Al-Gharafa	5	−5	4
11	Qatar SC	5	−8	2
12	Al-Sailiya	5	−13	0