Tondela v Alverca

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Alverca win at 39%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Alverca 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 35–26–39
3. 1′KICK-OFF Tondela v Alverca
4. 26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Tondela
5. 40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Alverca win 32%)
6. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Tondela
7. 45′SECOND HALF Tondela 0–0 Alverca
8. 46′HALF-TIME Tondela 0–0 Alverca
9. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Alverca win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
10. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 26–47–28
11. 56′We said Alverca at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 25–48–27
12. 62′We said Alverca at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 23–53–24
13. 71′We said Alverca at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 18–63–19
14. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Alverca win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
15. 78′We said Alverca at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 13–73–14
16. 83′We said Alverca at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 8–83–9
17. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Alverca win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
18. 90′We said Alverca at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
19. 90′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 51%. 0–0 · 24–51–25
20. 95′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 56%. 0–0 · 21–56–23
21. 98′A goal for Tondela on 98′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–18–3
22. 98′⚽ GOAL · 98' Tondela 1–0 Alverca
23. 99′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes Tondela likeliest at 79%. 1–0 · 79–18–3
24. 100′🟨 YELLOW · 100' Tondela
25. 107′Tondela score on 105′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
26. 107′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
27. 107′⚽ GOAL · 105' Tondela 2–0 Alverca
28. 121′PENALTY MISSED · 120' Alverca
29. FTFULL TIME Tondela 2–0 Alverca after extra time
30. FTTondela 0–0 Alverca after 90 minutes, as graded · Alverca win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.