Al-Sailiya v Al-Rayyan SC prediction · Stars League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

Al-Sailiya 1–6 Al-Rayyan SC AL-RAYYAN SC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Rayyan SC win~~62%

~~The market said~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.219

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.117

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Rayyan SC win at 62%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al-Rayyan SC was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 18–21–62
1′KICK-OFF Al-Sailiya v Al-Rayyan SC
13′Al-Rayyan SC find the net on 12′. 0–0 · 18–23–59
20′Al-Rayyan SC find the net on 20′. 0–0 · 18–24–57
21′We published Al-Rayyan SC at 62%. Our model now makes it 82%. 0–1 · 6–12–82
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Al-Sailiya 0–1 Al-Rayyan SC · Gabriel Pereira
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Al-Rayyan SC win: 62% at kick-off, 82% now
23′Ahmed Alaaeldin scores for Al-Rayyan SC on 22′. 0–1 · 6–13–82
24′We published Al-Rayyan SC at 62%. Our model now makes it 94%. 0–2 · 1–4–94
24′⚽ GOAL · 22' Al-Sailiya 0–2 Al-Rayyan SC · Ahmed Alaaeldin
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Al-Rayyan SC win: 62% at kick-off, 94% now
27′We published Al-Rayyan SC at 62%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
32′🟥 RED CARD · 30' Majed Mohammed · Al-Sailiya
33′A red card for Al-Sailiya on 30′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–2 · 1–4–95
42′SUBSTITUTION · 41' Al-Sailiya · On: Kellian van der Kaap · Off: Ali Olwan
44′43′: Ahmed Alaaeldin on the scoresheet for Al-Rayyan SC. 0–2 · 1–4–96
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Al-Sailiya 0–3 Al-Rayyan SC · Ahmed Alaaeldin
45′HALF-TIME Al-Sailiya 0–3 Al-Rayyan SC
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al-Sailiya · On: Abdelaziz Mitwali · Off: Salem Sultan Al-Sufiani
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al-Sailiya · On: Mohamed Taabouni · Off: Ahmed Doozandeh
46′SECOND HALF Al-Sailiya 0–3 Al-Rayyan SC
52′An own goal by Al-Sailiya's Kellian van der Kaap on 51′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
52′We published Al-Rayyan SC at 62%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Al-Sailiya 0–4 Al-Rayyan SC · Kellian van der Kaap (own goal)
53′4 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
59′58′: Anwar El Ghazi on the scoresheet for Al-Sailiya. 0–4 · 0–0–100
59′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al-Rayyan SC · On: Abdulaziz Hatim · Off: Julien De Sart
60′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
60′⚽ GOAL · 58' Al-Sailiya 1–4 Al-Rayyan SC · Anwar El Ghazi
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Al-Rayyan SC · On: Abdullah Yousef · Off: David García
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Al-Rayyan SC · On: Khalid Ali Sabah · Off: Gabriel Pereira
68′Al-Rayyan SC ahead on 67′ through Khalid Ali Sabah. 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
68′6 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–5 · 0–0–100
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Al-Sailiya 1–5 Al-Rayyan SC · Khalid Ali Sabah
71′70′: Yousef Ayman on the scoresheet for Al-Rayyan SC. 1–5 · 0–0–100
71′That is 7, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 1–6 · 0–0–100
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Al-Sailiya 1–6 Al-Rayyan SC · Yousef Ayman
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Diogo Amaro · Al-Rayyan SC
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Al-Sailiya · On: Mohammed Osama Osman · Off: Younès Belhanda
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Al-Sailiya · On: Mus'ab Al-Batat · Off: Joselu
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Al-Rayyan SC · On: Hazem Ahmed · Off: Diogo Amaro
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Al-Rayyan SC · On: Ibrahim Mohammed Al-Hassan · Off: Ahmed Alaaeldin
FTFULL TIME Al-Sailiya 1–6 Al-Rayyan SC
FTAl-Sailiya 1–6 Al-Rayyan SC · Al-Rayyan SC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Rayyan SC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Sailiya 18%, draw 21%, Al-Rayyan SC 62%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Al-Sailiya v Al-Rayyan SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Al-Sailiya win18%

