Al Shahaniya v Al Sadd prediction · Stars League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 18:01

Al Shahaniya 0–4 Al Sadd AL SADD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Sadd win~~74%

~~The market said~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.101

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.115

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Sadd win at 74%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Al Sadd 74% before kick-off, 74% now. 0–0 · 12–15–74
1′KICK-OFF Al Shahaniya v Al Sadd
21′Akram Afif scores for Al Sadd on 21′. 0–0 · 13–18–69
21′We said Al Sadd at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 0–1 · 4–9–87
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Al Shahaniya 0–1 Al Sadd · Akram Afif
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Al Sadd win: 74% at kick-off, 87% now
28′We said Al Sadd at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 0–2 · 1–3–96
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Al Shahaniya 0–2 Al Sadd
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Al Sadd win: 74% at kick-off, 96% now
29′Al Sadd ahead on 28′ through Roberto Firmino. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–3–96
35′The goal count is tracking the 4.2 we expected. 0–2 · 1–3–96
45′HALF-TIME Al Shahaniya 0–2 Al Sadd
45′SECOND HALF Al Shahaniya 0–2 Al Sadd
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al Shahaniya · On: Yousef·Hani Ballan · Off: Abdullah Alsulaiti
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al Shahaniya · On: Khaled Muftah · Off: Bahaa Ellethy
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al Sadd · On: Pedro Miguel · Off: Tarek Salman
52′Akram Afif scores for Al Sadd on 51′. 0–2 · 0–3–97
53′We said Al Sadd at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
53′⚽ GOAL · 51' Al Shahaniya 0–3 Al Sadd · Akram Afif (assist Cláudio Luiz Rodrigues Parise Leonel)
54′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Al Shahaniya · On: Ali Qadry · Off: Sven van Beek
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Al Sadd · On: Mostafa Mashaal · Off: Cláudio Luiz Rodrigues Parise Leonel
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Al Sadd · On: Hassan Al-Haydos · Off: Mohamed Manai
71′70′: Mostafa Mashaal on the scoresheet for Al Sadd. 0–3 · 0–0–100
72′⚽ GOAL · 70' Al Shahaniya 0–4 Al Sadd · Mostafa Mashaal
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Al Sadd · On: Abdullah Badr Al-Yazidi · Off: Younes El Hannach
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Al Sadd · On: Mohamed Waad · Off: Giovani Henrique Amorim da Silva
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Al Shahaniya · On: Adel Al Sulimane · Off: Moameen Mutasem
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Al Shahaniya · On: Lucas Gabriel Ribeiro Firmo · Off: Mohamed Abdelfatah Surag
90′0–4 at the end. Our 74% on Al Sadd comes in. 0–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Al Shahaniya 0–4 Al Sadd
FTAl Shahaniya 0–4 Al Sadd · Al Sadd win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Sadd are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Shahaniya 11%, draw 14%, Al Sadd 74%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Al Shahaniya v Al SaddBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Al Shahaniya win11%

Draw14%

Al Sadd win74%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueAhmed bin Ali Stadium

Line-ups

Al Shahaniya

4-2-3-1

Al Sadd

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Shahaniya

Al Sadd

6Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · Stars League

Last match: 18 Oct · Stars League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Al Sadd	6	+10	12
8	Al Shahaniya	6	−7	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Shahaniya

4-2-3-1

99 Shehab Ellethy

19 Abdulla Al Sulaiti

22 S. van Beek

31 Z. Šarlija

3 Bahaa Ellithi

4 Mohamed Sayyar

6 Álvaro Sanz

21 Mohamed Surag

88 Moameen Mutasem

11 Jawad El Jemili

9 A. Traoré

Coach · Younes Ali

Substitutes

2 · A. Mohamed

17 · Abdulrahman Fahmi Moustafa

23 · Mohamed Saeed

18 · A. Al Sulimane

14 · Salah Alawi Al Yahri

7 · A. Mussed

81 · Lucas Gabriel Ribeiro Firmo

20 · Ali Qadry

8 · A. Meherzi

32 · Khalid Muftah

16 · Mohamed Abdallah

77 · Yousef Hani Ballan

Al Sadd

4-2-3-1

22 Meshaal Barsham

3 Y. El Hannach

5 Tarek Salman

16 Boualem Khoukhi

6 Paulo Otávio

4 M. Camara

33 Claudinho

11 Giovani

17 Mohamed Al Manai

30 Akram Afif

9 Roberto Firmino

Coach · R. Lucescu

Substitutes

13 · Abdullah Al Yazidi

8 · Guilherme

14 · Mostafa Meshaal

7 · Mohammed Waad

64 · Moaz Elwadia

2 · Pedro Miguel

31 · Yousef Abdulla Baliadeh

23 · Hashim Ali

1 · Saad Al Sheeb

10 · Hassan Al Haydos

12 · Y. Abdurisag

18 · Abdulrahman Al Ameen

Our number · al sadd winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 19 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

74% The market72%

Us74%

~~Market~~72%

We make Al Sadd a 74% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–3.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Shahaniya v Al Sadd~~1.15 – 3.01

~~Form · Stars League this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 12~~8 v 2

~~The market · Al Sadd win~~72% · ours 74%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Sadd win The market, margin stripped

Published at 72%, 74% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Shahaniya win	11%	12%	−1
Draw	14%	16%	−2
Al Sadd win	74%	72%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	78%	77%	+1
Both teams to score	65%	65%	0
Over 1.5 goals	92%	88%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	60%	59%	+1
Al Shahaniya or draw	26%	28%	−2
Al Shahaniya clean sheet	5%	–	–
Al Sadd clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.0%

0123450 4.5 7.1 7.0 5.3 3.31 5.7 8.0 7.9 6.0 3.62 3.1 4.6 4.6 3.4 2.13 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Shahaniya down, Al Sadd across0–5 goals a side shown (91.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 698 Stars League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Stars League matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.9% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.17 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Shahaniya at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Al Sadd away: 3.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Al Shahaniya, 3.01 for Al Sadd. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.17

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SAD 4–0 SHA · SAD 1–2 SHA · SHA 1–0 SAD · SHA 0–5 SAD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Stars League this season · since 21 Aug

AL SHAHANIYA

LWLDWL1–2 · 3–2 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–6

AL SADD

WWWWLL3–1 · 6–2 · 4–1 · 6–3 · 2–3 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Rayyan SC	6	+8	14
2	Al Sadd	6	+10	12
3	Al-Arabi SC	6	+9	12
4	Al-Duhail SC	6	+7	12
5	Al Shamal	6	0	9
6	Al Wakrah	6	−1	8
7	Al Ahli Doha	6	−2	7
8	Al Shahaniya	6	−7	7
9	Lusail City	6	+2	6
10	Al-Gharafa	6	−5	5
11	Qatar SC	6	−8	3
12	Al-Sailiya	6	−13	1