Al Shamal v Qatar SC prediction · Stars League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 18:02

Al Shamal 2–3 Qatar SC AL SHAMAL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Shamal win~~43%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.711

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.904

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Shamal win at 43%.
1′KICK-OFF Al Shamal v Qatar SC
2′Little has changed for our model: Al Shamal 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–25–32
45′HALF-TIME Al Shamal 0–1 Qatar SC
46′SECOND HALF Al Shamal 0–1 Qatar SC
49′We said Al Shamal at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–23–66
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Al Shamal 0–1 Qatar SC
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Al Shamal win: 43% at kick-off, 11% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Qatar SC win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Al Shamal win 36%)
50′Joao Pedro scores for Qatar SC on 45′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–23–66
51′We said Al Shamal at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–8–90
51′50′: Pau Prim on the scoresheet for Qatar SC, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–90
51′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–2 · 2–8–90
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Al Shamal 0–2 Qatar SC
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Al Shamal win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Abdelkarim Hassan · Al Shamal
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane · Al Shamal
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Al Shamal · On: Alex Collado · Off: Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Al Shamal · On: Omar Ali · Off: Ali Assadalla
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Al Shamal · On: Fahad Waad · Off: Abdelkarim Hassan
65′We said Al Shamal at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 1–2 · 6–21–73
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Al Shamal 1–2 Qatar SC
66′Al Shamal pull one back on 65′ through Riyad Mahrez. 1–2. 1–2 · 5–21–74
67′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 5–21–74
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Qatar SC · On: Abdulrasheed Ibrahim · Off: Nasir Baksh
74′We said Al Shamal at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 2–2 · 20–63–17
74′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 20–63–17
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Al Shamal 2–2 Qatar SC
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Al Shamal win: 43% at kick-off, 20% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Qatar SC win 80%)
75′Tiago Silva scores for Al Shamal on 74′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 19–65–16
75′We said Al Shamal at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–65–16
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Al Shamal · On: Jeison Murillo · Off: Pablo Mari
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Qatar SC · On: Yaseen Lafrid · Off: Eisa Palangi
81′80′: Yohan Boli on the scoresheet for Qatar SC, making it 2–3. 2–3 · 1–12–87
81′5 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 1–12–87
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Al Shamal win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Al Shamal 2–3 Qatar SC · Yohan Boli
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Al Shamal win: 43% at kick-off, 1% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Qatar SC win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 76%)
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Al Shamal · On: Wesley Saïd · Off: Tiago Silva
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Qatar SC · On: Ataa Jaber · Off: Said Brahmi
92′Al Shamal have had 15 attempts to 10 and it is still 2–3. 2–3 · 0–3–97
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Pau Prim · Qatar SC
FTFULL TIME Al Shamal 2–3 Qatar SC
FTAl Shamal 2–3 Qatar SC · Al Shamal win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Shamal are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Shamal 43%, draw 25%, Qatar SC 32%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Al Shamal v Qatar SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Al Shamal win43%

Draw25%

Qatar SC win32%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueAl-Shamal SC Stadium

Line-ups

Al Shamal

4-2-3-1

Qatar SC

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Shamal

Qatar SC

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Stars League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Al Shamal	6	0	9
11	Qatar SC	6	−8	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Shamal

4-2-3-1

95 B. Seck

6 Musab Khoder

37 Ahmed Suhail

4 Pablo Marí

3 Abdelkarim Hassan

28 N. Benaïssa

70 Tiago Silva

26 R. Mahrez

5 M. Ben Romdhane

8 Ali Asad

11 B. Bounedjah

Coach · David Prats

Substitutes

67 · Saoud Al Khater

47 · Fahad Waad

78 · Ahmad Al Saeed

14 · Omar Ali

16 · F. Bais

10 · Álex Collado

45 · Abdullah El Rady

24 · J. Murillo

27 · Ahmed Sayyar

22 · W. Saïd

23 · Michel Termanini

Qatar SC

4-4-2

17 A. N. Mahmoud

2 Nasir Baksh

40 S. F. Diouf

4 A. Saoudi

20 Eisa Palangi

14 Said Brahmi

21 Abdullah Marafee

24 N. Mason

11 Y. Boli

6 Pau Prim

9 João Pedro

Coach · Tintín Márquez

Substitutes

15 · K. Al-Obaidly

12 · Ibrahim Masoud

28 · A. Addai

74 · S. Al Abbasi

66 · A. Q. Ayman Mohamed A.

96 · Ataa Jaber

42 · Yaseen Lafrid

18 · Mohamed Mushrinn

44 · A. Hanfy

33 · Adnan Saleh

23 · Sebastián Soria

19 · Abdulrasheed Umaru

Our number · al shamal winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 17 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

43% The market53%

Us43%

~~Market~~53%

We make Al Shamal a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Shamal v Qatar SC~~1.62 – 1.37

~~Form · Stars League this season · since 20 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 3~~5 v 11

~~The market · Al Shamal win~~53% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Shamal win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Shamal win	43%	53%	−10
Draw	25%	23%	+2
Qatar SC win	32%	24%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	57%	67%	−10
Both teams to score	60%	66%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	80%	84%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	35%	47%	−12
Al Shamal or draw	68%	76%	−8
Al Shamal clean sheet	26%	–	–
Qatar SC clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 5.6 6.4 4.7 2.2 1 7.6 11.6 7.6 3.5 2 6.6 8.9 6.1 2.8 3 3.6 4.9 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Shamal down, Qatar SC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 700 Stars League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Stars League matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.8% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Shamal at home: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Qatar SC away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Al Shamal, 1.37 for Qatar SC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 15:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALS 0–2 QAT · ALS 2–1 QAT · QAT 1–1 ALS · QAT 2–1 ALS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Stars League this season · since 20 Aug

AL SHAMAL

DWWDLD2–2 · 3–1 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 0–0

QATAR SC

DLLDLD2–2 · 2–6 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Sadd	7	+14	15
2	Al-Rayyan SC	6	+8	14
3	Al-Arabi SC	6	+9	12
4	Al-Duhail SC	6	+7	12
5	Al Shamal	6	0	9
6	Al Wakrah	6	−1	8
7	Al Ahli Doha	7	−2	8
8	Al Shahaniya	7	−11	7
9	Lusail City	6	+2	6
10	Al-Gharafa	7	−5	6
11	Qatar SC	6	−8	3
12	Al-Sailiya	6	−13	1