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Al Ahli Doha v Al-Sailiya

Al Ahli Doha

5–0Full time

Al-Sailiya

Stars League · SAT 10 OCT · Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:31

Al Ahli Doha 5–0 Al-Sailiya AL AHLI DOHA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Ahli Doha win~~44%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.480

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.297

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 43 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Ahli Doha win at 44%.
2′Much as we predicted: Al Ahli Doha was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–23–33
3′Much as we predicted: Al Ahli Doha was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–23–33
23′16′ and it is 1–0: Naïm Sliti on the scoresheet for Al Ahli Doha. 1–0 · 68–19–13
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Al Ahli Doha win: 44% at kick-off, 44% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Al Ahli Doha win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Al Ahli Doha win: 44% at kick-off, 44% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Al Ahli Doha win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Al Ahli Doha win: 44% at kick-off, 44% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Al Ahli Doha win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Al Ahli Doha win: 44% at kick-off, 44% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Al Ahli Doha win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Al Ahli Doha win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Al Ahli Doha win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Al Ahli Doha win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Al Ahli Doha 2–0 Al-Sailiya · Naïm Sliti
35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Al Ahli Doha 2–0 Al-Sailiya · Julian Draxler
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Al Ahli Doha win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Al Ahli Doha win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Al Ahli Doha win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Al Ahli Doha win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Al Ahli Doha win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Al Ahli Doha 3–0 Al-Sailiya · Julian Draxler
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Al Ahli Doha win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Al Ahli Doha 3–0 Al-Sailiya · Naïm Sliti
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Al Ahli Doha win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Al Ahli Doha win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Al Ahli Doha win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Al Ahli Doha win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
45′SUBSTITUTION · 44' Al-Sailiya · On: Younès Belhanda · Off: Moataz Bostami
45′SUBSTITUTION · 44' Al-Sailiya · On: Mus'ab Al-Batat · Off: Raoul Danzabe Sanda
45′HALF-TIME Al Ahli Doha 3–0 Al-Sailiya
46′SECOND HALF Al Ahli Doha 3–0 Al-Sailiya
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Al Ahli Doha 4–0 Al-Sailiya · Naïm Sliti
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Al Ahli Doha 4–0 Al-Sailiya · Benjamin Bourigeaud
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Al-Sailiya · On: Joselu · Off: Matías Nani
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Al-Sailiya · On: Salem Sultan Al-Sufiani · Off: Mohamed Taabouni
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Al Ahli Doha · On: Younis Hussein Abdelrahman · Off: Naïm Sliti
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Al Ahli Doha 5–0 Al-Sailiya · Benjamin Bourigeaud
84′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Al Ahli Doha · On: William Troost-Ekong · Off: Ismaeel Mohammad
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Al Ahli Doha 4–0 Al-Sailiya · Majed Mohammed
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Al Ahli Doha 5–0 Al-Sailiya · Majed Mohammed
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Al Ahli Doha · On: Luiz Junior · Off: Driss Fettouhi
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Al Ahli Doha · On: Jassem Mohammed · Off: Ahmed Reyed Mawla
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Al Ahli Doha · On: Hamad Mansour · Off: Benjamin Bourigeaud
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Al-Sailiya · On: Mohab Mohammed Eissa · Off: Anwar El Ghazi
FTFULL TIME Al Ahli Doha 5–0 Al-Sailiya
FTAl Ahli Doha 5–0 Al-Sailiya · Al Ahli Doha win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Al Ahli Doha win44%

