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Vianense v Leixoes
VianenseLeixoesTaça de Portugal · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Leixoes win at 51%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Leixoes was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 25–24–51
- 1′KICK-OFF Vianense v Leixoes
- 6′Much as we predicted: Leixoes was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 25–25–50
- 22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Vianense
- 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Leixoes win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Vianense 0–0 Leixoes
- 46′SECOND HALF Vianense 0–0 Leixoes
- 47′We said Leixoes at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 23–38–39
- 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Leixoes win 37%)
- 55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 21–43–36
- 58′We said Leixoes at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 20–45–34
- 59′Vianense find the net on 58′. 1–0. 1–0 · 66–25–9
- 59′We said Leixoes at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–25–9
- 59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Vianense 1–0 Leixoes
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Leixoes win: 51% at kick-off, 9% now
- 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Vianense win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 25%)
- 71′We said Leixoes at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
- 76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Leixoes
- 79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Leixoes
- 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Leixoes win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
- 83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Leixoes
- 85′A red card for Leixoes on 84′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 91–9–0
- 85′🟥 RED CARD · 84' Leixoes
- 88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Leixoes
- 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Leixoes
- FTFULL TIME Vianense 1–0 Leixoes
- FTVianense 1–0 Leixoes · Leixoes win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassLeixoes are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Vianense 25%, draw 24%, Leixoes 51%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Vianense win25%Leixoes win51%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
RoundRound of 64
Match timeline
All events
VianenseMINLeixoesEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Vianense
Leixoes
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Vianense
Leixoes
Last match: 10 Oct · the Portuguese Liga 3
Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda Liga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Vianense
Formation not confirmed
16 V. Sao Bento
19 G. Faria
3 Laercio
46 Yuri
68 D. Maga
10 Reko
8 B. Silva
80 R. Melro
11 Rashid
7 M. Conceicao
9 P. Soares
Coach · Filipe Mesquita
Substitutes
13 · N. Silva
20 · J. Marques
88 · Edu
21 · H. Brito
70 · J. Castro
48 · Dionisio
14 · H. Doukoure
23 · L. Nsonga
30 · A. Kamara
Leixoes
Formation not confirmed
26 Caio
2 F. Fonseca
3 L. Figueiredo
6 A. Balde
7 S. Agra
8 Miguel Sousa
9 Bica
30 N. Serif
35 B. Rochez
63 H. Faria
80 J. Assuncao
Coach · Carlos Fangueiro
Substitutes
51 · I. Stefanovic
77 · Paulinho
44 · Semeu
15 · Simaozinho
14 · Alysson
17 · Arthur Baggio
33 · Luccas Paraizo
71 · Kaique
88 · R. Pina
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Vianense
Formation not confirmed
16 V. Sao Bento
19 G. Faria
3 Laercio
46 Yuri
68 D. Maga
10 Reko
8 B. Silva
80 R. Melro
11 Rashid
7 M. Conceicao
9 P. Soares
Coach · Filipe Mesquita
Substitutes
13 · N. Silva
20 · J. Marques
88 · Edu
21 · H. Brito
70 · J. Castro
48 · Dionisio
14 · H. Doukoure
23 · L. Nsonga
30 · A. Kamara
Leixoes
Formation not confirmed
26 Caio
2 F. Fonseca
3 L. Figueiredo
6 A. Balde
7 S. Agra
8 Miguel Sousa
9 Bica
30 N. Serif
35 B. Rochez
63 H. Faria
80 J. Assuncao
Coach · Carlos Fangueiro
Substitutes
51 · I. Stefanovic
77 · Paulinho
44 · Semeu
15 · Simaozinho
14 · Alysson
17 · Arthur Baggio
33 · Luccas Paraizo
71 · Kaique
88 · R. Pina
We make Leixoes a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 52%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vianense win | 25% | 17% | +8 |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | −1 |
| Leixoes win | 51% | 58% | −7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 49% | +7 |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 48% | +9 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 72% | +7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 29% | +4 |
| Vianense or draw | 49% | 42% | +7 |
| Vianense clean sheet | 17% | – | – |
| Leixoes clean sheet | 31% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 30 Aug
VIANENSE
LEIXOES