Draw21%

Al-Rayyan SC win62%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:45

RoundMatchday 7

VenueHamad bin Khalifa Stadium

Line-ups

Al-Sailiya

4-2-3-1

Al-Rayyan SC

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Sailiya

Al-Rayyan SC

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Stars League

Last match: 18 Oct · Stars League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Al-Rayyan SC	6	+8	14
12	Al-Sailiya	6	−13	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al-Sailiya

4-2-3-1

50 Youssef Sayed

2 Abdulla Mahmoud Mahmoud

99 Salem Al-Sufiani

15 M. Nani

4 Majed Mohammed

8 Ahmed Doozandeh

5 Abdulrahman Mohamed

9 Ali Olwan

20 Y. Belhanda

21 A. El Ghazi

13 Joselu

Coach · Mirghany Al-Zein

Substitutes

67 · M. Osman

10 · M. Taabouni

22 · Andri Syahputra

55 · K. van der Kaap

6 · Moataz Bostami

71 · Mus'ab Al Battat

19 · Abdulaziz Al Bakri

1 · B. Burke

25 · R. Danzabe

7 · Mohab Mohammed Eissa

18 · Awab Hussain

14 · A. Mitwali

Al-Rayyan SC

4-1-4-1

57 Mahmud Abunada

31 D. Amaro

17 Youssef Ayman

5 David García

33 D. Diakite

4 J. De Sart

11 Gabriel Pereira

40 Gregore

22 Ahmed Al Ganehi

10 Róger Guedes

30 Ahmed Alaa Eldin

Coach · Vicente Moreno

Substitutes

6 · Abdulaziz Hatem

13 · André Amaro

35 · Sami Mazen

23 · S. Beldi

21 · Ibrahim Mohammed Al-Hassan

16 · Jassem Al Sharshani

3 · Hazem Shehata

15 · Mostafa Essam

2 · Abdalla Yousif

20 · Khalid Ali Sabah

Our number · al-rayyan sc winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 16 Oct 09:37 · locked at kick-off

62% The market72%

Us62%

~~Market~~72%

We make Al-Rayyan SC a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Sailiya v Al-Rayyan SC~~1.08 – 2.19

~~Form · Stars League this season · since 20 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 14~~12 v 2

~~The market · Al-Rayyan SC win~~72% · ours 62%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Rayyan SC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 17%, 62% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Sailiya win	18%	12%	+6
Draw	21%	16%	+5
Al-Rayyan SC win	62%	72%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	63%	69%	−6
Both teams to score	59%	56%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	84%	86%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	41%	49%	−8
Al-Sailiya or draw	38%	28%	+10
Al-Sailiya clean sheet	11%	–	–
Al-Rayyan SC clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.7%

0123450 4.3 8.0 9.1 6.6 3.6 1 3.8 9.4 9.7 7.1 3.9 2 2.3 4.9 5.2 3.8 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Sailiya down, Al-Rayyan SC across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 700 Stars League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Stars League matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.8% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.70 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al-Sailiya at home: 1.50 scored, 3.17 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Rayyan SC away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Al-Sailiya, 2.19 for Al-Rayyan SC. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.70

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALS 1–1 ALR · ALS 1–3 ALR · ALS 1–4 ALR · ALR 3–1 ALS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Stars League this season · since 20 Aug

AL-SAILIYA

LLLLLD0–2 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 3–6 · 0–5 · 2–2

AL-RAYYAN SC

WWDWWD1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Sadd	7	+14	15
2	Al-Rayyan SC	6	+8	14
3	Al-Arabi SC	6	+9	12
4	Al-Duhail SC	6	+7	12
5	Al Shamal	6	0	9
6	Al Wakrah	6	−1	8
7	Al Ahli Doha	7	−2	8
8	Al Shahaniya	7	−11	7
9	Lusail City	6	+2	6
10	Al-Gharafa	7	−5	6
11	Qatar SC	6	−8	3
12	Al-Sailiya	6	−13	1