Vitoria Setubal v UD da Serra

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said UD da Serra win at 37%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: UD da Serra was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–25–37
3. 1′KICK-OFF Vitoria Setubal v UD da Serra
4. 38′UD da Serra score on 37′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 11–22–67
5. 38′We published UD da Serra at 37%. Our model now makes it 67%. 0–1 · 11–22–67
6. 38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Vitoria Setubal 0–1 UD da Serra
7. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' UD da Serra win: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
8. 38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' UD da Serra win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Vitoria Setubal win 11%)
9. 39′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 11–22–67
10. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Vitoria Setubal
11. 45′HALF-TIME Vitoria Setubal 0–1 UD da Serra
12. 46′SECOND HALF Vitoria Setubal 0–1 UD da Serra
13. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Vitoria Setubal
14. 48′We published UD da Serra at 37%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–22–70
15. 62′We published UD da Serra at 37%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
16. 63′Vitoria Setubal find the net on 62′. 1–1. 1–1 · 25–50–25
17. 63′We said UD da Serra at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–50–25
18. 63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Vitoria Setubal 1–1 UD da Serra
19. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' UD da Serra win: 37% at kick-off, 25% now
20. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was UD da Serra win 25%)
21. 65′We said UD da Serra at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–24
22. 73′We said UD da Serra at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–62–19
23. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' UD da Serra
24. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' UD da Serra win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
25. 79′We said UD da Serra at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–14
26. 84′We said UD da Serra at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 8–83–9
27. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' UD da Serra win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
28. 90′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 47%. 1–1 · 26–47–26
29. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Vitoria Setubal
30. 97′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 54%. 1–1 · 23–54–23
31. 101′🟨 YELLOW · 101' UD da Serra
32. 111′🟨 YELLOW · 110' UD da Serra
33. 115′🟨 YELLOW · 106' Vitoria Setubal
34. 118′🟨 YELLOW · 118' UD da Serra
35. 120′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vitoria Setubal · On: B. dos Santos · Off: J. Delgado
36. 120′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vitoria Setubal · On: R. Geraldo · Off: F. Pala
37. 120′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Vitoria Setubal · On: Ze Mario · Off: G. Teixeira
38. 120′SUBSTITUTION · 66' UD da Serra · On: J. Costa · Off: T. F. Justino G.
39. 120′SUBSTITUTION · 66' UD da Serra · On: Vieirinha · Off: W. Costa
40. 120′SUBSTITUTION · 81' UD da Serra · On: D. Gameiro · Off: I. Nabais
41. 120′SUBSTITUTION · 87' UD da Serra · On: E. Frazier · Off: I. Alves
42. FTFULL TIME Vitoria Setubal 1–1 UD da Serra after penalties
43. FTVitoria Setubal 1–1 UD da Serra after 90 minutes, as graded · UD da Serra win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.