Draw23%

Al-Sailiya win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 18:00

Venue · Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Al Ahli Doha

4-1-4-1

13 Mohamed Lingliz

41 Ahmed Reyed

8 Talal Al Shila

16 R. Tihi

88 A. Amraoui

33 D. Fettouhi

77 Ismaeel Mohammad

27 B. Bourigeaud

7 J. Draxler

23 N. Sliti

10 Erik Expósito

Coach · Borja Jiménez

Substitutes

49 · Z. Sassi

75 · Nasser Adil Babiker

6 · Luiz Ceará

15 · Mohammed Abdulla Al-Ishaq

20 · Hamad Mansour

5 · W. Troost-Ekong

53 · Saleh Ahmed Qassem

18 · Jassem Mohammed

70 · Younis Abdelrahman

Al-Sailiya

4-2-3-1

1 B. Burke

6 Moataz Bostami

4 Majed Mohammed

15 M. Nani

2 Abdulla Mahmoud Mahmoud

25 R. Danzabe

8 Ahmed Doozandeh

9 Ali Olwan

5 Abdulrahman Mohamed

10 M. Taabouni

21 A. El Ghazi

Coach · Mirghany Al-Zein

Substitutes

77 · Mouz Gadelseed Abdalla

19 · Abdulaziz Al Bakri

71 · Mus'ab Al Battat

31 · M. Al Bustami

20 · Y. Belhanda

55 · K. van der Kaap

22 · Andri Syahputra

99 · Salem Al-Sufiani

50 · Youssef Sayed

13 · Joselu

18 · Awab Hussain

7 · Mohab Mohammed Eissa

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Al Ahli Doha

4-1-4-1

13 Mohamed Lingliz

41 Ahmed Reyed

8 Talal Al Shila

16 R. Tihi

88 A. Amraoui

33 D. Fettouhi

77 Ismaeel Mohammad

27 B. Bourigeaud

7 J. Draxler

23 N. Sliti

10 Erik Expósito

Coach · Borja Jiménez

Substitutes

49 · Z. Sassi

75 · Nasser Adil Babiker

6 · Luiz Ceará

15 · Mohammed Abdulla Al-Ishaq

20 · Hamad Mansour

5 · W. Troost-Ekong

53 · Saleh Ahmed Qassem

18 · Jassem Mohammed

70 · Younis Abdelrahman

Al-Sailiya

4-2-3-1

1 B. Burke

6 Moataz Bostami

4 Majed Mohammed

15 M. Nani

2 Abdulla Mahmoud Mahmoud

25 R. Danzabe

8 Ahmed Doozandeh

9 Ali Olwan

5 Abdulrahman Mohamed

10 M. Taabouni

21 A. El Ghazi

Coach · Mirghany Al-Zein

Substitutes

77 · Mouz Gadelseed Abdalla

19 · Abdulaziz Al Bakri

71 · Mus'ab Al Battat

31 · M. Al Bustami

20 · Y. Belhanda

55 · K. van der Kaap

22 · Andri Syahputra

99 · Salem Al-Sufiani

50 · Youssef Sayed

13 · Joselu

18 · Awab Hussain

7 · Mohab Mohammed Eissa

Our number · al ahli doha winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

44% The market55%

Us44%

~~Market~~55%

We make Al Ahli Doha a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al ahli doha win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 59% to 55% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Ahli Doha win	44%	55%	−12
Draw	23%	23%	+1
Al-Sailiya win	33%	22%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	64%	65%	−1
Both teams to score	65%	63%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	83%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	42%	44%	−2
Al Ahli Doha or draw	67%	78%	−11
Al Ahli Doha clean sheet	22%	–	–
Al-Sailiya clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.1 5.3 4.3 2.2 1 6.3 10.2 7.5 3.8 2 5.8 8.7 6.6 3.4 3 3.5 5.2 3.9 2.0 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Ahli Doha down, Al-Sailiya across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 690 Stars League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Stars League matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.17 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Ahli Doha at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Sailiya away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Al Ahli Doha, 1.52 for Al-Sailiya. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ALA 2–2 ALS · ALS 1–2 ALA · ALA 0–4 ALS · ALS 1–2 ALA

Form · last six in Stars League

AL AHLI DOHA

WWLDWL2–1 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 0–3

AL-SAILIYA

WLLLLL2–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 3–6

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Rayyan SC	5	+8	13
2	Al Sadd	5	+11	12
3	Al-Duhail SC	5	+6	9
4	Al-Arabi SC	5	+3	9
5	Al Shamal	5	0	8
6	Lusail City	4	+3	5
7	Al Wakrah	5	−4	5
8	Al Shahaniya	4	−2	4
9	Al Ahli Doha	4	−4	4
10	Al-Gharafa	5	−5	4
11	Qatar SC	5	−8	2
12	Al-Sailiya	4	−8	0