Al Wakrah v Al-Arabi SC prediction · Stars League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Al Wakrah 3–2 Al-Arabi SC AL-ARABI SC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Arabi SC win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.618

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Arabi SC win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al-Arabi SC was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 36–24–39
1′KICK-OFF Al Wakrah v Al-Arabi SC
29′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Khatab Bauobida Ziadeh · Al-Arabi SC
35′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Marwan Sherif Hassan · Al-Arabi SC
38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Nabil Irfan · Al Wakrah
39′Al-Arabi SC ahead on 38′ through Michael Olunga. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–21–67
39′We published Al-Arabi SC at 40%. Our model now makes it 67%. 0–1 · 11–21–67
39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Al Wakrah 0–1 Al-Arabi SC · Michael Olunga
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Al-Arabi SC win: 40% at kick-off, 67% now
45′HALF-TIME Al Wakrah 0–2 Al-Arabi SC
46′SECOND HALF Al Wakrah 0–2 Al-Arabi SC
49′We published Al-Arabi SC at 40%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
49′Michael Olunga scores for Al-Arabi SC on 45′. 0–1 · 9–21–70
49′We published Al-Arabi SC at 40%. Our model now makes it 91%. 0–2 · 2–7–91
49′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 0–2 · 2–7–91
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+4' Al-Arabi SC win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
49′⚽ GOAL · 45' Al Wakrah 0–2 Al-Arabi SC · Michael Olunga (assist Pablo Sarabia)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+4' Al-Arabi SC win: 40% at kick-off, 91% now
51′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Al-Arabi SC · On: Issa Laye · Off: Marwan Sherif Hassan
63′We published Al-Arabi SC at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Al Wakrah · On: Mohamed Simo · Off: Ayoub Assal
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Al Wakrah · On: Nasser Al-Yazidi · Off: Nabil Irfan
69′We published Al-Arabi SC at 40%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–2 · 4–19–78
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Al Wakrah 1–2 Al-Arabi SC
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Al-Arabi SC win: 40% at kick-off, 78% now
70′69′: Nasser Al-Yazidi on the scoresheet for Al Wakrah, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 4–18–78
72′We published Al-Arabi SC at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
79′We published Al-Arabi SC at 40%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 1–13–85
81′15 shots for Al Wakrah, 10 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 1–12–87
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Al-Arabi SC · On: Lotfi Rabh Majed · Off: Michael Olunga
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Al-Arabi SC · On: Mohamed Khaled Gouda · Off: Isaac Lihadji
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Al-Arabi SC win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
84′We said Al-Arabi SC at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–81–9
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Al Wakrah 2–2 Al-Arabi SC
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Al-Arabi SC win: 40% at kick-off, 9% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Al-Arabi SC win 90%)
85′Al Wakrah level it on 83′ through Amine Zouhzouh. 2–2. 2–2 · 8–83–9
85′Al Wakrah have had 18 attempts to 10 and it is still 2–2. 2–2 · 8–83–9
86′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 8–84–8
89′We said Al-Arabi SC at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 3–2 · 94–6–0
89′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 94–6–0
89′Gelson Dala scores for Al Wakrah on 88′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 94–6–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Al Wakrah 3–2 Al-Arabi SC
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Al-Arabi SC win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Al Wakrah win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 87%)
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Al Wakrah · On: Almahdi Ali · Off: Gelson Dala
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Al-Arabi SC · On: Youssef snana · Off: Khatab Bauobida Ziadeh
97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Mohamed Simo · Al Wakrah
101′🟨 YELLOW · 90+9' Alexis Pérez · Al-Arabi SC
102′A red card for Al-Arabi SC on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–2 · 98–2–0
102′🟥 RED CARD · 90+11' Alexis Pérez · Al-Arabi SC
FTFULL TIME Al Wakrah 3–2 Al-Arabi SC
FTAl Wakrah 3–2 Al-Arabi SC · Al-Arabi SC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Al-Arabi SC just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Wakrah 36%, draw 24%, Al-Arabi SC 40%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Al Wakrah v Al-Arabi SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Al Wakrah win36%

Draw24%

Al-Arabi SC win40%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueSaoud bin Abdulrahman Stadium

Line-ups

Al Wakrah

4-2-3-1

Al-Arabi SC

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Wakrah

Al-Arabi SC

8Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · Stars League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Al-Arabi SC	6	+9	12
6	Al Wakrah	6	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Wakrah

4-2-3-1

99 Omair Al Sayed

16 Nabil Irfan

3 P. Calione

2 Lucas Mendes

12 Murad Naji Hussein

6 Omar Al Osad

93 A. Laïdouni

7 A. Assal

18 Luis Alberto

75 A. Zouhzouh

10 Gelson Dala

Coach · J. Sierra

Substitutes

28 · Yousef El Khatib

20 · Nasser Al Yazidi

15 · Almahdi Ali

26 · Abdollah Ali Saei

17 · R. Boussafi

34 · Moayed Hassan

5 · Ahmed Fadel

66 · Mohamed Simo

19 · Tamer Seyam

22 · Yousef Mohammed Ramadan

14 · A. Zaky

1 · Mohammed Al Bakri

Al-Arabi SC

4-4-2

31 Jasem Al Hail

22 K. Bauobida

5 Simo

25 A. Pérez

2 Marwan Hassan

6 O. Tannane

8 Ahmed Fathi

17 J. Veretout

80 I. Lihadji

7 Pablo Sarabia

14 M. Olunga

Coach · C. Contra

Substitutes

15 · Faisal Al Obaidli

9 · Mohamed Gouda

11 · Lotfi Madjer

20 · A. Mahajna

44 · Hassan Mohamad

98 · J. Monegal

30 · Salem Al Hajri

90 · Y. Snana

16 · Salem Reda

3 · Mohammed Al Naimi

33 · Q. El Haroun

19 · Gueye Laye

Our number · al-arabi sc winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 24 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Al-Arabi SC a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Wakrah v Al-Arabi SC~~1.59 – 1.66

~~Form · Stars League this season · since 20 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 8 v 12~~6 v 3

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Arabi SC win

Published at 38%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Wakrah win	36%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Al-Arabi SC win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Al Wakrah or draw	60%	–	–
Al Wakrah clean sheet	19%	–	–
Al-Arabi SC clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.5 6.0 5.4 3.0 1 5.7 10.6 8.4 4.7 2 4.9 8.0 6.6 3.7 3 2.6 4.3 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Wakrah down, Al-Arabi SC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 702 Stars League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Stars League matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.5% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Wakrah at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Arabi SC away: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Al Wakrah, 1.66 for Al-Arabi SC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 15:11. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALW 0–1 ALA · ALW 1–3 ALA · ALA 2–2 ALW · ALW 4–3 ALA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Stars League this season · since 20 Aug

AL WAKRAH

DLLDWW2–2 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 3–0

AL-ARABI SC

DDWDWW2–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 6–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Rayyan SC	7	+13	17
2	Al Sadd	7	+14	15
3	Al-Arabi SC	6	+9	12
4	Al-Duhail SC	6	+7	12
5	Al Shamal	7	−1	9
6	Al Wakrah	6	−1	8
7	Al Ahli Doha	7	−2	8
8	Al Shahaniya	7	−11	7
9	Lusail City	6	+2	6
10	Al-Gharafa	7	−5	6
11	Qatar SC	7	−7	6
12	Al-Sailiya	7	−18	1