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União de Leiria v Bragança
União de Leiria
BragançaTaça de Portugal · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said União de Leiria win at 68%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: União de Leiria was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 68–19–13
- 1′KICK-OFF União de Leiria v Bragança
- 23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Bragança
- 25′Bragança find the net on 25′. 0–1. 0–1 · 34–27–39
- 25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' União de Leiria
- 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' União de Leiria 0–1 Bragança
- 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' União de Leiria win: 68% at kick-off, 34% now
- 25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Bragança win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was União de Leiria win 34%)
- 26′We said União de Leiria at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–1 · 33–27–39
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 31–28–41
- 34′We said União de Leiria at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–29–42
- 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' União de Leiria win: 68% at kick-off, 28% now
- 43′We said União de Leiria at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–30–46
- 45′HALF-TIME União de Leiria 0–1 Bragança
- 46′SECOND HALF União de Leiria 0–1 Bragança
- 48′A goal for União de Leiria on 48′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 51–35–14
- 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' União de Leiria 1–1 Bragança
- 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' União de Leiria win: 68% at kick-off, 51% now
- 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' União de Leiria win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Bragança win 14%)
- 49′We said União de Leiria at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 51%. 1–1 · 51–35–14
- 51′We said União de Leiria at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–37–14
- 56′PENALTY MISSED · 56' União de Leiria
- 59′We said União de Leiria at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–43–13
- 61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' União de Leiria
- 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was União de Leiria win 41%)
- 65′União de Leiria score on 64′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 88–11–1
- 65′We published União de Leiria at 68%. Our model now makes it 88%. 2–1 · 88–11–1
- 65′⚽ GOAL · 64' União de Leiria 2–1 Bragança
- 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' União de Leiria win: 68% at kick-off, 88% now
- 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' União de Leiria win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 11%)
- 73′We published União de Leiria at 68%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
- 84′We published União de Leiria at 68%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
- 87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' União de Leiria
- 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' União de Leiria win: 68% at kick-off, 98% now
- FTFULL TIME União de Leiria 2–1 Bragança
- FTUnião de Leiria 2–1 Bragança · União de Leiria win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassUnião de Leiria are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: União de Leiria 68%, draw 19%, Bragança 13%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 52%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
União de Leiria win68%
Bragança win13%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00
RoundRound of 64
Match timeline
All events
União de LeiriaMIN
BragançaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
União de Leiria
Bragança
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
União de Leiria
Bragança
Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda Liga
Last match: 11 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
União de Leiria
Formation not confirmed
80 C. Joel
3 M. Baro
11 Jair da Silva
17 P. Fernandez
18 Tharlley
21 Jaiminho
29 D. Loppy
34 Quilma
44 Marcelo
68 Maga
98 Guirassy
Coach · Fabio Pereira
Substitutes
99 · J. Odehnal
6 · E. Kouassi
7 · N. Ondo
8 · Reko
9 · J. Munoz
16 · Ze Pedro
25 · D. Amado
79 · P. Oliveira
88 · D. Martins
Bragança
Formation not confirmed
12 A. Reis
25 H. Silva
6 J. G. Passas Luciano
14 Eddy
3 L. Moreira
5 M. Varela
8 Kika
17 Pipo
7 Ushindi
9 G. Matos Monteiro
31 D. Mendes
Coach · –
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
União de Leiria
Formation not confirmed
80 C. Joel
3 M. Baro
11 Jair da Silva
17 P. Fernandez
18 Tharlley
21 Jaiminho
29 D. Loppy
34 Quilma
44 Marcelo
68 Maga
98 Guirassy
Coach · Fabio Pereira
Substitutes
99 · J. Odehnal
6 · E. Kouassi
7 · N. Ondo
8 · Reko
9 · J. Munoz
16 · Ze Pedro
25 · D. Amado
79 · P. Oliveira
88 · D. Martins
Bragança
Formation not confirmed
12 A. Reis
25 H. Silva
6 J. G. Passas Luciano
14 Eddy
3 L. Moreira
5 M. Varela
8 Kika
17 Pipo
7 Ushindi
9 G. Matos Monteiro
31 D. Mendes
Coach · –
We make União de Leiria a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 77% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| União de Leiria win | 68% | 77% | −9 |
| Draw | 19% | 16% | +3 |
| Bragança win | 13% | 7% | +6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 41% | +11 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 40% | −2 |
| União de Leiria or draw | 87% | 93% | −6 |
| União de Leiria clean sheet | 42% | – | – |
| Bragança clean sheet | 11% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2022/23No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 30 Aug
UNIÃO DE LEIRIA
BRAGANÇA