Al-Gharafa v Al Ahli Doha

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Gharafa win at 46%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Al-Gharafa 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–23–31
3. 1′KICK-OFF Al-Gharafa v Al Ahli Doha
4. 13′We said Al-Gharafa at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–17–14
5. 13′Al-Gharafa find the net on 13′. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–17–14
6. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Al-Gharafa 1–0 Al Ahli Doha
7. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Al-Gharafa win: 46% at kick-off, 69% now
8. 21′We said Al-Gharafa at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–18–13
9. 23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Amro Surag · Al-Gharafa
10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.6 we expected. 1–0 · 70–18–12
11. 36′We said Al-Gharafa at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 2–0 · 89–8–3
12. 36′Yacine Brahimi scores for Al-Gharafa on 36′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 89–8–3
13. 36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Al-Gharafa 2–0 Al Ahli Doha
14. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Al-Gharafa win: 46% at kick-off, 89% now
15. 37′We said Al-Gharafa at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
16. 45′HALF-TIME Al-Gharafa 2–0 Al Ahli Doha
17. 46′SECOND HALF Al-Gharafa 2–0 Al Ahli Doha
18. 53′52′: Erik Expósito on the scoresheet for Al Ahli Doha, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 73–19–7
19. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Al-Gharafa 2–1 Al Ahli Doha
20. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Al-Gharafa win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
21. 58′We said Al-Gharafa at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–19–6
22. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Al Ahli Doha · On: Younis Hussein Abdelrahman · Off: Ismaeel Mohammad
23. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Al-Gharafa · On: Florinel Coman · Off: Hassan Aladin
24. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Al-Gharafa · On: Hyun-Soo Jang · Off: Ismaël Bennacer
25. 71′We said Al-Gharafa at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
26. 71′Al Ahli Doha have had 21 attempts to 16 and it is still 2–1. 2–1 · 80–17–3
27. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Al-Gharafa · On: Abdulrahman Al-Rashidi · Off: Adam Ounas
28. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Al-Gharafa win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
29. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Al Ahli Doha · On: Luiz Junior · Off: Ghanem Al-Minhali
30. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Al Ahli Doha · On: Suhaib Gannan · Off: Ayoub Amraoui
31. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Al Ahli Doha · On: Zinedine Sassi · Off: Robin Tihi
32. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Al Ahli Doha · On: Hamad Mansour · Off: Benjamin Bourigeaud
33. 90′We said Al-Gharafa at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
34. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Al-Gharafa win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
35. 92′24 shots for Al Ahli Doha, 17 the other way, and they still trail 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
36. 94′We said Al-Gharafa at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–2 · 2–96–2
37. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Al-Gharafa 2–2 Al Ahli Doha
38. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Al-Gharafa win: 46% at kick-off, 2% now
39. 94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Al-Gharafa win 97%)
40. 95′Al Ahli Doha level it on 90′ through Naïm Sliti. 2–2. 2–2 · 2–96–2
41. 96′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 2–96–2
42. FTFULL TIME Al-Gharafa 2–2 Al Ahli Doha
43. FTAl-Gharafa 2–2 Al Ahli Doha · Al-Gharafa win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.