Al Shahaniya v Al-Arabi SC prediction · Stars League

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 20:20

Al Shahaniya 0–6 Al-Arabi SC AL-ARABI SC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Arabi SC win~~46%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.437

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.356

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Arabi SC win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al-Arabi SC was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 30–23–46
1′KICK-OFF Al Shahaniya v Al-Arabi SC
15′SUBSTITUTION · 14' Al Shahaniya · On: Mohamed Sayyar · Off: Ibrahima Diallo
20′SUBSTITUTION · 19' Al Shahaniya · On: Zvonimir Šarlija · Off: Marc Muniesa
23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Khatab Bauobida Ziadeh · Al-Arabi SC
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Khaled Muftah · Al Shahaniya
40′We published Al-Arabi SC at 46%. Our model now makes it 72%. 0–1 · 9–19–72
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Al Shahaniya 0–1 Al-Arabi SC
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Al-Arabi SC win: 46% at kick-off, 72% now
41′Al-Arabi SC ahead on 40′ through Jordan Veretout. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–19–72
45′SECOND HALF Al Shahaniya 0–2 Al-Arabi SC
48′We published Al-Arabi SC at 46%. Our model now makes it 93%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
48′Pablo Sarabia scores for Al-Arabi SC on 45′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–93
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Al Shahaniya 0–2 Al-Arabi SC
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Al-Arabi SC win: 46% at kick-off, 93% now
49′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 0–2 · 1–6–93
49′We published Al-Arabi SC at 46%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–3 · 0–1–99
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Al Shahaniya 0–3 Al-Arabi SC
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Al-Arabi SC win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
50′HALF-TIME Al Shahaniya 0–2 Al-Arabi SC
51′50′: Oussama Tannane on the scoresheet for Al-Arabi SC, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
60′We published Al-Arabi SC at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
60′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Al Shahaniya 0–4 Al-Arabi SC
61′GOAL DISALLOWED · 61' Al-Arabi SC
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Al Shahaniya · On: Amenallah Meherzi · Off: Mohamed Abdelfatah Surag
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Al Shahaniya · On: Moameen Mutasem · Off: Lucas Gabriel Ribeiro Firmo
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Al Shahaniya · On: Bahaa Ellethy · Off: Khaled Muftah
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Al Shahaniya 0–4 Al-Arabi SC
65′Pablo Sarabia scores for Al-Arabi SC on 64′. 0–3 · 0–0–100
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Al-Arabi SC · On: Lotfi Rabh Majed · Off: Isaac Lihadji
72′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 0–5 · 0–0–100
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Al-Arabi SC · On: Mohamed Khaled Gouda · Off: Michael Olunga
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Al Shahaniya 0–5 Al-Arabi SC
73′Pablo Sarabia scores for Al-Arabi SC on 72′ — 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Al-Arabi SC · On: Ameed Mahajneh · Off: Jordan Veretout
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Al-Arabi SC · On: Youssef snana · Off: Oussama Tannane
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Al-Arabi SC · On: Salem Al Hajri · Off: Khatab Bauobida Ziadeh
88′6 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 0–6 · 0–0–100
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Al Shahaniya 0–6 Al-Arabi SC
90′89′: Youssef snana on the scoresheet for Al-Arabi SC, making it 0–6. 0–6 · 0–0–100
93′Full time, 0–6. We called Al-Arabi SC at 46% — that one lands. 0–6 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Al Shahaniya 0–6 Al-Arabi SC
FTAl Shahaniya 0–6 Al-Arabi SC · Al-Arabi SC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Arabi SC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Shahaniya 30%, draw 24%, Al-Arabi SC 46%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Al Shahaniya v Al-Arabi SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Al Shahaniya win30%

Draw24%

Al-Arabi SC win46%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:45

RoundMatchday 6

VenueAhmed bin Ali Stadium

Line-ups

Al Shahaniya

4-2-3-1

Al-Arabi SC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Shahaniya

Al-Arabi SC

6Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Stars League

Last match: 9 Oct · Stars League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Al-Arabi SC	5	+3	9
7	Al Shahaniya	5	−1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Shahaniya

4-2-3-1

99 Shehab Ellethy

19 Abdulla Al Sulaiti

22 S. van Beek

5 Muniesa

32 Khalid Muftah

6 Álvaro Sanz

27 I. Diallo

21 Mohamed Surag

11 Jawad El Jemili

9 A. Traoré

81 Lucas Gabriel Ribeiro Firmo

Coach · Younes Ali

Substitutes

31 · Z. Šarlija

20 · Ali Qadry

88 · Moameen Mutasem

8 · A. Meherzi

16 · Mohamed Abdallah

77 · Yousef Hani Ballan

3 · Bahaa Ellithi

17 · Abdulrahman Fahmi Moustafa

4 · Mohamed Sayyar

18 · A. Al Sulimane

23 · Mohamed Saeed

2 · A. Mohamed

Al-Arabi SC

4-2-3-1

31 Jasem Al Hail

22 K. Bauobida

5 Simo

25 A. Pérez

2 Marwan Hassan

8 Ahmed Fathi

17 J. Veretout

6 O. Tannane

7 Pablo Sarabia

80 I. Lihadji

14 M. Olunga

Coach · C. Contra

Substitutes

9 · Mohamed Gouda

33 · Q. El Haroun

19 · Gueye Laye

11 · Lotfi Madjer

20 · A. Mahajna

44 · Hassan Mohamad

98 · J. Monegal

99 · João Pedro

30 · Salem Al Hajri

90 · Y. Snana

16 · Salem Reda

82 · Mustafa Modathir Ibrahim

Our number · al-arabi sc winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

46% The market51%

Us46%

~~Market~~51%

We make Al-Arabi SC a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Shahaniya v Al-Arabi SC~~1.40 – 1.77

~~Form · Stars League this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D1 L2 · W2 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 9~~7 v 4

~~The market · Al-Arabi SC win~~51% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Arabi SC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Shahaniya win	30%	25%	+5
Draw	24%	24%	0
Al-Arabi SC win	46%	51%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	61%	64%	−3
Both teams to score	62%	64%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	83%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	39%	44%	−5
Al Shahaniya or draw	54%	49%	+5
Al Shahaniya clean sheet	17%	–	–
Al-Arabi SC clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.6 7.2 6.6 3.9 1 5.7 10.6 9.1 5.4 2.4 2 4.1 7.2 6.3 3.7 3 3.4 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Shahaniya down, Al-Arabi SC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 692 Stars League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Stars League matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Shahaniya at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Arabi SC away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Al Shahaniya, 1.77 for Al-Arabi SC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ALS 0–2 ALA · ALS 0–2 ALA · ALA 2–0 ALS · ALA 3–1 ALS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Stars League this season · since 21 Aug

AL SHAHANIYA

LWLDW1–2 · 3–2 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 1–0

AL-ARABI SC

DDWDW2–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Rayyan SC	5	+8	13
2	Al Sadd	5	+11	12
3	Al-Duhail SC	5	+6	9
4	Al-Arabi SC	5	+3	9
5	Al Shamal	5	0	8
6	Al Ahli Doha	5	+1	7
7	Al Shahaniya	5	−1	7
8	Lusail City	5	+2	5
9	Al Wakrah	5	−4	5
10	Al-Gharafa	5	−5	4
11	Qatar SC	5	−8	2
12	Al-Sailiya	5	−13	0