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Al Shahaniya v Lusail City

Al Shahaniya

1–0Full time

Lusail City

Stars League · SAT 10 OCT · Ahmed bin Ali Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Al Shahaniya 1–0 Lusail City LUSAIL CITY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lusail City win~~44%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.716

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.467

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lusail City win at 44%.
3′Much as we predicted: Lusail City was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 32–24–44
3′KICK-OFF Al Shahaniya v Lusail City
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Ibrahima Diallo · Al Shahaniya
45′HALF-TIME Al Shahaniya 0–0 Lusail City
45′SECOND HALF Al Shahaniya 0–0 Lusail City
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al Shahaniya · On: Moameen Mutasem · Off: Francesco Antonucci
46′HALF-TIME Al Shahaniya 0–0 Lusail City
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Al Shahaniya 1–0 Lusail City
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Al Shahaniya 1–0 Lusail City · Mohamed Abdelfatah Surag
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Al Shahaniya · On: Lucas Gabriel Ribeiro Firmo · Off: Mohamed Abdelfatah Surag
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Lusail City · On: Khaled Mansour · Off: Naif Al-Hadhrami
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Moameen Mutasem · Al Shahaniya
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Lusail City · On: Mohamed Khaled · Off: Amin Pilali
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Hamidreza Firouzi · Lusail City
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Lusail City · On: Tiago Geralnik · Off: Omid Ebrahimi
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Lusail City · On: Muhammad Taher Khan · Off: Khaled Mohammed
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Lusail City · On: Saud Jjbril · Off: Mohamed Aiash
FTFULL TIME Al Shahaniya 1–0 Lusail City
FTAl Shahaniya 1–0 Lusail City · Lusail City win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Al Shahaniya win32%

Draw24%

Lusail City win44%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:45

Venue · Ahmed bin Ali Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Al Shahaniya

4-2-3-1

99 Shehab Ellethy

19 Abdulla Al Sulaiti

22 S. van Beek

5 Muniesa

32 Khalid Muftah

27 I. Diallo

6 Álvaro Sanz

21 Mohamed Surag

10 F. Antonucci

11 Jawad El Jemili

9 A. Traoré

Coach · Younes Ali

Substitutes

17 · Abdulrahman Fahmi Moustafa

14 · Salah Alawi Al Yahri

23 · Mohamed Saeed

2 · A. Mohamed

16 · Mohamed Abdallah

77 · Yousef Hani Ballan

8 · A. Meherzi

88 · Moameen Mutasem

20 · Ali Qadry

81 · Lucas Gabriel Ribeiro Firmo

4 · Mohamed Sayyar

31 · Z. Šarlija

Lusail City

4-1-4-1

1 A. Shakouri

2 A. Pilali

4 F. Russo

27 M. Aiash

66 A. Nemati

6 O. Ebrahimi

7 F. Zavoshi

20 Naif Al Hadhrami

8 Khaled Mohammed

11 H. Firouzi

19 Rodrigo

Coach · Emanuel Mesquita

Substitutes

10 · S. Jjbril

77 · Mohamed Al Ashwal

15 · Abdulhadi Kasr Al-Oun

22 · T. Geralnik

70 · Mohamed Khaled

30 · H. Kamal

3 · Ali Malolah

5 · A. Al Karatly

14 · K. Mansour

45 · Muhammad Taher Khan

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Al Shahaniya

4-2-3-1

99 Shehab Ellethy

19 Abdulla Al Sulaiti

22 S. van Beek

5 Muniesa

32 Khalid Muftah

27 I. Diallo

6 Álvaro Sanz

21 Mohamed Surag

10 F. Antonucci

11 Jawad El Jemili

9 A. Traoré

Coach · Younes Ali

Substitutes

17 · Abdulrahman Fahmi Moustafa

14 · Salah Alawi Al Yahri

23 · Mohamed Saeed

2 · A. Mohamed

16 · Mohamed Abdallah

77 · Yousef Hani Ballan

8 · A. Meherzi

88 · Moameen Mutasem

20 · Ali Qadry

81 · Lucas Gabriel Ribeiro Firmo

4 · Mohamed Sayyar

31 · Z. Šarlija

Lusail City

4-1-4-1

1 A. Shakouri

2 A. Pilali

4 F. Russo

27 M. Aiash

66 A. Nemati

6 O. Ebrahimi

7 F. Zavoshi

20 Naif Al Hadhrami

8 Khaled Mohammed

11 H. Firouzi

19 Rodrigo

Coach · Emanuel Mesquita

Substitutes

10 · S. Jjbril

77 · Mohamed Al Ashwal

15 · Abdulhadi Kasr Al-Oun

22 · T. Geralnik

70 · Mohamed Khaled

30 · H. Kamal

3 · Ali Malolah

5 · A. Al Karatly

14 · K. Mansour

45 · Muhammad Taher Khan

Our number · lusail city winPublished 10 Oct 15:43

44% The market30%

Us44%

~~Market~~30%

We make Lusail City a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lusail city win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 29% to 30% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Shahaniya win	32%	44%	−12
Draw	24%	26%	−1
Lusail City win	44%	30%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	59%	59%	0
Both teams to score	61%	62%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	80%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	37%	38%	−1
Al Shahaniya or draw	56%	70%	−14
Al Shahaniya clean sheet	19%	–	–
Lusail City clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.2 7.4 6.5 3.7 1 6.1 11.0 8.8 5.0 2.2 2 4.5 7.4 6.1 3.5 3 2.2 3.5 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Shahaniya down, Lusail City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 690 Stars League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Stars League matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Al Shahaniya at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Lusail City away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Al Shahaniya, 1.69 for Lusail City. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 15:35. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Stars League

AL SHAHANIYA

DWLWLD1–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 2–4 · 1–1

LUSAIL CITY

LDWD0–1 · 3–3 · 4–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Rayyan SC	5	+8	13
2	Al Sadd	5	+11	12
3	Al-Duhail SC	5	+6	9
4	Al-Arabi SC	5	+3	9
5	Al Shamal	5	0	8
6	Lusail City	4	+3	5
7	Al Wakrah	5	−4	5
8	Al Shahaniya	4	−2	4
9	Al Ahli Doha	4	−4	4
10	Al-Gharafa	5	−5	4
11	Qatar SC	5	−8	2
12	Al-Sailiya	4	−8	0