União Santarém v GIL Vicente

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said GIL Vicente win at 58%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: GIL Vicente was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 16–26–58
3. 1′KICK-OFF União Santarém v GIL Vicente
4. 8′🟨 YELLOW · 9' GIL Vicente
5. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' GIL Vicente win: 58% at kick-off, 48% now
6. 39′We said GIL Vicente at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 46%. 0–0 · 15–39–46
7. 45′A goal for União Santarém on 46′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 57–29–14
8. 45′SECOND HALF União Santarém 0–0 GIL Vicente
9. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' União Santarém 1–0 GIL Vicente
10. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' GIL Vicente win: 58% at kick-off, 14% now
11. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' União Santarém win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was GIL Vicente win 14%)
12. 46′We said GIL Vicente at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 15–42–43 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
13. 46′HALF-TIME União Santarém 0–0 GIL Vicente
14. 47′We said GIL Vicente at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 58–29–13
15. 50′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 60–28–12
16. 52′We said GIL Vicente at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 14–47–39
17. 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' União Santarém 1–1 GIL Vicente
18. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' GIL Vicente win: 58% at kick-off, 39% now
19. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was União Santarém win 14%)
20. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 9' GIL Vicente
21. 53′53′ and it is 1–1: GIL Vicente have scored. 1–1 · 14–48–39
22. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' União Santarém 2–1 GIL Vicente · R. Camacho
23. 56′União Santarém find the net on 55′. 2–1. 2–1 · 63–27–9
24. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' GIL Vicente win: 58% at kick-off, 9% now
25. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' União Santarém win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Draw 27%)
26. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 57' GIL Vicente
27. 58′We said GIL Vicente at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 65–27–9
28. 58′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 65–27–9
29. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' GIL Vicente win: 58% at kick-off, 7% now
30. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 56' União Santarém · On: Tiago Andre · Off: S. Diarra
31. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 9' A. Espigares · GIL Vicente
32. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 57' D. Prioste · GIL Vicente
33. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' GIL Vicente · On: Ze Carlos · Off: J. Fernandes
34. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' GIL Vicente · On: T. Toure · Off: M. Fernandez
35. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' GIL Vicente · On: Walace Franca · Off: D. Prioste
36. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' GIL Vicente · On: R. Esgaio · Off: Guilherme Gomes
37. 69′We said GIL Vicente at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 73–22–4
38. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 74' União Santarém · On: B. Sousa · Off: L. Martins
39. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' União Santarém · On: J. Nobrega · Off: R. Camacho
40. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' União Santarém · On: G. Isnaba · Off: Costinha
41. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 74' GIL Vicente · On: Murilo de Souza · Off: A. Moreira
42. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' GIL Vicente
43. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' R. Esgaio · GIL Vicente
44. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' União Santarém 2–2 GIL Vicente · A. Moreira
45. 89′A goal for GIL Vicente on 89′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 2–92–6
46. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 92% (was União Santarém win 2%)
47. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP GIL Vicente win: 58% at kick-off, 34% now
48. 91′4 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 2–94–4
49. 91′We said GIL Vicente at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 2–2 · 12–54–34
50. 96′We said GIL Vicente at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 11–60–29
51. 96′SUBSTITUTION · 96' União Santarém · On: D. Ressurreicao · Off: R. Mordomo
52. 96′SUBSTITUTION · 96' União Santarém · On: M. Pami · Off: A. Soumare
53. 100′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 100' GIL Vicente win: 58% at kick-off, 26% now
54. 102′We said GIL Vicente at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 9–67–24
55. 106′We said GIL Vicente at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 8–73–19
56. 107′🟨 YELLOW · 107' União Santarém
57. 107′🟨 YELLOW · 107' M. Pami · União Santarém
58. 108′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 108' GIL Vicente win: 58% at kick-off, 17% now
59. 109′109′ and it is 2–3: Ze Carlos on the scoresheet for GIL Vicente. 2–3 · 0–6–94
60. 109′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 109' GIL Vicente win: 58% at kick-off, 94% now
61. 109′THE CALL SWINGS · 109' GIL Vicente win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
62. 111′We published GIL Vicente at 58%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–3 · 0–5–95
63. 112′We said GIL Vicente at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 2–2 · 5–83–12 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
64. 112′🟨 YELLOW · 107' União Santarém
65. 113′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–4–96
66. 113′⚽ GOAL · 108' União Santarém 2–3 GIL Vicente
67. 114′🟨 YELLOW · 105' M. Pami · União Santarém
68. 114′🟨 YELLOW · 108' B. Sousa · União Santarém
69. 119′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 119' GIL Vicente win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
70. FTFULL TIME União Santarém 2–3 GIL Vicente
71. FTUnião Santarém 2–2 GIL Vicente after 90 minutes, as graded · GIL Vicente win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.