Al-Khor v Al-Gharafa B prediction · Second Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al-KhorDrawAl-Gharafa B

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Al-Khor 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Khor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Khor 57%, draw 22%, Al-Gharafa B 21%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Al-Khor v Al-Gharafa BBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al-Khor win57%

Draw22%

Al-Gharafa B win21%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 5

VenueAl Khor Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Khor

Al-Gharafa B

13Days since last match14

Last match: 15 Oct · Second Division

Last match: 14 Oct · Second Division

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Al-Khor	4	+2	6
11	Al-Gharafa B	4	−9	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-khor winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Al-Khor a 57% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Khor v Al-Gharafa B~~2.11 – 1.22

~~Form · Second Division this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D0 L2 · W0 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 1~~8 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Khor win	57%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Al-Gharafa B win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Al-Khor or draw	79%	–	–
Al-Khor clean sheet	30%	–	–
Al-Gharafa B clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.3 4.0 2.8 1 7.1 9.7 5.6 2.3 2 7.9 9.4 5.8 2.4 3 5.5 6.6 4.0 4 3.0 3.5 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Khor down, Al-Gharafa B across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 304 Second Division matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.9% of games recently, across 304 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Al-Khor at home: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Gharafa B away: 0.50 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

2.11 goals for Al-Khor, 1.22 for Al-Gharafa B. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Second Division this season · since 23 Aug

AL-KHOR

LLWW0–3 · 1–3 · 5–1 · 4–1

AL-GHARAFA B

DLLL1–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Markhiya	4	+10	12
2	Al Kharaitiyat	4	+5	8
3	Al Mesaimeer	4	+5	7
4	Al Bidda SC	4	+2	7
5	Al Waab	4	+2	7
6	UMM Salal	4	−2	7
7	Muaither SC	4	+3	6
8	Al-Khor	4	+2	6
9	Qatar U23	4	−1	5
10	Al Shamal II	4	−7	1
11	Al-Gharafa B	4	−9	1
12	Al Rayyan SC B	4	−10	0