Al Waab v Al Kharaitiyat prediction · Second Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al WaabDrawAl Kharaitiyat

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Kharaitiyat 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Kharaitiyat are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Waab 24%, draw 26%, Al Kharaitiyat 50%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Al Waab v Al KharaitiyatBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Waab win24%

Draw26%

Al Kharaitiyat win50%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 14:15

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Waab

Al Kharaitiyat

15Days since last match14

Last match: 14 Oct · Second Division

Last match: 15 Oct · Second Division

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Al Kharaitiyat	4	+5	8
5	Al Waab	4	+2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al kharaitiyat winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Al Kharaitiyat a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Waab v Al Kharaitiyat~~1.03 – 1.59

~~Form · Second Division this season · since 24 Aug~~W2 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 8~~5 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Waab win	24%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Al Kharaitiyat win	50%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Al Waab or draw	50%	–	–
Al Waab clean sheet	21%	–	–
Al Kharaitiyat clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.1 11.0 9.2 4.9 1 6.9 12.5 9.4 5.0 2 3.9 6.1 4.8 2.6 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Waab down, Al Kharaitiyat across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 304 Second Division matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.9% of games recently, across 304 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Waab at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Al Kharaitiyat away: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Al Waab, 1.59 for Al Kharaitiyat. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALK 0–1 ALW · ALW 0–2 ALK · ALK 0–3 ALW · ALW 1–0 ALK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Second Division this season · since 24 Aug

AL WAAB

WWDL1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

AL KHARAITIYAT

DWDW0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 5–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Markhiya	4	+10	12
2	Al Kharaitiyat	4	+5	8
3	Al Mesaimeer	4	+5	7
4	Al Bidda SC	4	+2	7
5	Al Waab	4	+2	7
6	UMM Salal	4	−2	7
7	Muaither SC	4	+3	6
8	Al-Khor	4	+2	6
9	Qatar U23	4	−1	5
10	Al Shamal II	4	−7	1
11	Al-Gharafa B	4	−9	1
12	Al Rayyan SC B	4	−10	0