Qatar U23 v Al-Markhiya prediction · Second Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Qatar U23DrawAl-Markhiya

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Al-Markhiya 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Markhiya are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Qatar U23 23%, draw 25%, Al-Markhiya 52%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Qatar U23 v Al-MarkhiyaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Qatar U23 win23%

Draw25%

Al-Markhiya win52%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 14:15

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Qatar U23

Al-Markhiya

13Days since last match14

Last match: 15 Oct · Second Division

Last match: 14 Oct · Second Division

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-markhiya winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Al-Markhiya a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Qatar U23 v Al-Markhiya~~1.08 – 1.75

~~Form · Second Division this season · since 23 Aug~~W1 D2 L1 · W4 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 5 v 12~~9 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Qatar U23 win	23%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Al-Markhiya win	52%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Qatar U23 or draw	48%	–	–
Qatar U23 clean sheet	18%	–	–
Al-Markhiya clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.8 9.8 9.0 5.2 2.3 1 5.9 11.7 9.5 5.5 2.5 2 3.5 6.0 5.1 3.0 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Qatar U23 down, Al-Markhiya across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number5 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 304 Second Division matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.9% of games recently, across 304 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Qatar U23, 1.75 for Al-Markhiya. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Second Division this season · since 23 Aug

QATAR U23

DLDW1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

AL-MARKHIYA

WWWW3–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Markhiya	4	+10	12
2	Al Kharaitiyat	4	+5	8
3	Al Mesaimeer	4	+5	7
4	Al Bidda SC	4	+2	7
5	Al Waab	4	+2	7
6	UMM Salal	4	−2	7
7	Muaither SC	4	+3	6
8	Al-Khor	4	+2	6
9	Qatar U23	4	−1	5
10	Al Shamal II	4	−7	1
11	Al-Gharafa B	4	−9	1
12	Al Rayyan SC B	4	−10	0