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Al Sadd v Al-Arabi SC

Al Sadd

2–3Full time

Al-Arabi SC

Stars League · FRI 9 OCT · Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30

Al Sadd 2–3 Al-Arabi SC AL SADD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Sadd win~~66%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.167

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.030

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Sadd win at 66%.
29′13′ and it is 1–2: Pablo Sarabia on the scoresheet for Al-Arabi SC. 1–2 · 35–25–40
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Al Sadd win: 66% at kick-off, 35% now
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Al-Arabi SC win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Al Sadd win 35%)
40′We said Al Sadd at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–2 · 29–27–44
40′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Agustin soria · Al Sadd
41′⚽ GOAL · 42' Al Sadd 1–2 Al-Arabi SC · Agustin soria
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Al Sadd 2–2 Al-Arabi SC · Agustin soria
45′Al Sadd ahead on 42′ through Agustin soria. 2–2. 2–2 · 54–28–18
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Al Sadd win: 66% at kick-off, 54% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Al Sadd win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Al-Arabi SC win 18%)
45′SECOND HALF Al Sadd 2–2 Al-Arabi SC
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Al Sadd 2–3 Al-Arabi SC · Agustin soria
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Al Sadd 2–3 Al-Arabi SC · Oussama Tannane
57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Al Sadd · On: Mohamed Camara · Off: Marcelo Brozović
57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Al Sadd · On: Giovani Henrique Amorim da Silva · Off: Agustin soria Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Al-Arabi SC · On: Wassim Keddari · Off: Lotfi Rabh Majed Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Al-Arabi SC · On: Michael Olunga · Off: Marwan Sherif Hassan Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Al Sadd · On: Hassan Al-Haydos · Off: Yusuf Abdurisag Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Al Sadd · On: Younes El Hannach · Off: Pedro Miguel
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Al-Arabi SC · On: Mohamed Khaled Gouda · Off: Isaac Lihadji Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Al-Arabi SC · On: Ameed Mahajneh · Off: Oussama Tannane Corrected
FTFULL TIME Al Sadd 2–3 Al-Arabi SC
FTAl Sadd 2–3 Al-Arabi SC · Al Sadd win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Al Sadd win66%

Draw17%

Al-Arabi SC win17%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

Venue · Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Al Sadd

4-2-3-1

1 Saad Al Sheeb

2 Pedro Miguel

5 Tarek Salman

26 Alessio Romagnoli

6 Paulo Otávio

77 Marcelo Brozović

8 Guilherme

80 Agustín Soria

33 Claudinho

30 Akram Afif

9 Roberto Firmino

Coach · R. Lucescu

Substitutes

12 · Yusuf Abdurisag

4 · Mohamed Camara

11 · Giovani

3 · Younes El Hannach

10 · Hassan Al Haydos

31 · Yousef Abdulla Baliadeh

32 · Karim Haider Dib

16 · Boualem Khoukhi

7 · Mohammed Waad

14 · Mostafa Mashaal

17 · Mohamed Naceur Almanai

23 · Hashim Ali

Al-Arabi SC

4-4-2

31 Jasem Adel Al Hail

22 Khatab Bauobida Ziadeh

19 Issa Laye

25 Alexis Pérez

2 Marwan Hassan

10 Rodri Sánchez

8 Ahmed Fathi

17 Jordan Veretout

80 Isaac Lihadji

7 Pablo Sarabia

6 Oussama Tannane

Coach · C. Contra

Substitutes

11 · Lotfi Madjer

5 · Wassim Keddari

14 · Michael Olunga

20 · Amid Mahajna

9 · Mohamed Gouda

33 · Qosai Al Haroun

98 · Jorge Monegal

24 · Yonis Yusuf Abdurisag

16 · Salem Reda Salem

44 · Hassan Mohamad

30 · Salem Al-Hajri

90 · Youssef Snana

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Al Sadd

4-2-3-1

1 Saad Al Sheeb

2 Pedro Miguel

5 Tarek Salman

26 Alessio Romagnoli

6 Paulo Otávio

77 Marcelo Brozović

8 Guilherme

80 Agustín Soria

33 Claudinho

30 Akram Afif

9 Roberto Firmino

Coach · R. Lucescu

Substitutes

12 · Yusuf Abdurisag

4 · Mohamed Camara

11 · Giovani

3 · Younes El Hannach

10 · Hassan Al Haydos

31 · Yousef Abdulla Baliadeh

32 · Karim Haider Dib

16 · Boualem Khoukhi

7 · Mohammed Waad

14 · Mostafa Mashaal

17 · Mohamed Naceur Almanai

23 · Hashim Ali

Al-Arabi SC

4-4-2

31 Jasem Adel Al Hail

22 Khatab Bauobida Ziadeh

19 Issa Laye

25 Alexis Pérez

2 Marwan Hassan

10 Rodri Sánchez

8 Ahmed Fathi

17 Jordan Veretout

80 Isaac Lihadji

7 Pablo Sarabia

6 Oussama Tannane

Coach · C. Contra

Substitutes

11 · Lotfi Madjer

5 · Wassim Keddari

14 · Michael Olunga

20 · Amid Mahajna

9 · Mohamed Gouda

33 · Qosai Al Haroun

98 · Jorge Monegal

24 · Yonis Yusuf Abdurisag

16 · Salem Reda Salem

44 · Hassan Mohamad

30 · Salem Al-Hajri

90 · Youssef Snana

Our number · al sadd winPublished 9 Oct 18:04

66% The market59%

Us66%

~~Market~~59%

We make Al Sadd a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al sadd win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Sadd win	66%	59%	+7
Draw	17%	20%	−3
Al-Arabi SC win	17%	20%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	77%	72%	+5
Both teams to score	69%	68%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	91%	87%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	58%	54%	+4
Al Sadd or draw	83%	80%	+4
Al Sadd clean sheet	27%	–	–
Al-Arabi SC clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.4%

0123450 2.1 1 4.5 6.5 4.2 2 6.4 8.4 5.6 2.5 3 5.8 7.6 5.1 2.3 4 4.0 5.2 3.5 5 2.2 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Sadd down, Al-Arabi SC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 688 Stars League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Stars League matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.60 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Sadd at home: 3.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Arabi SC away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.74 goals for Al Sadd, 1.34 for Al-Arabi SC. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 18:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALA 2–1 ALS · ALS 1–3 ALA · ALA 1–3 ALS · ALS 5–0 ALA

Form · last six in Stars League

AL SADD

WWWWWW3–1 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 6–2 · 4–1 · 6–3

AL-ARABI SC

LLDDWD1–2 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Sadd	4	+12	12
2	Al-Rayyan SC	4	+5	10
3	Al-Duhail SC	5	+6	9
4	Al Shamal	5	0	8
5	Al-Arabi SC	4	+2	6
6	Lusail City	4	+3	5
7	Al Wakrah	5	−4	5
8	Al Shahaniya	4	−2	4
9	Al Ahli Doha	4	−4	4
10	Al-Gharafa	5	−5	4
11	Qatar SC	4	−5	2
12	Al-Sailiya	4	−8	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Al Sadd

Al-Arabi SC

Match statistics

Line-ups

Al Sadd

Al-Arabi SC

Head to head

Form · last six in Stars League

The table