Al-Duhail SC v Lusail City prediction · Stars League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:17

Al-Duhail SC 3–1 Lusail City AL-DUHAIL SC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Duhail SC win~~54%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.316

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.189

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Duhail SC win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al-Duhail SC was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–23–23
1′KICK-OFF Al-Duhail SC v Lusail City
27′Al-Duhail SC have had 8 attempts to 0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 49–29–22
40′We published Al-Duhail SC at 54%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–16–6
40′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 78–16–6
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Al-Duhail SC 1–0 Lusail City
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Al-Duhail SC win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
41′40′: Almoez Ali on the scoresheet for Al-Duhail SC, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–16–6
45′SECOND HALF Al-Duhail SC 1–0 Lusail City
46′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Boubakary Soumaré · Al-Duhail SC
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Almoez Ali · Al-Duhail SC
49′HALF-TIME Al-Duhail SC 1–0 Lusail City
51′We published Al-Duhail SC at 54%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Lusail City · On: Hamidreza Firouzi · Off: Naif Al-Hadhrami
62′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Omid Ebrahimi · Lusail City
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Khaled Mohammed · Lusail City
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Al-Duhail SC win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
70′We published Al-Duhail SC at 54%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
70′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Mubarak Shanan Hamza · Al-Duhail SC
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Lusail City · On: Muhammad Taher Khan · Off: Khaled Mansour
75′PENALTY MISSED · 74' Almoez Ali · Al-Duhail SC
79′We published Al-Duhail SC at 54%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Al-Duhail SC win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Bassam Al-Rawi · Al-Duhail SC
87′We published Al-Duhail SC at 54%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Al-Duhail SC · On: Ibrahima Bamba · Off: Mubarak Shanan Hamza
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Lusail City · On: Mohamed Khaled · Off: Mohamed Aiash
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Lusail City · On: Saud Jjbril · Off: Khaled Mohammed
88′We said Al-Duhail SC at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–88–4
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Al-Duhail SC 1–1 Lusail City
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Al-Duhail SC win: 54% at kick-off, 8% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Al-Duhail SC win 96%)
89′Al-Duhail SC have had 18 attempts to 5 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 7–89–4
90′Lusail City level it on 89′ through Rodrigo Machado. 1–1. 1–1 · 6–91–3
92′We said Al-Duhail SC at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Al-Duhail SC win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Al-Duhail SC · On: Amidou Doumbouya · Off: Sultan Al-Brake
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Al-Duhail SC 2–1 Lusail City
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Al-Duhail SC win: 54% at kick-off, 98% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Al-Duhail SC win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 94%)
95′Boubakary Soumaré scores for Al-Duhail SC on 90′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
101′We published Al-Duhail SC at 54%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
101′🟨 YELLOW · 90+9' Ibrahima Bamba · Al-Duhail SC
101′⚽ GOAL · 90+11' Al-Duhail SC 3–1 Lusail City
102′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Al-Duhail SC 3–1 Lusail City
FTAl-Duhail SC 3–1 Lusail City · Al-Duhail SC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Duhail SC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Duhail SC 54%, draw 23%, Lusail City 23%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Al-Duhail SC v Lusail CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Al-Duhail SC win54%

Draw23%

Lusail City win23%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:45

RoundMatchday 7

VenueAbdullah bin Khalifa Stadium

Line-ups

Al-Duhail SC

4-4-2

Lusail City

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Duhail SC

Lusail City

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Stars League

Last match: 17 Oct · Stars League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Al-Duhail SC	6	+7	12
9	Lusail City	6	+2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al-Duhail SC

4-4-2

1 Salah Zakaria

21 J. Castelletto

3 Lucas Tuta

5 Bassam Al Rawi

18 Sultan Al Braik

19 Almoez Ali

23 Assim Madibo

24 B. Soumaré

7 S. Yansané

9 K. Piątek

8 Mubarak Shanan Hamza

Coach · D. Belmadi

Substitutes

94 · Awad Ashraf Awad Osman

26 · Fahad Baker

22 · I. Bamba

97 · A. Belmadi

30 · A. Doumbouya

37 · Z. El Jaouni

36 · Adam Riyad Fraikh

76 · Y. A. El Ajami

27 · Abdalla Mugib Gamer

29 · Rashid Al Abdulla

Lusail City

4-1-4-1

1 A. Shakouri

2 A. Pilali

4 F. Russo

27 M. Aiash

66 A. Nemati

6 O. Ebrahimi

7 F. Zavoshi

20 Naif Al Hadhrami

8 Khaled Mohammed

14 K. Mansour

19 Rodrigo

Coach · Emanuel Mesquita

Substitutes

45 · Muhammad Taher Khan

21 · A. Ndiaye

5 · A. Al Karatly

96 · Amir Hassan

3 · Ali Malolah

30 · H. Kamal

70 · Mohamed Khaled

11 · H. Firouzi

15 · Abdulhadi Kasr Al-Oun

77 · Mohamed Al Ashwal

10 · S. Jjbril

Our number · al-duhail sc winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 18 Oct 00:20 · locked at kick-off

54% The market65%

Us54%

~~Market~~65%

We make Al-Duhail SC a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Duhail SC v Lusail City~~1.88 – 1.12

~~Form · Stars League this season · since 20 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 6~~4 v 9

~~The market · Al-Duhail SC win~~65% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Duhail SC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Duhail SC win	54%	65%	−11
Draw	23%	20%	+3
Lusail City win	23%	15%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	57%	64%	−7
Both teams to score	56%	57%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	82%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	35%	44%	−9
Al-Duhail SC or draw	77%	85%	−8
Al-Duhail SC clean sheet	33%	–	–
Lusail City clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.8 5.4 3.3 1 8.9 10.8 5.8 2.2 2 8.6 9.4 5.2 3 5.5 5.9 3.2 4 2.7 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Duhail SC down, Lusail City across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 702 Stars League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Stars League matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.5% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Al-Duhail SC at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Lusail City away: 0.75 scored, 1.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for Al-Duhail SC, 1.12 for Lusail City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Stars League this season · since 20 Aug

AL-DUHAIL SC

WDDDWW2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 3–2

LUSAIL CITY

LDWDLD0–1 · 3–3 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Rayyan SC	7	+13	17
2	Al Sadd	7	+14	15
3	Al-Arabi SC	6	+9	12
4	Al-Duhail SC	6	+7	12
5	Al Shamal	7	−1	9
6	Al Wakrah	6	−1	8
7	Al Ahli Doha	7	−2	8
8	Al Shahaniya	7	−11	7
9	Lusail City	6	+2	6
10	Al-Gharafa	7	−5	6
11	Qatar SC	7	−7	6
12	Al-Sailiya	7	−18	1