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Model 1.2

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União de Leiria v Bragança

União de Leiria
2–1Full time
Bragança

Taça de Portugal · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42
União de Leiria 2–1 Bragança UNIÃO DE LEIRIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said União de Leiria win68%
The market said77%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.155
The market’s Brier score0.082

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said União de Leiria win at 68%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: União de Leiria was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 68–19–13
  3. 1′KICK-OFF União de Leiria v Bragança
  4. 23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Bragança
  5. 25′Bragança find the net on 25′. 0–1. 0–1 · 34–27–39
  6. 25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' União de Leiria
  7. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' União de Leiria 0–1 Bragança
  8. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' União de Leiria win: 68% at kick-off, 34% now
  9. 25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Bragança win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was União de Leiria win 34%)
  10. 26′We said União de Leiria at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–1 · 33–27–39
  11. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 31–28–41
  12. 34′We said União de Leiria at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–29–42
  13. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' União de Leiria win: 68% at kick-off, 28% now
  14. 43′We said União de Leiria at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–30–46
  15. 45′HALF-TIME União de Leiria 0–1 Bragança
  16. 46′SECOND HALF União de Leiria 0–1 Bragança
  17. 48′A goal for União de Leiria on 48′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 51–35–14
  18. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' União de Leiria 1–1 Bragança
  19. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' União de Leiria win: 68% at kick-off, 51% now
  20. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' União de Leiria win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Bragança win 14%)
  21. 49′We said União de Leiria at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 51%. 1–1 · 51–35–14
  22. 51′We said União de Leiria at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–37–14
  23. 56′PENALTY MISSED · 56' União de Leiria
  24. 59′We said União de Leiria at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–43–13
  25. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' União de Leiria
  26. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was União de Leiria win 41%)
  27. 65′União de Leiria score on 64′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 88–11–1
  28. 65′We published União de Leiria at 68%. Our model now makes it 88%. 2–1 · 88–11–1
  29. 65′⚽ GOAL · 64' União de Leiria 2–1 Bragança
  30. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' União de Leiria win: 68% at kick-off, 88% now
  31. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' União de Leiria win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 11%)
  32. 73′We published União de Leiria at 68%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  33. 84′We published União de Leiria at 68%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  34. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' União de Leiria
  35. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' União de Leiria win: 68% at kick-off, 98% now
  36. FTFULL TIME União de Leiria 2–1 Bragança
  37. FTUnião de Leiria 2–1 Bragança · União de Leiria win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

União de Leiria are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: União de Leiria 68%, draw 19%, Bragança 13%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on União de Leiria v BragançaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

União de Leiria win68%
Draw19%
Bragança win13%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundRound of 64

Line-ups

União de Leiria

Bragança

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

União de Leiria

Bragança

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda Liga

Last match: 11 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

União de Leiria

Formation not confirmed

80 C. Joel

3 M. Baro

11 Jair da Silva

17 P. Fernandez

18 Tharlley

21 Jaiminho

29 D. Loppy

34 Quilma

44 Marcelo

68 Maga

98 Guirassy

Coach · Fabio Pereira

Substitutes

99 · J. Odehnal

6 · E. Kouassi

7 · N. Ondo

8 · Reko

9 · J. Munoz

16 · Ze Pedro

25 · D. Amado

79 · P. Oliveira

88 · D. Martins

Bragança

Formation not confirmed

12 A. Reis

25 H. Silva

6 J. G. Passas Luciano

14 Eddy

3 L. Moreira

5 M. Varela

8 Kika

17 Pipo

7 Ushindi

9 G. Matos Monteiro

31 D. Mendes

Coach · –

Our number · união de leiria winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
68% The market77%
Us68%
Market77%

We make União de Leiria a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · União de Leiria v Bragança2.24 – 0.87
Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 30 AugW1 D0 L0 · W2 D0 L0
The market · União de Leiria win77% · ours 68%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75%80% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 15:16
Our probability · União de Leiria win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 77% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
União de Leiria win68%77%−9
Draw19%16%+3
Bragança win13%7%+6
Over 2.5 goals60%60%0
Both teams to score52%41%+11
Over 1.5 goals82%80%+2
Over 3.5 goals38%40%−2
União de Leiria or draw87%93%−6
União de Leiria clean sheet42%––
Bragança clean sheet11%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.2%
0123450 4.7 3.6 1 9.7 9.0 3.8 2 11.2 9.7 4.2 3 8.3 7.3 3.2 4 4.7 4.1 5 2.1
under 2% 5% 12%+União de Leiria down, Bragança across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 30 Aug

UNIÃO DE LEIRIA

W2–0

BRAGANÇA

WW4–0 · 6–1