Al-Sailiya v Qatar SC prediction · Stars League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Al-Sailiya 2–2 Qatar SC QATAR SC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Qatar SC win~~45%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.860

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.899

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Qatar SC win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Qatar SC 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 31–25–44
1′KICK-OFF Al-Sailiya v Qatar SC
26′SUBSTITUTION · 25' Qatar SC · On: Ibrahim Abdelhalim · Off: Aron Gunnarsson
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Abdullah Maarafiya · Qatar SC
35′34′: Niall Mason on the scoresheet for Qatar SC, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–19–72
35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Al-Sailiya 0–1 Qatar SC · Niall Mason
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Qatar SC win: 45% at kick-off, 72% now
36′We said Qatar SC at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 0–1 · 9–19–72
37′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 9–19–72
45′HALF-TIME Al-Sailiya 0–1 Qatar SC
45′SECOND HALF Al-Sailiya 0–1 Qatar SC
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Said Brahmi · Qatar SC
52′We said Qatar SC at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
52′We said Qatar SC at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Qatar SC win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Abdulrahman Mohamed Mohamed · Al-Sailiya
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Al-Sailiya 0–2 Qatar SC
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Qatar SC win: 45% at kick-off, 94% now
53′Qatar SC ahead on 51′ through Joao Pedro. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
56′We said Qatar SC at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Qatar SC win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Al-Sailiya · On: Mohamed Taabouni · Off: Ahmed Doozandeh
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Qatar SC · On: Mohamed Mushrinn · Off: Ali Saoudi
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Al-Sailiya · On: Mus'ab Al-Batat · Off: Ali Olwan
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Pau Prim · Qatar SC
83′We said Qatar SC at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
83′Younès Belhanda scores for Al-Sailiya on 82′. 0–2 · 0–0–100
84′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–7–92
84′⚽ GOAL · 82' Al-Sailiya 1–2 Qatar SC · Younès Belhanda
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Qatar SC · On: Yaseen Lafrid · Off: Said Brahmi
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Qatar SC · On: Sebastian Soria · Off: Yohan Boli
96′We said Qatar SC at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–2 · 1–97–2
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Al-Sailiya 2–2 Qatar SC
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+6' Qatar SC win: 45% at kick-off, 2% now
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Qatar SC win 2%)
97′90′: Joselu on the scoresheet for Al-Sailiya, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 1–97–2
97′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 1–97–2
FTFULL TIME Al-Sailiya 2–2 Qatar SC
FTAl-Sailiya 2–2 Qatar SC · Qatar SC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Qatar SC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Sailiya 31%, draw 25%, Qatar SC 45%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Al-Sailiya v Qatar SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Al-Sailiya win31%

Draw25%

Qatar SC win45%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueHamad bin Khalifa Stadium

Line-ups

Al-Sailiya

4-2-3-1

Qatar SC

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Sailiya

Qatar SC

7Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · Stars League

Last match: 13 Oct · AGCFF Gulf Champions League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Qatar SC	5	−8	2
12	Al-Sailiya	5	−13	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al-Sailiya

4-2-3-1

1 B. Burke

99 Salem Al-Sufiani

4 Majed Mohammed

15 M. Nani

2 Abdulla Mahmoud Mahmoud

20 Y. Belhanda

8 Ahmed Doozandeh

9 Ali Olwan

5 Abdulrahman Mohamed

13 Joselu

21 A. El Ghazi

Coach · Mirghany Al-Zein

Substitutes

6 · Moataz Bostami

22 · Andri Syahputra

77 · Mouz Gadelseed Abdalla

19 · Abdulaziz Al Bakri

71 · Mus'ab Al Battat

31 · M. Al Bustami

25 · R. Danzabe

7 · Mohab Mohammed Eissa

18 · Awab Hussain

50 · Youssef Sayed

10 · M. Taabouni

55 · K. van der Kaap

Qatar SC

4-4-2

17 A. N. Mahmoud

21 Abdullah Marafee

40 S. F. Diouf

5 A. Gunnarsson

4 A. Saoudi

14 Said Brahmi

6 Pau Prim

24 N. Mason

20 Eisa Palangi

11 Y. Boli

9 João Pedro

Coach · Tintín Márquez

Substitutes

15 · K. Al-Obaidly

12 · Ibrahim Masoud

28 · A. Addai

74 · S. Al Abbasi

66 · A. Q. Ayman Mohamed A.

2 · Nasir Baksh

96 · Ataa Jaber

42 · Yaseen Lafrid

18 · Mohamed Mushrinn

44 · A. Hanfy

33 · Adnan Saleh

23 · Sebastián Soria

Our number · qatar sc winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 17 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

45% The market53%

Us45%

~~Market~~53%

We make Qatar SC a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Sailiya v Qatar SC~~1.32 – 1.64

~~Form · Stars League this season · since 20 Aug~~W0 D0 L5 · W0 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 0 v 2~~12 v 11

~~The market · Qatar SC win~~53% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Qatar SC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Sailiya win	31%	23%	+8
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Qatar SC win	45%	53%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	57%	60%	−3
Both teams to score	59%	61%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	81%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	40%	−6
Al-Sailiya or draw	55%	47%	+8
Al-Sailiya clean sheet	20%	–	–
Qatar SC clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.6 8.3 7.0 3.8 1 6.6 11.4 9.0 5.0 2.1 2 4.5 7.3 6.0 3.3 3 2.0 3.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Sailiya down, Qatar SC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 694 Stars League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Stars League matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.6% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.11 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al-Sailiya at home: 1.17 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). Qatar SC away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Al-Sailiya, 1.64 for Qatar SC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.11

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ALS 2–1 QAT · QAT 2–0 ALS · QAT 1–1 ALS · ALS 0–2 QAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Stars League this season · since 20 Aug

AL-SAILIYA

LLLLL0–2 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 3–6 · 0–5

QATAR SC

DLLDL2–2 · 2–6 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Rayyan SC	5	+8	13
2	Al Sadd	5	+11	12
3	Al-Arabi SC	6	+9	12
4	Al-Duhail SC	5	+6	9
5	Al Shamal	5	0	8
6	Al Wakrah	6	−1	8
7	Al Ahli Doha	6	−2	7
8	Al Shahaniya	6	−7	7
9	Lusail City	5	+2	5
10	Al-Gharafa	5	−5	4
11	Qatar SC	5	−8	2
12	Al-Sailiya	5	−13	0