UMM Salal v Al Bidda SC prediction · Second Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

UMM SalalDrawAl Bidda SC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · UMM Salal 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with UMM Salal just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: UMM Salal 39%, draw 26%, Al Bidda SC 35%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on UMM Salal v Al Bidda SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

UMM Salal win39%

Draw26%

Al Bidda SC win35%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 5

VenueThani bin Jassim Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UMM Salal

Al Bidda SC

15Days since last match14

Last match: 14 Oct · Second Division

Last match: 15 Oct · Second Division

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Al Bidda SC	4	+2	7
6	UMM Salal	4	−2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · umm salal winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make UMM Salal a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UMM Salal v Al Bidda SC~~1.53 – 1.43

~~Form · Second Division this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 7~~6 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UMM Salal win	39%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Al Bidda SC win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
UMM Salal or draw	65%	–	–
UMM Salal clean sheet	24%	–	–
Al Bidda SC clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.0 6.9 5.3 2.6 1 7.4 11.8 8.0 3.8 2 6.1 8.5 6.0 2.9 3 3.1 4.4 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UMM Salal down, Al Bidda SC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 304 Second Division matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.9% of games recently, across 304 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UMM Salal at home: 1.00 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 2). Al Bidda SC away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for UMM Salal, 1.43 for Al Bidda SC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~UMM 2–0 ALB · UMM 3–1 ALB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Second Division this season · since 23 Aug

UMM SALAL

DWLW1–1 · 2–1 · 1–5 · 1–0

AL BIDDA SC

DWWL1–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Markhiya	4	+10	12
2	Al Kharaitiyat	4	+5	8
3	Al Mesaimeer	4	+5	7
4	Al Bidda SC	4	+2	7
5	Al Waab	4	+2	7
6	UMM Salal	4	−2	7
7	Muaither SC	4	+3	6
8	Al-Khor	4	+2	6
9	Qatar U23	4	−1	5
10	Al Shamal II	4	−7	1
11	Al-Gharafa B	4	−9	1
12	Al Rayyan SC B	4	−10	0