Salgueiros v Estoril

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Estoril win at 64%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Estoril was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 13–23–63
3. 1′KICK-OFF Salgueiros v Estoril
4. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Estoril
5. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Estoril win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
6. 35′We said Estoril at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 52%. 0–0 · 14–34–52
7. 42′We said Estoril at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 13–38–49
8. 45′HALF-TIME Salgueiros 0–0 Estoril
9. 45′SECOND HALF Salgueiros 0–0 Estoril
10. 51′We said Estoril at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 13–43–44
11. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Estoril win: 64% at kick-off, 44% now
12. 55′We expected about 2.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 12–46–41
13. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Estoril win 41%)
14. 58′We said Estoril at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 12–49–39
15. 64′We said Estoril at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 11–55–34
16. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Estoril win: 64% at kick-off, 34% now
17. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Estoril
18. 70′We said Estoril at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 9–62–29
19. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Estoril · On: J. Holsgrove · Off: M. Robin
20. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Estoril · On: R. Guitane · Off: Peixinho
21. 74′We said Estoril at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 8–67–24
22. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Estoril win: 64% at kick-off, 24% now
23. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Salgueiros · On: Joel · Off: Ze Thiago
24. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Salgueiros · On: M. Evora · Off: K. Makinde
25. 78′We said Estoril at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 7–74–19
26. 79′We said Estoril at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–0 · 82–16–2
27. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Salgueiros 1–0 Estoril
28. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Estoril win: 64% at kick-off, 2% now
29. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Salgueiros win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 16%)
30. 80′Salgueiros score on 80′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 83–15–2
31. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Salgueiros
32. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Estoril
33. 88′We said Estoril at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 1–1 · 3–90–7
34. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Salgueiros 1–1 Estoril
35. 88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Salgueiros win 3%)
36. 89′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–1 · 2–91–6
37. 89′Estoril find the net on 89′. 1–1. 1–1 · 2–91–6
38. 90′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 51%. 1–1 · 12–51–38
39. 97′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 58%. 1–1 · 10–58–32
40. 120′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. The shoot-out decides who goes through - our model does not price it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
41. 120′Estoril find the net on 89′. 1–1. 1–1 · 0–100–0
42. FTFULL TIME Salgueiros 1–1 Estoril
43. FTSalgueiros 1–1 Estoril after 90 minutes, as graded · Estoril win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.