Al Ahli Doha v Al Wakrah prediction · Stars League

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 18:31

Al Ahli Doha 0–3 Al Wakrah AL WAKRAH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Wakrah win~~43%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.494

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.627

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Wakrah win at 43%.
1′KICK-OFF Al Ahli Doha v Al Wakrah
2′Much as we predicted: Al Wakrah was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 34–23–43
19′We published Al Wakrah at 43%. Our model now makes it 67%. 0–1 · 14–19–67
19′18′: Amine Zouhzouh on the scoresheet for Al Wakrah, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 14–19–67
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Al Ahli Doha 0–1 Al Wakrah
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Al Wakrah win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 0–1 · 12–20–68
43′We published Al Wakrah at 43%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
45′HALF-TIME Al Ahli Doha 0–1 Al Wakrah
46′SECOND HALF Al Ahli Doha 0–1 Al Wakrah
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Al Wakrah win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Talal Al Shila · Al Ahli Doha
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Al Ahli Doha · On: Ghanem Al-Minhali · Off: Talal Al Shila
62′We published Al Wakrah at 43%. Our model now makes it 94%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Al Ahli Doha 0–2 Al Wakrah
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Al Wakrah win: 43% at kick-off, 94% now
63′Al Wakrah ahead on 62′ through Amine Zouhzouh. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
64′We published Al Wakrah at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Al Wakrah · On: Mohamed Simo · Off: Gelson Dala
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Al Ahli Doha · On: Luiz Junior · Off: Driss Fettouhi
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Al Wakrah · On: Almahdi Ali · Off: Ayoub Assal
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Ghanem Al-Minhali · Al Ahli Doha
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Al Ahli Doha · On: Younis Hussein Abdelrahman · Off: Ismaeel Mohammad
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Al Ahli Doha · On: Jassem Mohammed · Off: Ahmed Reyed Mawla
85′We published Al Wakrah at 43%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
90′Amine Zouhzouh scores for Al Wakrah on 90′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Al Ahli Doha 0–3 Al Wakrah · Amine Zouhzouh
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Al Wakrah · On: Abdelrahman Zaky · Off: Nabil Irfan
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Al Wakrah · On: Tamer Seyam · Off: Amine Zouhzouh
FTFULL TIME Al Ahli Doha 0–3 Al Wakrah
FTAl Ahli Doha 0–3 Al Wakrah · Al Wakrah win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Wakrah are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Ahli Doha 34%, draw 23%, Al Wakrah 43%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Al Ahli Doha v Al WakrahBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Al Ahli Doha win34%

Draw23%

Al Wakrah win43%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueHamad bin Khalifa Stadium

Line-ups

Al Ahli Doha

4-1-4-1

Al Wakrah

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Ahli Doha

Al Wakrah

6Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Stars League

Last match: 8 Oct · Stars League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Al Ahli Doha	5	+1	7
9	Al Wakrah	5	−4	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Ahli Doha

4-1-4-1

13 Mohamed Lingliz

41 Ahmed Reyed

8 Talal Al Shila

16 R. Tihi

88 A. Amraoui

33 D. Fettouhi

77 Ismaeel Mohammad

27 B. Bourigeaud

7 J. Draxler

23 N. Sliti

10 Erik Expósito

Coach · Borja Jiménez

Substitutes

18 · Jassem Mohammed

70 · Younis Abdelrahman

53 · Saleh Ahmed Qassem

20 · Hamad Mansour

12 · Ghanem Al Minhali

6 · Luiz Ceará

75 · Nasser Adil Babiker

49 · Z. Sassi

5 · W. Troost-Ekong

15 · Mohammed Abdulla Al-Ishaq

Al Wakrah

4-4-2

99 Omair Al Sayed

16 Nabil Irfan

3 P. Calione

2 Lucas Mendes

12 Murad Naji Hussein

7 A. Assal

93 A. Laïdouni

6 Omar Al Osad

10 Gelson Dala

75 A. Zouhzouh

18 Luis Alberto

Coach · J. Sierra

Substitutes

66 · Mohamed Simo

19 · Tamer Seyam

5 · Ahmed Fadel

34 · Moayed Hassan

22 · Yousef Mohammed Ramadan

14 · A. Zaky

17 · R. Boussafi

26 · Abdollah Ali Saei

15 · Almahdi Ali

20 · Nasser Al Yazidi

28 · Yousef El Khatib

89 · Abdulaziz Abdulwahab Othman

Our number · al wakrah winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

43% The market36%

Us43%

~~Market~~36%

We make Al Wakrah a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Ahli Doha v Al Wakrah~~1.60 – 1.81

~~Form · Stars League this season · since 20 Aug~~W2 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 5~~6 v 9

~~The market · Al Wakrah win~~36% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Wakrah win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Ahli Doha win	34%	40%	−6
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Al Wakrah win	43%	36%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	66%	65%	+1
Both teams to score	67%	66%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	85%	83%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	44%	44%	0
Al Ahli Doha or draw	57%	64%	−7
Al Ahli Doha clean sheet	17%	–	–
Al Wakrah clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.6 5.8 5.4 3.3 1 5.1 9.7 8.5 5.2 2.4 2 4.2 7.6 6.8 4.1 3 2.3 4.0 3.6 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Ahli Doha down, Al Wakrah across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 692 Stars League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Stars League matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 5.30 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Ahli Doha at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Al Wakrah away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Al Ahli Doha, 1.81 for Al Wakrah. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~5.30

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALW 3–2 ALA · ALA 2–2 ALW · ALA 5–3 ALW · ALA 6–3 ALW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Stars League this season · since 20 Aug

AL AHLI DOHA

LDWLW1–3 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 5–0

AL WAKRAH

DLLDW2–2 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Rayyan SC	5	+8	13
2	Al Sadd	5	+11	12
3	Al-Duhail SC	5	+6	9
4	Al-Arabi SC	5	+3	9
5	Al Shamal	5	0	8
6	Al Ahli Doha	5	+1	7
7	Al Shahaniya	5	−1	7
8	Lusail City	5	+2	5
9	Al Wakrah	5	−4	5
10	Al-Gharafa	5	−5	4
11	Qatar SC	5	−8	2
12	Al-Sailiya	5	−13	0