Muaither SC v Qatar U23 prediction · Second Division

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 20:30

Muaither SC 1–2 Qatar U23 MUAITHER SC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Muaither SC win~~46%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.774

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.546

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Muaither SC win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Muaither SC 46% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–30
1′KICK-OFF Muaither SC v Qatar U23
45′HALF-TIME Muaither SC 0–0 Qatar U23
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Muaither SC win: 46% at kick-off, 38% now
46′SECOND HALF Muaither SC 0–0 Qatar U23
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Muaither SC win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Muaither SC win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Muaither SC win 35%)
53′A goal for Qatar U23 on 53′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–24–65
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Muaither SC 0–1 Qatar U23
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Muaither SC win: 46% at kick-off, 10% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Qatar U23 win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Draw 24%)
54′We said Muaither SC at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–24–66
57′We said Muaither SC at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Muaither SC win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
69′Qatar U23 score on 69′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Muaither SC 0–2 Qatar U23
70′We said Muaither SC at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–4–96
71′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–2 · 0–4–96
78′Muaither SC find the net on 78′. 1–2. 1–2 · 2–15–83
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Muaither SC 1–2 Qatar U23
FTFULL TIME Muaither SC 1–2 Qatar U23
FTMuaither SC 1–2 Qatar U23 · Muaither SC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Muaither SC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Muaither SC 46%, draw 25%, Qatar U23 29%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Muaither SC v Qatar U23Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Muaither SC win46%

Draw25%

Qatar U23 win29%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 17:45

RoundMatchday 4

VenueHamad bin Khalifa Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Muaither SC

Qatar U23

14Days since last match27

Last match: 1 Oct · QSL Cup

Last match: 18 Sept · Asian Games

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Muaither SC	3	+4	6
9	Qatar U23	3	−2	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · muaither sc winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

46% The market34%

Us46%

~~Market~~34%

We make Muaither SC a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Muaither SC v Qatar U23~~1.70 – 1.31

~~Form · Second Division this season · since 24 Aug~~W2 D0 L1 · W0 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 2~~6 v 9

~~The market · Muaither SC win~~34% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Muaither SC win	46%	34%	+12
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Qatar U23 win	29%	40%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	58%	54%	+4
Both teams to score	59%	58%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	77%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	35%	33%	+2
Muaither SC or draw	71%	60%	+11
Muaither SC clean sheet	27%	–	–
Qatar U23 clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.7 6.0 4.3 1 7.9 11.4 7.1 3.1 2 7.1 9.1 5.9 2.6 3 4.1 5.2 3.4 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Muaither SC down, Qatar U23 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 301 Second Division matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games recently, across 301 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Muaither SC at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Qatar U23 away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Muaither SC, 1.31 for Qatar U23. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Second Division this season · since 24 Aug

MUAITHER SC

LWW0–1 · 5–1 · 1–0

QATAR U23

DLD1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Markhiya	4	+10	12
2	Al Mesaimeer	4	+5	7
3	Al Bidda SC	3	+5	7
4	Al Waab	4	+2	7
5	UMM Salal	4	−2	7
6	Muaither SC	3	+4	6
7	Al Kharaitiyat	3	+2	5
8	Al-Khor	3	−1	3
9	Qatar U23	3	−2	2
10	Al Shamal II	4	−7	1
11	Al-Gharafa B	4	−9	1
12	Al Rayyan SC B	3	−7	0