Al Rayyan SC B v Al-Khor prediction · Second Division

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 18:01

Al Rayyan SC B 1–4 Al-Khor AL-KHOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Khor win~~53%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.336

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.271

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Khor win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Al-Khor 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 25–22–53
1′KICK-OFF Al Rayyan SC B v Al-Khor
23′Al-Khor score on 23′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–16–75
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Al Rayyan SC B 0–1 Al-Khor
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Al-Khor win: 53% at kick-off, 75% now
24′We said Al-Khor at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 9–16–75
29′Al-Khor find the net on 28′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–92
29′We said Al-Khor at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
29′⚽ GOAL · 28' Al Rayyan SC B 0–2 Al-Khor
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Al-Khor win: 53% at kick-off, 92% now
31′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 0–1 · 8–16–76
31′GOAL DISALLOWED · 31' Al-Khor
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Al-Khor win: 53% at kick-off, 76% now
45′HALF-TIME Al Rayyan SC B 0–1 Al-Khor
46′SECOND HALF Al Rayyan SC B 0–1 Al-Khor
51′Al-Khor find the net on 51′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
51′We said Al-Khor at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Al Rayyan SC B 0–2 Al-Khor
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Al-Khor win: 53% at kick-off, 95% now
62′A goal for Al-Khor on 62′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Al Rayyan SC B 0–3 Al-Khor
63′We said Al-Khor at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
64′Al-Khor score on 64′ to make it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Al Rayyan SC B 0–4 Al-Khor
65′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
74′Al Rayyan SC B find the net on 73′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Al Rayyan SC B 1–4 Al-Khor
75′5 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Al Rayyan SC B 1–4 Al-Khor
FTAl Rayyan SC B 1–4 Al-Khor · Al-Khor win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Khor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Rayyan SC B 25%, draw 23%, Al-Khor 53%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Al Rayyan SC B v Al-KhorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Al Rayyan SC B win25%

Draw23%

Al-Khor win53%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Rayyan SC B

Al-Khor

39Days since last match16

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Al-Khor	3	−1	3
12	Al Rayyan SC B	3	−7	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-khor winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

53% The market58%

Us53%

~~Market~~58%

We make Al-Khor a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Rayyan SC B v Al-Khor~~1.29 – 1.98

~~Form · Second Division this season · since 23 Aug~~W0 D0 L3 · W1 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 0 v 3~~12 v 8

~~The market · Al-Khor win~~58% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Khor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Rayyan SC B win	25%	20%	+5
Draw	23%	23%	0
Al-Khor win	53%	58%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	63%	60%	+3
Both teams to score	62%	59%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	84%	80%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	41%	40%	+1
Al Rayyan SC B or draw	47%	42%	+5
Al Rayyan SC B clean sheet	14%	–	–
Al-Khor clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.5 7.1 7.4 4.9 2.5 1 4.5 10.1 9.4 6.2 3.1 2 3.2 6.2 6.0 4.0 3 2.7 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Rayyan SC B down, Al-Khor across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 301 Second Division matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games recently, across 301 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Al Rayyan SC B at home: 0.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 1). Al-Khor away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Al Rayyan SC B, 1.98 for Al-Khor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Second Division this season · since 23 Aug

AL RAYYAN SC B

LLL0–1 · 1–5 · 0–2

AL-KHOR

LLW0–3 · 1–3 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Markhiya	4	+10	12
2	Al Mesaimeer	4	+5	7
3	Al Bidda SC	3	+5	7
4	Al Waab	4	+2	7
5	UMM Salal	4	−2	7
6	Muaither SC	3	+4	6
7	Al Kharaitiyat	3	+2	5
8	Al-Khor	3	−1	3
9	Qatar U23	3	−2	2
10	Al Shamal II	4	−7	1
11	Al-Gharafa B	4	−9	1
12	Al Rayyan SC B	3	−7	0